Lincoln 1-1 Port Vale – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lincoln at 56% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Lincoln face Port Vale.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
LNER Stadium plays host to Lincoln versus Port Vale in League One (matchday 17). Kick-off: Saturday 11 November 2023 at 15:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Lincoln have collected 1.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L W W D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Lincoln at home: 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Lincoln are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Port Vale's record over their last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L (0.80 PPG). Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Port Vale away from home: 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Lincoln, 0.80 for Port Vale — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 2 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 1 apiece, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 2 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 15 Apr 2023, ended Lincoln 3–2 Port Vale — a Lincoln win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Lincoln — key trading statistics (last 61 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; of the 23 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 23% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Port Vale — key trading statistics (last 61 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lincoln 43% versus Port Vale 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lincoln 31% | Port Vale 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lincoln 1.60 xG and Port Vale 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lincoln attack 1.034 / defence 0.860 | Port Vale attack 0.802 / defence 1.162. League average goals — home 1.328 / away 1.151. Data: built from Lincoln's last 61 games and Port Vale's last 61.
Result probabilities: Lincoln 56% | Draw 26% | Port Vale 18%. Fair-value odds: Lincoln 1.79 | Draw 3.84 | Port Vale 5.55. The model has a clear lean to Lincoln (56%) — a 30pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lincoln are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.39 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 56%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Lincoln 20% (last 10 home games) | Port Vale 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lincoln vs Port Vale | Competition: League One, matchday 17 | Venue: LNER Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 11 November 2023 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lincoln 56% | Draw 26% | Port Vale 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 44% (No 56%) | xG Lincoln 1.60 / Port Vale 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Lincoln attack 1.034 / def 0.860 | Port Vale attack 0.802 / def 1.162 | league avg home 1.328 / away 1.151 • Poisson stance: Lincoln (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Lincoln xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Port Vale xG
44%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Lincoln vs Port Vale FAQs
What time does Lincoln vs Port Vale kick off?
Lincoln vs Port Vale kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 11 November 2023 at LNER Stadium.
What was the final score in Lincoln vs Port Vale?
Lincoln 1 - 1 Port Vale.
Where is Lincoln vs Port Vale being played?
The match is being played at LNER Stadium.
What competition is Lincoln vs Port Vale part of?
Lincoln vs Port Vale is a League One fixture (matchday 17) (England).
Who is favourite to win Lincoln vs Port Vale?
Our statistical model gives Lincoln a 56% chance of winning, Port Vale a 18% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Lincoln the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lincoln vs Port Vale?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Lincoln and Port Vale will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (56%).
Will Lincoln vs Port Vale have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Lincoln's attack at 1.03x the league average against Port Vale's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 1.60 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Port Vale's attack (0.80x) against Lincoln's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 0.79.
These ratings are built from Lincoln's last 61 games and Port Vale's last 61 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (13.1%), 2-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lincoln Win
56%
1.79
26%
3.84
18%
5.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.7%
Home win
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Lincoln xG
Total xG
2.39
0.79
Port Vale xG
1.79
56%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
5.55
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.26
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
45%
2.21
20%
4.93
Win to Nil
25%
3.96
4%
27.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 7.3 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.6 | 11.6 | 4.6 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.7 | 9.3 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.2 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Lincoln vs Port Vale Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Lincoln vs Port Vale?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Lincoln and Port Vale expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Lincoln and 0.79 for Port Vale, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Lincoln vs Port Vale?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 61 outings, Lincoln have picked up 1.38 PPG on a 20W 24D 17L record — L-W-W-D-L across the most recent five.
Port Vale's form line: 18W 13D 30L from 61 games, 1.10 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.38 PPG for Lincoln against 1.10 for Port Vale. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Lincoln have posted 1.60 PPG from their last 30 home games (11W 15D 4L).
On the road, Port Vale have gone 7W 8D 15L from their last 30 away games — 0.97 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lincoln come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Lincoln are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; Port Vale are on 0.98 scored and 1.54 conceded.
Defensively: Lincoln have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 61 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lincoln
Blended
Port Vale
Blended
Lincoln (Home) vs Port Vale (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Lincoln
Blended
Port Vale
Blended
❓ Lincoln vs Port Vale Form FAQs
What form are Lincoln and Port Vale in coming into this match?
Lincoln have gone 20W 24D 17L in their last 61 games (1.38 PPG), while Port Vale have gone 18W 13D 30L in their last 61 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lincoln at home or Port Vale away?
Lincoln's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lincoln at home: 1.60 PPG; Port Vale away: 0.97 PPG.
Have Lincoln or Port Vale been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lincoln have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Port Vale in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 6 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in League One. The most recent was on 2 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Lincoln have won the most recent 3 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lincoln have gone 2W 1D 0L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Port Vale — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Lincoln
1
Draws
1
Port Vale
Recent Meetings
❓ Lincoln vs Port Vale H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Lincoln and Port Vale?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Lincoln have won 4, Port Vale have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Lincoln and Port Vale last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 May 2026: Port Vale 0-2 Lincoln.
Who has won more matches between Lincoln and Port Vale?
Lincoln have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Lincoln are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 60% of those situations.
Port Vale are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lincoln 43%, Port Vale 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 23% (Lincoln) and 57% (Port Vale).
On the defensive side: Lincoln keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Lincoln have failed to score in 30% of games; Port Vale in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lincoln home games / Port Vale away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Lincoln vs Port Vale Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Lincoln and Port Vale matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Lincoln's recent matches and 50% of Port Vale's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Lincoln and Port Vale matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 23% of Lincoln's recent games and 57% of Port Vale's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lincoln and Port Vale matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 60% of Lincoln's recent matches and 63% of Port Vale's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lincoln and Port Vale share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lincoln and Port Vale finished level at 1-1 at LNER Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lincoln 1.60 xG and Port Vale 0.79 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lincoln attack 1.03 / defence 0.86 against Port Vale attack 0.80 / defence 1.16, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lincoln 56% | Draw 26% | Port Vale 18%, with Lincoln to win its most likely call at 56%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lincoln 31%, Port Vale 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lincoln's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Port Vale's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lincoln 1.38 PPG, Port Vale 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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