Lincoln 0-0 Wigan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lincoln at 43% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Lincoln face Wigan.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
LNER Stadium plays host to Lincoln versus Wigan in League One (matchday 7). Kick-off: Saturday 21 September 2024 at 13:30 UK time.
Form
Lincoln (all games): 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Lincoln at home: 6W 1D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Wigan's record over their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Wigan's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 1D 5L (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.70 for Lincoln, 1.70 for Wigan — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 4 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Lincoln, 2 for Wigan and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 13 Apr 2024, ended Lincoln 1–2 Wigan — a Wigan win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
Lincoln half-time and goal-timing data (last 51 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Wigan half-time and goal-timing data (last 51 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 96% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lincoln 45% versus Wigan 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lincoln 41% | Wigan 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lincoln 1.63 xG and Wigan 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lincoln attack 1.204 / defence 0.980 | Wigan attack 1.197 / defence 1.030. League average goals — home 1.317 / away 1.215. Data: built from Lincoln's last 51 games and Wigan's last 51.
Result probabilities: Lincoln 43% | Draw 24% | Wigan 34%. Fair-value odds: Lincoln 2.35 | Draw 4.18 | Wigan 2.98. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (1.63 / 1.43) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lincoln at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lincoln if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.06 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Lincoln's last 10 home games and Wigan's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Lincoln 30% (last 10 home games) | Wigan 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lincoln vs Wigan | Competition: League One, matchday 7 | Venue: LNER Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 21 September 2024 at 13:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lincoln 43% | Draw 24% | Wigan 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% (Under 41%) | BTTS Yes 61% (No 39%) | xG Lincoln 1.63 / Wigan 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Lincoln attack 1.204 / def 0.980 | Wigan attack 1.197 / def 1.030 | league avg home 1.317 / away 1.215 • Poisson stance: Lincoln (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
Lincoln xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Wigan xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Lincoln vs Wigan FAQs
What time does Lincoln vs Wigan kick off?
Lincoln vs Wigan kicked off at 13:30 UK time on Saturday 21 September 2024 at LNER Stadium.
What was the final score in Lincoln vs Wigan?
Lincoln 0 - 0 Wigan.
Where is Lincoln vs Wigan being played?
The match is being played at LNER Stadium.
What competition is Lincoln vs Wigan part of?
Lincoln vs Wigan is a League One fixture (matchday 7) (England).
Who is favourite to win Lincoln vs Wigan?
Our statistical model gives Lincoln a 43% chance of winning, Wigan a 34% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Lincoln the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lincoln vs Wigan?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Lincoln and Wigan will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Lincoln vs Wigan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Lincoln's attack at 1.20x the league average against Wigan's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.63 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Wigan's attack (1.20x) against Lincoln's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.43.
These ratings are built from Lincoln's last 51 games and Wigan's last 51 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lincoln Win
43%
2.35
24%
4.18
34%
2.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 2
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
Lincoln xG
Total xG
3.06
1.43
Wigan xG
2.35
43%
Home win
4.18
24%
Draw
2.98
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.57
Clean Sheet
24%
4.16
20%
5.12
Win to Nil
10%
9.78
7%
15.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 6.7 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 10.9 | 7.8 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.9 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.9 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Lincoln vs Wigan Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Lincoln vs Wigan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Lincoln and Wigan expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Lincoln and 1.43 for Wigan, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Lincoln vs Wigan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 51 outings, Lincoln have picked up 1.65 PPG on a 23W 15D 13L record — W-L-W-W-D across the most recent five.
Wigan's form line: 22W 10D 19L from 51 games, 1.49 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.65 PPG for Lincoln against 1.49 for Wigan. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Lincoln have posted 1.60 PPG from their last 25 home games (11W 7D 7L).
On the road, Wigan have gone 7W 6D 12L from their last 25 away games — 1.08 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.49 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Wigan's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lincoln come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Lincoln are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game recently; Wigan are on 1.35 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Defensively: Lincoln have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lincoln
Early Season
Wigan
Early Season
Lincoln (Home) vs Wigan (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Lincoln
Early Season
Wigan
Early Season
❓ Lincoln vs Wigan Form FAQs
What form are Lincoln and Wigan in coming into this match?
Lincoln have gone 23W 15D 13L in their last 51 games (1.65 PPG), while Wigan have gone 22W 10D 19L in their last 51 (1.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lincoln at home or Wigan away?
Lincoln's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lincoln at home: 1.60 PPG; Wigan away: 1.08 PPG.
Have Lincoln or Wigan been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lincoln have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Wigan in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 8 H2H matches between Lincoln and Wigan, the earliest from October 2021. All of them came in League One. The most recent was on 31 January 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lincoln have gone 0W 2D 2L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Wigan — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Lincoln
4
Draws
2
Wigan
Recent Meetings
❓ Lincoln vs Wigan H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Lincoln and Wigan?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Lincoln have won 2, Wigan have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Lincoln and Wigan last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 31 January 2026: Wigan 0-1 Lincoln.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Lincoln are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Wigan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 96% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lincoln 40%, Wigan 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Lincoln) and 56% (Wigan).
On the defensive side: Lincoln keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Lincoln have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lincoln home games / Wigan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Lincoln vs Wigan Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Lincoln and Wigan matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Lincoln's recent matches and 68% of Wigan's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Lincoln and Wigan matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Lincoln's recent games and 56% of Wigan's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lincoln and Wigan matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of Lincoln's recent matches and 96% of Wigan's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Lincoln's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at LNER Stadium, Regular Season - 7, as Lincoln and Wigan drew 0-0 in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lincoln 1.63 xG and Wigan 1.43 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Lincoln fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Wigan landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lincoln attack 1.20 / defence 0.98 against Wigan attack 1.20 / defence 1.03, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lincoln 43% | Draw 24% | Wigan 34%, with Lincoln to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lincoln 41%, Wigan 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lincoln's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Wigan's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lincoln 1.65 PPG, Wigan 1.49 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Lincoln (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.64 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.80 average — tighter than their form line. Wigan (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.64 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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