Ipswich 4-0 Charlton – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Ipswich at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ipswich vs Charlton fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Portman Road plays host to Ipswich versus Charlton in League One, Regular Season - 46. Kick-off: Saturday 30 April 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Ipswich have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: L D L D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home at Portman Road, Ipswich have gone 6W 3D 1L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Portman Road. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Ipswich are significantly better at Portman Road than their overall form suggests.
Charlton (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 League One outings this term — 1.90 points per game. Last five: D W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
When travelling in League One this season, Charlton have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Charlton arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 1.40) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Ipswich, 1 for Charlton and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Dec 2021, ended 0–2 with Charlton winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Ipswich half-time and goal-timing data (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Charlton half-time and goal-timing data (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ipswich 49% versus Charlton 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ipswich 42% | Charlton 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ipswich 1.00 xG and Charlton 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ipswich attack 0.877 / defence 0.873 | Charlton attack 0.818 / defence 0.998. League average goals — home 1.140 / away 1.150. Data: 45 Ipswich games / 45 Charlton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ipswich 37% | Draw 36% | Charlton 27%. Fair-value odds: Ipswich 2.70 | Draw 2.78 | Charlton 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.82. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.82 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ipswich at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Charlton (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 36% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ipswich if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.82 combined xG gives a 27% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 37%. Form rates corroborate: Ipswich 20% | Charlton 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ipswich vs Charlton | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 46 | Venue: Portman Road • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Apr 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ipswich 37% | Draw 36% | Charlton 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 37% | xG Ipswich 1.00 / Charlton 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Ipswich attack 0.877 / def 0.873 | Charlton attack 0.818 / def 0.998 | league avg home 1.140 / away 1.150 • Poisson stance: Ipswich (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Ipswich xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Charlton xG
37%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ipswich vs Charlton kick off?
Ipswich vs Charlton kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 30 April 2022 at Portman Road.
What was the final score in Ipswich vs Charlton?
Ipswich 4 - 0 Charlton.
Where is Ipswich vs Charlton being played?
The match is being played at Portman Road.
What competition is Ipswich vs Charlton part of?
Ipswich vs Charlton is a Regular Season - 46 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Ipswich vs Charlton?
Our statistical model gives Ipswich a 37% chance of winning, Charlton a 27% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Ipswich the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ipswich vs Charlton?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Ipswich and Charlton will score (BTTS).
Will Ipswich vs Charlton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ipswich and Charlton?
Record (1 meetings): Ipswich 0W | Draws 0 | Charlton 1W.
What form are Ipswich and Charlton in?
Ipswich (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-D-L-D-D. Charlton (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Ipswich's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Charlton's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.00. Flip it around — Charlton's attack (0.82x) against Ipswich's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 0.82.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 17.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 1-0 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ipswich Win
37%
2.73
36%
2.74
27%
3.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
16.2%
Home win
0 – 1
13.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Ipswich xG
Total xG
1.82
0.82
Charlton xG
2.73
37%
Home win
2.74
36%
Draw
3.71
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.68
63%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
44%
2.27
37%
2.71
Win to Nil
16%
6.21
10%
10.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.2 | 13.3 | 5.5 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 16.2 | 13.3 | 5.5 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 6.6 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ipswich vs Charlton?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.9%.
How many goals are Ipswich and Charlton expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Ipswich and 0.82 for Charlton, a combined total of 1.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Ipswich vs Charlton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Ipswich's recent record stands at 17W 16D 12L from 45 games, a 1.49 PPG return, with L-D-L-D-D in the last five.
Charlton, meanwhile, have gone 17W 8D 20L across 45 games — 1.31 PPG, with D-W-L-W-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.49 PPG for Ipswich against 1.31 for Charlton. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Ipswich have managed 10W 9D 3L from 22 games — 1.77 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Charlton's away record stands at 7W 4D 11L across 22 trips, a 1.14 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ipswich come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Ipswich are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Charlton are on 1.22 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Defensively: Ipswich have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games; Charlton in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ipswich
Current Season
Charlton
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ipswich and Charlton in coming into this match?
Ipswich have gone 17W 16D 12L in their last 45 games (1.49 PPG), while Charlton have gone 17W 8D 20L in their last 45 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ipswich at home or Charlton away?
Ipswich's home record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ipswich at home: 1.77 PPG; Charlton away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Ipswich or Charlton been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ipswich have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Charlton in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League One, Championship all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 22 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ipswich won 6-0 on 15 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ipswich have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Charlton — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Ipswich
1
Draws
2
Charlton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ipswich and Charlton?
From 6 meetings on record, Ipswich have won 3, Charlton have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ipswich and Charlton last play each other?
They last met on 22 April 2026, when Charlton 1-2 Ipswich.
Who has won more matches between Ipswich and Charlton?
Ipswich have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ipswich are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Charlton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ipswich 50%, Charlton 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Ipswich) and 50% (Charlton).
On the defensive side: Ipswich keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ipswich home games / Charlton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ipswich play Charlton?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Ipswich's games and 64% of Charlton's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ipswich vs Charlton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Ipswich's recent games and 50% of Charlton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ipswich and Charlton tend to score early?
Ipswich have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Charlton in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Ipswich run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Charlton.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ipswich beat Charlton 4-0 at Portman Road, Regular Season - 46, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ipswich 1.00 xG and Charlton 0.82 xG, a combined 1.82. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Ipswich beat their projection by 3.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Charlton landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ipswich attack 0.88 / defence 0.87 against Charlton attack 0.82 / defence 1.00, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ipswich 37% | Draw 36% | Charlton 27%, with Ipswich to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. Over 3.5 was 11% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ipswich 42%, Charlton 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ipswich's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Charlton's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ipswich 1.49 PPG, Charlton 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ipswich win broke the near-deadlock. Ipswich (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.55 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Charlton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.05 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.23 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.