Carlisle 2-1 Burton Albion – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Burton Albion at 42% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Carlisle vs Burton Albion encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Carlisle host Burton Albion at Brunton Park in League One (matchday 15). Kick-off is Tuesday 24 October 2023 at 20:45 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Carlisle have gone 2W 3D 5L — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L D W L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Carlisle's form when playing at home: 2W 4D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Burton Albion stand at 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Burton Albion away from home: 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Form points away from home here. Burton Albion's 1.80 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Carlisle's 0.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Trading Patterns
Carlisle in-play and half-time data (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Burton Albion in-play and half-time data (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Carlisle 45% versus Burton Albion 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Carlisle 37% | Burton Albion 50%). Note also that Burton Albion surrender HT leads in 36% of cases while Carlisle recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 38% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Carlisle 0.79 xG and Burton Albion 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Carlisle attack 0.674 / defence 1.119 | Burton Albion attack 0.888 / defence 0.936. League average goals — home 1.245 / away 1.089. Carlisle's attack rating of 0.674 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.79. Data: built from Carlisle's last 14 games and Burton Albion's last 60.
Result probabilities: Carlisle 26% | Draw 32% | Burton Albion 42%. Fair-value odds: Carlisle 3.82 | Draw 3.16 | Burton Albion 2.37. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS Yes probability 36% | Total xG 1.87. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.87 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 64% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Burton Albion are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Burton Albion offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.87 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 71% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Carlisle's last 10 home games and Burton Albion's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 64%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Carlisle 60% (last 10 home games) | Burton Albion 20% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Carlisle vs Burton Albion | Competition: League One, matchday 15 | Venue: Brunton Park • Kick-off: Tuesday 24 October 2023 at 20:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Carlisle 26% | Draw 32% | Burton Albion 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% (Under 71%) | BTTS Yes 36% (No 64%) | xG Carlisle 0.79 / Burton Albion 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Carlisle attack 0.674 / def 1.119 | Burton Albion attack 0.888 / def 0.936 | league avg home 1.245 / away 1.089 • Poisson stance: Burton Albion (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.79
Carlisle xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Burton Albion xG
36%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Carlisle vs Burton Albion FAQs
What time does Carlisle vs Burton Albion kick off?
Carlisle vs Burton Albion kicked off at 20:45 UK time on Tuesday 24 October 2023 at Brunton Park.
What was the final score in Carlisle vs Burton Albion?
Carlisle 2 - 1 Burton Albion.
Where is Carlisle vs Burton Albion being played?
The match is being played at Brunton Park.
What competition is Carlisle vs Burton Albion part of?
Carlisle vs Burton Albion is a League One fixture (matchday 15) (England).
Who is favourite to win Carlisle vs Burton Albion?
Our statistical model gives Carlisle a 26% chance of winning, Burton Albion a 42% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Burton Albion the favourite.
Will both teams score in Carlisle vs Burton Albion?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Carlisle and Burton Albion will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (64%).
Will Carlisle vs Burton Albion have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (71%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Carlisle's attack rating (0.67) and Burton Albion's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 0.79 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Burton Albion's attack versus Carlisle's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Carlisle's last 14 games and Burton Albion's last 60 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.2%. Close behind: 0-1 (15.0%), 1-1 (14.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Burton Albion Win
26%
3.82
32%
3.16
42%
2.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.7%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.4%
Draw
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.79
Carlisle xG
Total xG
1.87
1.08
Burton Albion xG
3.82
26%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
2.37
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.78
64%
BTTS No
1.56
Clean Sheet
34%
2.95
46%
2.19
Win to Nil
9%
11.28
19%
5.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.4 | 16.7 | 9.1 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 13.1 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 5.2 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Carlisle vs Burton Albion Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Carlisle vs Burton Albion?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.2%.
How many goals are Carlisle and Burton Albion expected to score?
The model projects 0.79 expected goals for Carlisle and 1.08 for Burton Albion, a combined total of 1.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Carlisle vs Burton Albion?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Carlisle's recent record stands at 22W 20D 18L from 60 games, a 1.43 PPG return, with L-D-W-L-L in the last five.
Burton Albion, meanwhile, have gone 20W 15D 25L across 60 games — 1.25 PPG, with D-W-W-W-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Carlisle on 1.43 PPG, Burton Albion on 1.25. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Carlisle have managed 12W 11D 7L from their last 30 home games — 1.57 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Burton Albion's away record stands at 8W 6D 16L across their last 30 away games, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Carlisle come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Carlisle are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Burton Albion are on 1.20 scored and 1.60 conceded.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Carlisle
Blended
Burton Albion
Blended
Carlisle (Home) vs Burton Albion (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Carlisle
Blended
Burton Albion
Blended
❓ Carlisle vs Burton Albion Form FAQs
What form are Carlisle and Burton Albion in coming into this match?
Carlisle have gone 22W 20D 18L in their last 60 games (1.43 PPG), while Burton Albion have gone 20W 15D 25L in their last 60 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Carlisle at home or Burton Albion away?
Carlisle's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Carlisle at home: 1.57 PPG; Burton Albion away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Carlisle or Burton Albion been keeping clean sheets recently?
Carlisle have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Burton Albion in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 2 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2023. All of them came in League One. The most recent in our data was on 27 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Carlisle
0
Draws
0
Burton Albion
Recent Meetings
❓ Carlisle vs Burton Albion H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Carlisle and Burton Albion?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Carlisle have won 2, Burton Albion have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Carlisle and Burton Albion last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 27 February 2024: Burton Albion 0-1 Carlisle.
Who has won more matches between Carlisle and Burton Albion?
Carlisle have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Carlisle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Burton Albion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Carlisle 43%, Burton Albion 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Carlisle) and 53% (Burton Albion).
On the defensive side: Carlisle keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Carlisle have failed to score in 30% of games; Burton Albion in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Carlisle home games / Burton Albion away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Carlisle vs Burton Albion Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Carlisle and Burton Albion matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Carlisle's recent matches and 50% of Burton Albion's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Carlisle and Burton Albion matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Carlisle's recent games and 53% of Burton Albion's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Carlisle and Burton Albion matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Carlisle's recent matches and 60% of Burton Albion's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Carlisle defy the odds to beat Burton Albion 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Carlisle beat Burton Albion 2-1 at Brunton Park, Regular Season - 15, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Carlisle 0.79 xG and Burton Albion 1.08 xG, a combined 1.87. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Carlisle beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Carlisle attack 0.67 / defence 1.12 against Burton Albion attack 0.89 / defence 0.94, drawn from 14/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Carlisle 26% | Draw 32% | Burton Albion 42%, with Burton Albion to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Carlisle win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Carlisle 37%, Burton Albion 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Carlisle's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Burton Albion's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Carlisle 1.43 PPG, Burton Albion 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Carlisle win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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