Carlisle 1-1 Charlton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Charlton at 46% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Carlisle vs Charlton encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Charlton make the trip to Brunton Park to face Carlisle in League One (matchday 19). The match kicks off on Saturday 25 November 2023 at 15:00 UK time.
Form
Carlisle (all games): 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market.
Carlisle's form when playing at home: 2W 4D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Charlton have collected 1.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: W L L W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Charlton away from home: 2W 4D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
On a straight form reading, Charlton are the stronger side — 0.80 PPG clear of the hosts (1.60 vs 0.80). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading
Carlisle half-time and goal-timing data (last 62 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 41%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Charlton half-time and goal-timing data (last 62 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Carlisle 44% versus Charlton 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Carlisle 36% | Charlton 55%). Note also that Charlton surrender HT leads in 29% of cases while Carlisle recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 41% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Carlisle 1.00 xG and Charlton 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Carlisle attack 0.662 / defence 1.108 | Charlton attack 1.126 / defence 1.124. League average goals — home 1.351 / away 1.127. Carlisle's attack rating of 0.662 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.00. Data: built from Carlisle's last 17 games and Charlton's last 62.
Result probabilities: Carlisle 27% | Draw 27% | Charlton 46%. Fair-value odds: Carlisle 3.72 | Draw 3.72 | Charlton 2.16. Charlton hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Charlton at 46% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Charlton if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.41 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 52%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Carlisle 50% (last 10 home games) | Charlton 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Carlisle vs Charlton | Competition: League One, matchday 19 | Venue: Brunton Park • Kick-off: Saturday 25 November 2023 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Carlisle 27% | Draw 27% | Charlton 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Carlisle 1.00 / Charlton 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Carlisle attack 0.662 / def 1.108 | Charlton attack 1.126 / def 1.124 | league avg home 1.351 / away 1.127 • Poisson stance: Charlton (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Carlisle xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Charlton xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Carlisle vs Charlton FAQs
What time does Carlisle vs Charlton kick off?
Carlisle vs Charlton kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 25 November 2023 at Brunton Park.
What was the final score in Carlisle vs Charlton?
Carlisle 1 - 1 Charlton.
Where is Carlisle vs Charlton being played?
The match is being played at Brunton Park.
What competition is Carlisle vs Charlton part of?
Carlisle vs Charlton is a League One fixture (matchday 19) (England).
Who is favourite to win Carlisle vs Charlton?
Our statistical model gives Carlisle a 27% chance of winning, Charlton a 46% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Charlton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Carlisle vs Charlton?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Carlisle and Charlton will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Carlisle vs Charlton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Carlisle's attack rating (0.66) and Charlton's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 1.00 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Charlton's attack (1.13x) against Carlisle's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.41.
These ratings are built from Carlisle's last 17 games and Charlton's last 62 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.0%), 0-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Charlton Win
27%
3.72
27%
3.72
46%
2.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.6%
Away win
0 – 0
9.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Carlisle xG
Total xG
2.41
1.41
Charlton xG
3.72
27%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
2.16
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
25%
4.08
37%
2.73
Win to Nil
7%
15.16
17%
5.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 12.6 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.7 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 6.4 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Carlisle vs Charlton Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Carlisle vs Charlton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Carlisle and Charlton expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Carlisle and 1.41 for Charlton, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Carlisle vs Charlton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 62 outings, Carlisle have picked up 1.44 PPG on a 23W 20D 19L record — L-L-W-L-L across the most recent five.
Charlton's form line: 22W 18D 22L from 62 games, 1.35 PPG, last five W-L-L-W-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.44 PPG for Carlisle against 1.35 for Charlton. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Carlisle have posted 1.53 PPG from their last 30 home games (12W 10D 8L).
On the road, Charlton have gone 8W 10D 12L from their last 30 away games — 1.13 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Carlisle come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Carlisle are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Charlton are on 1.56 scored and 1.44 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Charlton in 63%.
Last 62 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Carlisle
Blended
Charlton
Blended
Carlisle (Home) vs Charlton (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Carlisle
Blended
Charlton
Blended
❓ Carlisle vs Charlton Form FAQs
What form are Carlisle and Charlton in coming into this match?
Carlisle have gone 23W 20D 19L in their last 62 games (1.44 PPG), while Charlton have gone 22W 18D 22L in their last 62 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Carlisle at home or Charlton away?
Carlisle's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Carlisle at home: 1.53 PPG; Charlton away: 1.13 PPG.
Have Carlisle or Charlton been keeping clean sheets recently?
Carlisle have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Charlton in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 2 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to November 2023 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in League One. The most recent in our data was on 9 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Carlisle
1
Draws
1
Charlton
Recent Meetings
❓ Carlisle vs Charlton H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Carlisle and Charlton?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Carlisle have won 0, Charlton have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Carlisle and Charlton last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 March 2024: Charlton 3-2 Carlisle.
Who has won more matches between Carlisle and Charlton?
Charlton have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Carlisle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Charlton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Carlisle 43%, Charlton 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Carlisle) and 50% (Charlton).
On the defensive side: Carlisle keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Carlisle have failed to score in 33% of games; Charlton in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Carlisle home games / Charlton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Carlisle vs Charlton Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Carlisle and Charlton matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Carlisle's recent matches and 57% of Charlton's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Carlisle and Charlton matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Carlisle's recent games and 50% of Charlton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Carlisle and Charlton matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of Carlisle's recent matches and 70% of Charlton's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Carlisle and Charlton share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Brunton Park, Regular Season - 19, as Carlisle and Charlton drew 1-1 in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Carlisle 1.00 xG and Charlton 1.41 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Carlisle attack 0.66 / defence 1.11 against Charlton attack 1.13 / defence 1.12, drawn from 17/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Carlisle 27% | Draw 27% | Charlton 46%, with Charlton to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Carlisle 36%, Charlton 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Carlisle's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Charlton's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Carlisle 1.44 PPG, Charlton 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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