Charlton 2-3 Accrington ST – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Charlton at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Charlton vs Accrington ST fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League One encounter, Regular Season - 14 sees Accrington ST travel to The Valley to take on Charlton. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 19 October 2021, 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Charlton stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 League One matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D D L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Charlton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Charlton have posted 1W 2D 3L at The Valley — 0.83 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game.
Accrington ST — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 League One fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Accrington ST, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Accrington ST's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 5L across 7 road games this term (0.57 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.14 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.57 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Accrington ST are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.30 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Profile
Charlton in-play tendencies (12 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Accrington ST in-play tendencies (12 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Charlton 75% and Accrington ST 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charlton 67% | Accrington ST 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charlton 1.48 xG and Accrington ST 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charlton attack 0.834 / defence 1.407 | Accrington ST attack 0.777 / defence 1.496. League average goals — home 1.185 / away 1.292. Accrington ST bring a strong defensive rating of 1.496 — this is suppressing Charlton's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 12 Charlton games / 12 Accrington ST games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Charlton 39% | Draw 25% | Accrington ST 36%. Fair-value odds: Charlton 2.56 | Draw 4.00 | Accrington ST 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Charlton as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Accrington ST (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Charlton offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.89 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Charlton 50% | Accrington ST 57%.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charlton vs Accrington ST | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: The Valley • Kick-off: Tuesday 19 Oct 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charlton 39% | Draw 25% | Accrington ST 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Charlton 1.48 / Accrington ST 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Charlton attack 0.834 / def 1.407 | Accrington ST attack 0.777 / def 1.496 | league avg home 1.185 / away 1.292 • Poisson stance: Charlton (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Charlton xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Accrington ST xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Charlton vs Accrington ST kick off?
Charlton vs Accrington ST kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 19 October 2021 at The Valley.
What was the final score in Charlton vs Accrington ST?
Charlton 2 - 3 Accrington ST.
Where is Charlton vs Accrington ST being played?
The match is being played at The Valley.
What competition is Charlton vs Accrington ST part of?
Charlton vs Accrington ST is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Charlton vs Accrington ST?
Our statistical model gives Charlton a 39% chance of winning, Accrington ST a 36% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Charlton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charlton vs Accrington ST?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Charlton and Accrington ST will score (BTTS).
Will Charlton vs Accrington ST have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Charlton and Accrington ST?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Charlton and Accrington ST in?
Charlton (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-L-W-L. Accrington ST (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Charlton's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Accrington ST's defensive record (1.50x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.48. The same calculation in reverse, Accrington ST's attack versus Charlton's defence, projects 1.41 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Charlton Win
39%
2.56
25%
4.03
36%
2.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Charlton xG
Total xG
2.89
1.41
Accrington ST xG
2.56
39%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
2.77
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
24%
4.10
23%
4.38
Win to Nil
10%
10.51
8%
12.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 7.9 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 11.6 | 8.2 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.6 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.2 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Charlton vs Accrington ST?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Charlton and Accrington ST expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Charlton and 1.41 for Accrington ST, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Charlton vs Accrington ST?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 12 outings, Charlton have picked up 0.75 PPG on a 2W 3D 7L record — D-D-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Charlton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Accrington ST's form line: 5W 1D 6L from 12 games, 1.33 PPG, last five L-D-L-W-L. The sample for Accrington ST is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Accrington ST are the form team by 0.58 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Charlton.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Charlton have posted 0.83 PPG from 6 outings (1W 2D 3L).
On the road, Accrington ST have gone 1W 1D 4L from 6 away games — 0.67 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.33 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Accrington ST's season.
The Goals Picture
Charlton are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Accrington ST are on 1.17 scored and 1.75 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Charlton have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games.
Last 12 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charlton
Blended
Accrington ST
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Charlton and Accrington ST in coming into this match?
Charlton have gone 2W 3D 7L in their last 12 games (0.75 PPG), while Accrington ST have gone 5W 1D 6L in their last 12 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charlton at home or Accrington ST away?
Charlton's home record (0.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charlton at home: 0.83 PPG; Accrington ST away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Charlton and Accrington ST runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Charlton's record when hosting Accrington ST specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Charlton
2
Draws
2
Accrington ST
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Charlton and Accrington ST?
From 4 meetings on record, Charlton have won 0, Accrington ST have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Charlton and Accrington ST last play each other?
They last met on 11 March 2023, when Charlton 1-1 Accrington ST.
Who has won more matches between Charlton and Accrington ST?
Accrington ST have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Charlton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Accrington ST are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charlton 50%, Accrington ST 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Charlton) and 50% (Accrington ST).
On the defensive side: Charlton keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Charlton have failed to score in 33% of games; Accrington ST in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charlton home games / Accrington ST away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Charlton play Accrington ST?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Charlton's recent matches and 50% of Accrington ST's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Charlton vs Accrington ST usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Charlton's recent games and 50% of Accrington ST's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Charlton and Accrington ST tend to score early?
Charlton have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Accrington ST in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Accrington ST defy the odds to beat Charlton 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Accrington ST beat Charlton 2-3 at The Valley, Regular Season - 14, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charlton 1.48 xG and Accrington ST 1.41 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Accrington ST outscored their 1.41 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charlton attack 0.83 / defence 1.41 against Accrington ST attack 0.78 / defence 1.50, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charlton 39% | Draw 25% | Accrington ST 36%, with Charlton to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Accrington ST win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charlton 67%, Accrington ST 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charlton's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Accrington ST's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Accrington ST arrived the stronger side — 1.33 PPG against 0.75. That form edge translated into the three points. Charlton (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Accrington ST (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.