Charlton 1-4 Bolton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bolton at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Charlton vs Bolton encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League One encounter, Regular Season - 10 sees Bolton travel to The Valley to take on Charlton. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 28 September 2021, 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Charlton stand at 1W 3D 5L from 9 League One matches — 0.67 PPG. Last five: W L L D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.44 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 9 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Charlton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Charlton's home record at The Valley: 1W 2D 2L from 5 League One appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 2 home clean sheets from 5 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Bolton — All Games: 3W 3D 3L from 9 League One fixtures this season — 1.33 PPG. Last five: L D W L L. They are scoring at 1.56 per game and conceding 1.44. 2 clean sheets from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Bolton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Bolton have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Bolton — 0.66 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.33 vs 0.67). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
In-Play Data
Charlton trading profile (9 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Bolton trading profile (9 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charlton 67% versus Bolton 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charlton 56% | Bolton 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charlton 1.14 xG and Bolton 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charlton attack 0.927 / defence 1.245 | Bolton attack 1.041 / defence 1.200. League average goals — home 1.027 / away 1.212. Data: 9 Charlton games / 9 Bolton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Charlton 28% | Draw 25% | Bolton 47%. Fair-value odds: Charlton 3.57 | Draw 4.00 | Bolton 2.13. Bolton hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bolton at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bolton offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.71 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Charlton 40% | Bolton 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charlton vs Bolton | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: The Valley • Kick-off: Tuesday 28 Sep 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charlton 28% | Draw 25% | Bolton 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 54% | xG Charlton 1.14 / Bolton 1.57 • Poisson strength factors: Charlton attack 0.927 / def 1.245 | Bolton attack 1.041 / def 1.200 | league avg home 1.027 / away 1.212 • Poisson stance: Bolton (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Charlton xG
Expected Goals
1.57
Bolton xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Charlton vs Bolton kick off?
Charlton vs Bolton kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 28 September 2021 at The Valley.
What was the final score in Charlton vs Bolton?
Charlton 1 - 4 Bolton.
Where is Charlton vs Bolton being played?
The match is being played at The Valley.
What competition is Charlton vs Bolton part of?
Charlton vs Bolton is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Charlton vs Bolton?
Our statistical model gives Charlton a 28% chance of winning, Bolton a 47% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Bolton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charlton vs Bolton?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Charlton and Bolton will score (BTTS).
Will Charlton vs Bolton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Charlton and Bolton?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Charlton and Bolton in?
Charlton (all comps): 1W-3D-5L in 9 | 0.67 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.44 | L5 W-L-L-D-D. Bolton (all comps): 3W-3D-3L in 9 | 1.33 PPG | GF 1.56 / GA 1.44 | L5 L-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Charlton's attack rating (0.93) and Bolton's defence rating (1.20), the model arrives at 1.14 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Bolton's attack versus Charlton's defence, projects 1.57 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-1 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bolton Win
28%
3.61
25%
3.99
47%
2.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Charlton xG
Total xG
2.71
1.57
Bolton xG
3.61
28%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
2.12
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
21%
4.82
32%
3.13
Win to Nil
6%
17.40
15%
6.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 10.4 | 8.2 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.9 | 9.4 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 6.8 | 5.3 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Charlton vs Bolton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Charlton and Bolton expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Charlton and 1.57 for Bolton, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Charlton vs Bolton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Charlton's recent record stands at 1W 3D 5L from 9 games, a 0.67 PPG return, with W-L-L-D-D in the last five. The sample for Charlton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bolton, meanwhile, have gone 3W 3D 3L across 9 games — 1.33 PPG, with L-D-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Bolton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Bolton by 0.66 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Charlton heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Charlton have managed 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bolton's away record stands at 2W 1D 2L across 5 trips, a 1.40 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Charlton are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Bolton are on 1.56 scored and 1.44 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Charlton have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 9 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charlton
Blended
Bolton
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Charlton and Bolton in coming into this match?
Charlton have gone 1W 3D 5L in their last 9 games (0.67 PPG), while Bolton have gone 3W 3D 3L in their last 9 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charlton at home or Bolton away?
Bolton's away record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charlton at home: 1.00 PPG; Bolton away: 1.40 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Charlton and Bolton runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Charlton have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Sep 2021, when Bolton won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Charlton's record when hosting Bolton specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Charlton
1
Draws
5
Bolton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Charlton and Bolton?
From 8 meetings on record, Charlton have won 2, Bolton have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Charlton and Bolton last play each other?
They last met on 21 January 2025, when Bolton 1-2 Charlton.
Who has won more matches between Charlton and Bolton?
Bolton have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Charlton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Bolton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charlton 40%, Bolton 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Charlton) and 40% (Bolton).
On the defensive side: Charlton keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Charlton have failed to score in 40% of games; Bolton in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charlton home games / Bolton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Charlton play Bolton?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Charlton's recent matches and 40% of Bolton's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Charlton vs Bolton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Charlton's recent games and 40% of Bolton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Charlton and Bolton tend to score early?
Charlton have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Bolton in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Bolton run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Charlton.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bolton beat Charlton 1-4 at The Valley, Regular Season - 10, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charlton 1.14 xG and Bolton 1.57 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Bolton outscored their 1.57 projection by 2.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charlton attack 0.93 / defence 1.25 against Bolton attack 1.04 / defence 1.20, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charlton 28% | Draw 25% | Bolton 47%, with Bolton to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charlton 56%, Bolton 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charlton's trading profile (9 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Bolton's trading profile (9 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Bolton arrived the stronger side — 1.33 PPG against 0.67. That form edge translated into the three points. Charlton (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bolton (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.80 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.