Crawley Town 1-1 Stockport County – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Stockport County at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Crawley Town vs Stockport County fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis

Stockport County make the trip to Broadfield Stadium to face Crawley Town in League One, Regular Season - 6. The match kicks off on Saturday 14 September 2024 at 15:00 UTC.

Current Form

Crawley Town's overall League One record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Crawley Town have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

Crawley Town's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Broadfield Stadium this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.

Stockport County have collected 2.50 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 8W 1D 1L. Last five: L W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Stockport County have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

On the road, Stockport County have gone 5W 4D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.90 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. Stockport County are 0.50 PPG clear of Crawley Town in recent League One fixtures (2.50 vs 2.00). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

H2H History

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Crawley Town 1W, Stockport County 1W, 2D.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 18 Mar 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Crawley Town half-time and goal-timing data (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

Stockport County half-time and goal-timing data (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crawley Town 56% versus Stockport County 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crawley Town 58% | Stockport County 56%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Crawley Town 0.95 xG and Stockport County 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crawley Town attack 0.792 / defence 1.236 | Stockport County attack 1.009 / defence 0.912. League average goals — home 1.314 / away 1.171. Crawley Town's attack strength of 0.792 is below the league average — the 0.95 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 4 Crawley Town games / 4 Stockport County games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Crawley Town 25% | Draw 26% | Stockport County 49%. Fair-value odds: Crawley Town 4.00 | Draw 3.85 | Stockport County 2.04. Stockport County hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Stockport County are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Stockport County if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.41 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging only 4.0 goals per meeting point in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Crawley Town 50% | Stockport County 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.

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