Fleetwood Town 0-1 Burton Albion – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Fleetwood Town at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fleetwood Town vs Burton Albion fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Highbury Stadium plays host to Fleetwood Town versus Burton Albion in League One, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off: Tuesday 19 October 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Fleetwood Town have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: D D D L W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Fleetwood Town, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Fleetwood Town have posted 2W 1D 2L at Highbury Stadium — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Burton Albion (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 League One outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: L W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Burton Albion, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in League One this season, Burton Albion have posted 1W 2D 3L from 6 away outings — 0.83 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Fleetwood Town, 1.00 for Burton Albion — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading Data
Fleetwood Town goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Burton Albion goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Fleetwood Town 73% and Burton Albion 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fleetwood Town 73% | Burton Albion 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fleetwood Town 1.53 xG and Burton Albion 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fleetwood Town attack 1.082 / defence 1.266 | Burton Albion attack 0.556 / defence 1.194. League average goals — home 1.185 / away 1.292. Data: 11 Fleetwood Town games / 13 Burton Albion games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fleetwood Town 52% | Draw 26% | Burton Albion 22%. Fair-value odds: Fleetwood Town 1.92 | Draw 3.85 | Burton Albion 4.55. Fleetwood Town hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fleetwood Town at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fleetwood Town if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.44 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates are neutral: Fleetwood Town 60% | Burton Albion 33%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fleetwood Town vs Burton Albion | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Highbury Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 19 Oct 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fleetwood Town 52% | Draw 26% | Burton Albion 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 47% | xG Fleetwood Town 1.53 / Burton Albion 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Fleetwood Town attack 1.082 / def 1.266 | Burton Albion attack 0.556 / def 1.194 | league avg home 1.185 / away 1.292 • Poisson stance: Fleetwood Town (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Fleetwood Town xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Burton Albion xG
47%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fleetwood Town vs Burton Albion kick off?
Fleetwood Town vs Burton Albion kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 19 October 2021 at Highbury Stadium.
What was the final score in Fleetwood Town vs Burton Albion?
Fleetwood Town 0 - 1 Burton Albion.
Where is Fleetwood Town vs Burton Albion being played?
The match is being played at Highbury Stadium.
What competition is Fleetwood Town vs Burton Albion part of?
Fleetwood Town vs Burton Albion is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Fleetwood Town vs Burton Albion?
Our statistical model gives Fleetwood Town a 52% chance of winning, Burton Albion a 22% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Fleetwood Town the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fleetwood Town vs Burton Albion?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Fleetwood Town and Burton Albion will score (BTTS).
Will Fleetwood Town vs Burton Albion have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fleetwood Town and Burton Albion?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Fleetwood Town and Burton Albion in?
Fleetwood Town (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-D-L-W. Burton Albion (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Fleetwood Town's attack rating (1.08) and Burton Albion's defence rating (1.19), the model arrives at 1.53 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Burton Albion's attack (0.56x) against Fleetwood Town's defence (1.27x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
These ratings are built from 11/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.8%), 0-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fleetwood Town Win
52%
1.93
26%
3.88
22%
4.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Fleetwood Town xG
Total xG
2.44
0.91
Burton Albion xG
1.93
52%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
4.46
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
40%
2.48
22%
4.62
Win to Nil
21%
4.80
5%
20.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 7.9 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.3 | 12.1 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.3 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fleetwood Town vs Burton Albion?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Fleetwood Town and Burton Albion expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Fleetwood Town and 0.91 for Burton Albion, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Fleetwood Town vs Burton Albion?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Fleetwood Town's recent record stands at 3W 4D 4L from 11 games, a 1.18 PPG return, with D-D-D-L-W in the last five. The sample for Fleetwood Town is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Burton Albion, meanwhile, have gone 3W 4D 4L across 11 games — 1.18 PPG, with L-W-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for Burton Albion is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.18 PPG for Fleetwood Town against 1.18 for Burton Albion. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Fleetwood Town have managed 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — 1.40 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Burton Albion's away record stands at 0W 2D 3L across 5 trips, a 0.40 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.18 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Burton Albion's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fleetwood Town come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Fleetwood Town are averaging 1.82 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Burton Albion are on 1.00 scored and 1.36 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fleetwood Town have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games; Burton Albion in 64%.
Last 11 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fleetwood Town
Blended
Burton Albion
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fleetwood Town and Burton Albion in coming into this match?
Fleetwood Town have gone 3W 4D 4L in their last 11 games (1.18 PPG), while Burton Albion have gone 3W 4D 4L in their last 11 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fleetwood Town at home or Burton Albion away?
Fleetwood Town's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fleetwood Town at home: 1.40 PPG; Burton Albion away: 0.40 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fleetwood Town won 3-0 on 27 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fleetwood Town have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Burton Albion — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Fleetwood Town
1
Draws
3
Burton Albion
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fleetwood Town and Burton Albion?
From 6 meetings on record, Fleetwood Town have won 2, Burton Albion have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Fleetwood Town and Burton Albion last play each other?
They last met on 27 April 2024, when Fleetwood Town 3-0 Burton Albion.
Who has won more matches between Fleetwood Town and Burton Albion?
Burton Albion have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Fleetwood Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Burton Albion see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fleetwood Town 60%, Burton Albion 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for Fleetwood Town and 40% for Burton Albion. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Burton Albion in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fleetwood Town home games / Burton Albion away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fleetwood Town play Burton Albion?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Fleetwood Town's recent matches and 40% of Burton Albion's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fleetwood Town vs Burton Albion usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Fleetwood Town's matches and 40% of Burton Albion's.
Do Fleetwood Town and Burton Albion tend to score early?
Fleetwood Town have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Burton Albion in 40% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Burton Albion defy the odds to beat Fleetwood Town 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Burton Albion beat Fleetwood Town 0-1 at Highbury Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fleetwood Town 1.53 xG and Burton Albion 0.91 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Fleetwood Town fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fleetwood Town attack 1.08 / defence 1.27 against Burton Albion attack 0.56 / defence 1.19, drawn from 11/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fleetwood Town 52% | Draw 26% | Burton Albion 22%, with Fleetwood Town to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Burton Albion win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fleetwood Town 73%, Burton Albion 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fleetwood Town's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did not.
Burton Albion's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fleetwood Town 1.18 PPG, Burton Albion 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Burton Albion win broke the near-deadlock. Fleetwood Town (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward. Burton Albion (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.