Ipswich 2-1 Peterborough – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ipswich at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ipswich vs Peterborough fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League One encounter, Regular Season - 21 sees Peterborough travel to Portman Road to take on Ipswich. The game is scheduled for Saturday 10 December 2022, 12:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Ipswich — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 League One outings this season, averaging 2.10 points per game. Last five: W D D W D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Ipswich, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Portman Road, Ipswich have gone 5W 4D 1L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all League One games this season, Peterborough have recorded 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W L L L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Peterborough, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in League One this season, Peterborough have posted 3W 0D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Ipswich are in the better shape of the two on current League One data — 0.50 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 1.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Trading Patterns
Ipswich in-play and half-time data (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Peterborough in-play and half-time data (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ipswich 50% versus Peterborough 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ipswich 47% | Peterborough 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ipswich 1.93 xG and Peterborough 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ipswich attack 1.137 / defence 0.846 | Peterborough attack 0.924 / defence 1.341. League average goals — home 1.263 / away 1.195. Peterborough bring a strong defensive rating of 1.341 — this is suppressing Ipswich's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 66 Ipswich games / 20 Peterborough games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ipswich 60% | Draw 22% | Peterborough 18%. Fair-value odds: Ipswich 1.67 | Draw 4.55 | Peterborough 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Ipswich (60%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.86. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.86 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ipswich are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.86 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Ipswich 50% | Peterborough 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ipswich vs Peterborough | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Portman Road • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Dec 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ipswich 60% | Draw 22% | Peterborough 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 52% | xG Ipswich 1.93 / Peterborough 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Ipswich attack 1.137 / def 0.846 | Peterborough attack 0.924 / def 1.341 | league avg home 1.263 / away 1.195 • Poisson stance: Ipswich (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.93
Ipswich xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Peterborough xG
52%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ipswich vs Peterborough kick off?
Ipswich vs Peterborough kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 10 December 2022 at Portman Road.
What was the final score in Ipswich vs Peterborough?
Ipswich 2 - 1 Peterborough.
Where is Ipswich vs Peterborough being played?
The match is being played at Portman Road.
What competition is Ipswich vs Peterborough part of?
Ipswich vs Peterborough is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Ipswich vs Peterborough?
Our statistical model gives Ipswich a 60% chance of winning, Peterborough a 18% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Ipswich the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ipswich vs Peterborough?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Ipswich and Peterborough will score (BTTS).
Will Ipswich vs Peterborough have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ipswich and Peterborough?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ipswich and Peterborough in?
Ipswich (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-D-W-D. Peterborough (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Ipswich's attack rating (1.14) and Peterborough's defence rating (1.34), the model arrives at 1.93 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Peterborough's attack versus Ipswich's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 66/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.6%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.6%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ipswich Win
60%
1.65
22%
4.57
18%
5.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.93
Ipswich xG
Total xG
2.86
0.93
Peterborough xG
1.65
60%
Home win
4.57
22%
Draw
5.68
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
39%
2.54
15%
6.86
Win to Nil
24%
4.21
3%
38.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.0 | 10.3 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.9 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.8 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.3 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ipswich vs Peterborough?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Ipswich and Peterborough expected to score?
The model projects 1.93 expected goals for Ipswich and 0.93 for Peterborough, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Ipswich vs Peterborough?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 66 outings, Ipswich have picked up 1.70 PPG on a 30W 22D 14L record — W-D-D-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Ipswich is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Peterborough's form line: 19W 11D 36L from 66 games, 1.03 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-L. The sample for Peterborough is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Ipswich are the form team by 0.67 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Peterborough.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Ipswich have posted 1.85 PPG from 33 outings (16W 13D 4L).
On the road, Peterborough have gone 6W 3D 24L from 33 away games — 0.64 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ipswich come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Ipswich are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Peterborough are on 1.18 scored and 1.70 conceded.
Defensively: Ipswich have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 66 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ipswich
Blended
Peterborough
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ipswich and Peterborough in coming into this match?
Ipswich have gone 30W 22D 14L in their last 66 games (1.70 PPG), while Peterborough have gone 19W 11D 36L in their last 66 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ipswich at home or Peterborough away?
Ipswich's home record (1.85 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ipswich at home: 1.85 PPG; Peterborough away: 0.64 PPG.
Have Ipswich or Peterborough been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ipswich have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Peterborough in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ipswich and Peterborough runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Ipswich
0
Draws
0
Peterborough
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ipswich and Peterborough?
From 2 meetings on record, Ipswich have won 2, Peterborough have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ipswich and Peterborough last play each other?
They last met on 22 April 2023, when Peterborough 0-3 Ipswich.
Who has won more matches between Ipswich and Peterborough?
Ipswich have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ipswich are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Peterborough are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ipswich 48%, Peterborough 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Ipswich) and 67% (Peterborough). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ipswich keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Peterborough in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ipswich home games / Peterborough away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ipswich play Peterborough?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Ipswich's recent matches and 48% of Peterborough's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ipswich vs Peterborough usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 48% of Ipswich's matches and 67% of Peterborough's.
Do Ipswich and Peterborough tend to score early?
Ipswich have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Peterborough in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ipswich edge out Peterborough 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ipswich beat Peterborough 2-1 at Portman Road, Regular Season - 21, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ipswich 1.93 xG and Peterborough 0.93 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ipswich attack 1.14 / defence 0.85 against Peterborough attack 0.92 / defence 1.34, drawn from 66/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ipswich 60% | Draw 22% | Peterborough 18%, with Ipswich to win its most likely call at 60%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ipswich 47%, Peterborough 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ipswich's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Peterborough's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Ipswich arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 1.03. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.