Forest Green 2-1 Accrington ST – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Accrington ST at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Forest Green vs Accrington ST encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Forest Green and Accrington ST meet at The Bolt New Lawn in League One, Regular Season - 4. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 6 September 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Forest Green's overall League One record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Forest Green have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Forest Green at The Bolt New Lawn this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Forest Green are significantly better at The Bolt New Lawn than their overall form suggests.
Accrington ST (all games): 3W 5D 2L across 10 League One outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: W D D D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Accrington ST have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in League One this season, Accrington ST have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.
On a straight form reading, Accrington ST are the stronger side — 0.80 PPG clear of the hosts (1.40 vs 0.60). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading & In-Play
Forest Green — key trading statistics (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 28% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (home games).
Accrington ST — key trading statistics (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Forest Green 48% versus Accrington ST 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Forest Green 40% | Accrington ST 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Forest Green 0.86 xG and Accrington ST 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Forest Green attack 0.619 / defence 1.419 | Accrington ST attack 0.951 / defence 1.025. League average goals — home 1.352 / away 1.139. Forest Green's attack strength of 0.619 is below the league average — the 0.86 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 6 Forest Green games / 52 Accrington ST games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Forest Green 20% | Draw 28% | Accrington ST 52%. Fair-value odds: Forest Green 5.00 | Draw 3.57 | Accrington ST 1.92. Accrington ST hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Accrington ST at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Accrington ST if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.40 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Forest Green 40% | Accrington ST 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Forest Green vs Accrington ST | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: The Bolt New Lawn • Kick-off: Tuesday 6 Sep 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Forest Green 20% | Draw 28% | Accrington ST 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 46% | xG Forest Green 0.86 / Accrington ST 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: Forest Green attack 0.619 / def 1.419 | Accrington ST attack 0.951 / def 1.025 | league avg home 1.352 / away 1.139 • Poisson stance: Accrington ST (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.86
Forest Green xG
Expected Goals
1.54
Accrington ST xG
46%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Forest Green vs Accrington ST kick off?
Forest Green vs Accrington ST kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 6 September 2022 at The Bolt New Lawn.
What was the final score in Forest Green vs Accrington ST?
Forest Green 2 - 1 Accrington ST.
Where is Forest Green vs Accrington ST being played?
The match is being played at The Bolt New Lawn.
What competition is Forest Green vs Accrington ST part of?
Forest Green vs Accrington ST is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Forest Green vs Accrington ST?
Our statistical model gives Forest Green a 20% chance of winning, Accrington ST a 52% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Accrington ST the favourite.
Will both teams score in Forest Green vs Accrington ST?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Forest Green and Accrington ST will score (BTTS).
Will Forest Green vs Accrington ST have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Forest Green and Accrington ST?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Forest Green and Accrington ST in?
Forest Green (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. Accrington ST (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Forest Green's attack at 0.62x the league average against Accrington ST's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 0.86 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Accrington ST's attack (0.95x) against Forest Green's defence (1.42x) — and the away total comes out at 1.54.
These ratings are built from 6/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (12.5%), 0-2 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Accrington ST Win
20%
5.03
28%
3.58
52%
1.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
0 – 2
10.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.86
Forest Green xG
Total xG
2.40
1.54
Accrington ST xG
5.03
20%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
1.92
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
22%
4.65
42%
2.36
Win to Nil
4%
23.37
22%
4.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 14.0 | 10.8 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 12.0 | 9.2 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 5.2 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Forest Green vs Accrington ST?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Forest Green and Accrington ST expected to score?
The model projects 0.86 expected goals for Forest Green and 1.54 for Accrington ST, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Forest Green vs Accrington ST?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Forest Green's recent record stands at 24W 16D 12L from 52 games, a 1.69 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Forest Green, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Accrington ST, meanwhile, have gone 18W 14D 20L across 52 games — 1.31 PPG, with W-D-D-D-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Accrington ST, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.69 PPG for Forest Green against 1.31 for Accrington ST. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Forest Green have managed 13W 4D 8L from 25 games — 1.72 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Accrington ST's away record stands at 6W 5D 14L across 25 trips, a 0.92 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Forest Green come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Forest Green are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Accrington ST are on 1.33 scored and 1.71 conceded.
Defensively: Forest Green have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 52 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Forest Green
Early Season
Accrington ST
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Forest Green and Accrington ST in coming into this match?
Forest Green have gone 24W 16D 12L in their last 52 games (1.69 PPG), while Accrington ST have gone 18W 14D 20L in their last 52 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Forest Green at home or Accrington ST away?
Forest Green's home record (1.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Forest Green at home: 1.72 PPG; Accrington ST away: 0.92 PPG.
Have Forest Green or Accrington ST been keeping clean sheets recently?
Forest Green have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Accrington ST in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since September 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League One, League Two all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 January 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Accrington ST have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Forest Green have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Accrington ST — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Forest Green
0
Draws
3
Accrington ST
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Forest Green and Accrington ST?
From 4 meetings on record, Forest Green have won 1, Accrington ST have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Forest Green and Accrington ST last play each other?
They last met on 27 January 2024, when Forest Green 0-1 Accrington ST.
Who has won more matches between Forest Green and Accrington ST?
Accrington ST have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Forest Green are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Accrington ST are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Forest Green 28%, Accrington ST 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 28% (Forest Green) and 52% (Accrington ST).
On the defensive side: Forest Green keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Forest Green have failed to score in 32% of games; Accrington ST in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Forest Green home games / Accrington ST away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Forest Green play Accrington ST?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 28% of Forest Green's recent matches and 44% of Accrington ST's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Forest Green vs Accrington ST usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 28% of Forest Green's recent games and 52% of Accrington ST's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Forest Green and Accrington ST tend to score early?
Forest Green have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Accrington ST in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Forest Green defy the odds to beat Accrington ST 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Forest Green beat Accrington ST 2-1 at The Bolt New Lawn, Regular Season - 4, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Forest Green 0.86 xG and Accrington ST 1.54 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Forest Green beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Forest Green attack 0.62 / defence 1.42 against Accrington ST attack 0.95 / defence 1.02, drawn from 6/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Forest Green 20% | Draw 28% | Accrington ST 52%, with Accrington ST to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Forest Green win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Forest Green 40%, Accrington ST 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Forest Green's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Accrington ST's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Forest Green 1.69 PPG, Accrington ST 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Forest Green win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.