Derby 2-1 Wycombe – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Wycombe at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Derby vs Wycombe fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Derby host Wycombe at Pride Park Stadium in League One, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 17 September 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Derby stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 League One matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D D W L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Derby, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Pride Park Stadium, Derby have gone 6W 1D 3L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Derby are significantly better at Pride Park Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Wycombe — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 League One fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Wycombe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Wycombe have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Derby 1.40 PPG, Wycombe 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Derby register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Wycombe in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Profile
Derby in-play tendencies (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Wycombe in-play tendencies (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Derby 48% versus Wycombe 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Derby 39% | Wycombe 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Derby 1.48 xG and Wycombe 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derby attack 1.027 / defence 1.158 | Wycombe attack 1.130 / defence 1.084. League average goals — home 1.326 / away 1.139. Data: 8 Derby games / 54 Wycombe games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Derby 37% | Draw 26% | Wycombe 37%. Fair-value odds: Derby 2.70 | Draw 3.85 | Wycombe 2.70. The draw (26%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.48 / 1.49) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 26% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 37% and away win at 37% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.97 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: Derby 60% | Wycombe 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Derby vs Wycombe | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Pride Park Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Sep 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Derby 37% | Draw 26% | Wycombe 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 61% | xG Derby 1.48 / Wycombe 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Derby attack 1.027 / def 1.158 | Wycombe attack 1.130 / def 1.084 | league avg home 1.326 / away 1.139 • Poisson stance: Draw (26%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Derby xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Wycombe xG
61%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Derby vs Wycombe kick off?
Derby vs Wycombe kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 17 September 2022 at Pride Park Stadium.
What was the final score in Derby vs Wycombe?
Derby 2 - 1 Wycombe.
Where is Derby vs Wycombe being played?
The match is being played at Pride Park Stadium.
What competition is Derby vs Wycombe part of?
Derby vs Wycombe is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Derby vs Wycombe?
Our statistical model gives Derby a 37% chance of winning, Wycombe a 37% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Derby vs Wycombe?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Derby and Wycombe will score (BTTS).
Will Derby vs Wycombe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Wycombe?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Derby and Wycombe in?
Derby (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-W-L-L. Wycombe (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Derby's attack at 1.03x the league average against Wycombe's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 1.48 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Wycombe's attack versus Derby's defence, projects 1.49 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Wycombe Win
37%
2.73
26%
3.82
37%
2.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Derby xG
Total xG
2.97
1.49
Wycombe xG
2.73
37%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
2.68
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.54
Clean Sheet
23%
4.44
23%
4.38
Win to Nil
8%
12.14
9%
11.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 7.7 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.3 | 8.4 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.4 | 6.2 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.1 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Derby vs Wycombe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Derby and Wycombe expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Derby and 1.49 for Wycombe, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Derby vs Wycombe?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Derby's recent record stands at 17W 15D 22L from 54 games, a 1.22 PPG return, with D-D-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Derby is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Wycombe, meanwhile, have gone 25W 15D 14L across 54 games — 1.67 PPG, with L-W-D-D-W in their last five. The sample for Wycombe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Wycombe by 0.45 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Derby heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Derby have managed 14W 7D 6L from 27 games — 1.81 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.22 PPG overall — Derby are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Wycombe's away record stands at 9W 9D 9L across 27 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Derby come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Derby are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Wycombe are on 1.52 scored and 1.13 conceded.
Defensively: Wycombe in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Derby
Blended
Wycombe
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Derby and Wycombe in coming into this match?
Derby have gone 17W 15D 22L in their last 54 games (1.22 PPG), while Wycombe have gone 25W 15D 14L in their last 54 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Derby at home or Wycombe away?
Derby's home record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Derby at home: 1.81 PPG; Wycombe away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Derby or Wycombe been keeping clean sheets recently?
Derby have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Wycombe in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Derby and Wycombe runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Derby's record when hosting Wycombe specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Derby
2
Draws
1
Wycombe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Wycombe?
From 4 meetings on record, Derby have won 1, Wycombe have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Derby and Wycombe last play each other?
They last met on 10 April 2024, when Wycombe 0-0 Derby.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Wycombe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Derby 59%, Wycombe 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Derby) and 48% (Wycombe).
On the defensive side: Derby keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Wycombe in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Derby home games / Wycombe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Derby play Wycombe?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Derby's games and 52% of Wycombe's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Derby vs Wycombe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Derby's recent games and 48% of Wycombe's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Derby and Wycombe tend to score early?
Derby have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Wycombe in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Derby defy the odds to beat Wycombe 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Derby beat Wycombe 2-1 at Pride Park Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Derby 1.48 xG and Wycombe 1.49 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derby attack 1.03 / defence 1.16 against Wycombe attack 1.13 / defence 1.08, drawn from 8/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Derby 37% | Draw 26% | Wycombe 37%, with Derby to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derby 39%, Wycombe 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Derby's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Wycombe's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Wycombe arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.22. Form was overturned, with Derby winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.