Crawley Town 0-1 Charlton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Charlton at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Crawley Town vs Charlton encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League One clash, Regular Season - 24 as Crawley Town welcome Charlton to Broadfield Stadium. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 11 March 2025 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League One games this season, Crawley Town have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: D L L L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters this season, Crawley Town have posted 2W 5D 3L at Broadfield Stadium — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Charlton stand at 7W 2D 1L from 10 League One matches — 2.30 PPG. Last five: L W W W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.50. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Charlton's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Charlton's 2.30 PPG return is 1.40 points per game ahead of Crawley Town's 0.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Crawley Town, 0 for Charlton and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 3 Dec 2024, ended 2–1 with Crawley Town winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Crawley Town in-play and half-time data (81 games, 40 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Charlton in-play and half-time data (81 games, 40 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crawley Town 56% versus Charlton 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crawley Town 56% | Charlton 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crawley Town 1.02 xG and Charlton 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crawley Town attack 0.887 / defence 1.237 | Charlton attack 1.101 / defence 0.929. League average goals — home 1.240 / away 1.120. Data: 35 Crawley Town games / 81 Charlton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Crawley Town 25% | Draw 27% | Charlton 48%. Fair-value odds: Crawley Town 4.00 | Draw 3.70 | Charlton 2.08. Charlton hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Charlton at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Charlton offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.55 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Crawley Town 70% | Charlton 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crawley Town vs Charlton | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Broadfield Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 11 Mar 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crawley Town 25% | Draw 27% | Charlton 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 51% | xG Crawley Town 1.02 / Charlton 1.53 • Poisson strength factors: Crawley Town attack 0.887 / def 1.237 | Charlton attack 1.101 / def 0.929 | league avg home 1.240 / away 1.120 • Poisson stance: Charlton (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Crawley Town xG
Expected Goals
1.53
Charlton xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Crawley Town vs Charlton kick off?
Crawley Town vs Charlton kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 11 March 2025 at Broadfield Stadium.
What was the final score in Crawley Town vs Charlton?
Crawley Town 0 - 1 Charlton.
Where is Crawley Town vs Charlton being played?
The match is being played at Broadfield Stadium.
What competition is Crawley Town vs Charlton part of?
Crawley Town vs Charlton is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Crawley Town vs Charlton?
Our statistical model gives Crawley Town a 25% chance of winning, Charlton a 48% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Charlton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Crawley Town vs Charlton?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Crawley Town and Charlton will score (BTTS).
Will Crawley Town vs Charlton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Crawley Town and Charlton?
Record (1 meetings): Crawley Town 1W | Draws 0 | Charlton 0W.
What form are Crawley Town and Charlton in?
Crawley Town (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-L-L-D. Charlton (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.50 | L5 L-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Crawley Town's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Charlton's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.02. The same calculation in reverse, Charlton's attack versus Crawley Town's defence, projects 1.53 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/81 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.4%), 0-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Charlton Win
25%
4.06
27%
3.68
48%
2.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.9%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Crawley Town xG
Total xG
2.55
1.53
Charlton xG
4.06
25%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
2.07
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
22%
4.60
36%
2.78
Win to Nil
5%
18.67
17%
5.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 11.9 | 9.1 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 12.2 | 9.3 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 6.2 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Crawley Town vs Charlton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Crawley Town and Charlton expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Crawley Town and 1.53 for Charlton, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Crawley Town vs Charlton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Crawley Town's recent record stands at 29W 15D 37L from 81 games, a 1.26 PPG return, with D-L-L-L-D in the last five.
Charlton, meanwhile, have gone 28W 29D 24L across 81 games — 1.40 PPG, with L-W-W-W-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Crawley Town on 1.26 PPG, Charlton on 1.40. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Crawley Town have managed 15W 9D 16L from 40 games — 1.35 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Charlton's away record stands at 9W 16D 15L across 40 trips, a 1.08 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Crawley Town are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Charlton are on 1.36 scored and 1.19 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Charlton in 60%.
Last 81 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crawley Town
Current Season
Charlton
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Crawley Town and Charlton in coming into this match?
Crawley Town have gone 29W 15D 37L in their last 81 games (1.26 PPG), while Charlton have gone 28W 29D 24L in their last 81 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Crawley Town at home or Charlton away?
Crawley Town's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Crawley Town at home: 1.35 PPG; Charlton away: 1.08 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Crawley Town and Charlton runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Crawley Town
0
Draws
1
Charlton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Crawley Town and Charlton?
From 2 meetings on record, Crawley Town have won 1, Charlton have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Crawley Town and Charlton last play each other?
They last met on 11 March 2025, when Crawley Town 0-1 Charlton.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Crawley Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Charlton see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Crawley Town 60%, Charlton 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Crawley Town) and 42% (Charlton).
On the defensive side: Charlton in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crawley Town home games / Charlton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Crawley Town play Charlton?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Crawley Town's games and 60% of Charlton's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Crawley Town vs Charlton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Crawley Town's recent games and 42% of Charlton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Crawley Town and Charlton tend to score early?
Crawley Town have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Charlton in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Charlton edge out Crawley Town 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Charlton beat Crawley Town 0-1 at Broadfield Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Crawley Town 1.02 xG and Charlton 1.53 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Crawley Town fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crawley Town attack 0.89 / defence 1.24 against Charlton attack 1.10 / defence 0.93, drawn from 35/81 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Crawley Town 25% | Draw 27% | Charlton 48%, with Charlton to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crawley Town 56%, Charlton 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Crawley Town's trading profile (81 games, 40 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Charlton's trading profile (81 games, 40 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Crawley Town 1.26 PPG, Charlton 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Charlton win broke the near-deadlock. Crawley Town (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.48 scoring average — below par going forward. Charlton (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.35 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.