Cardiff 1-1 Stockport County – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cardiff at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cardiff vs Stockport County fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League One encounter, Regular Season - 28 sees Stockport County travel to Cardiff City Stadium to take on Cardiff. The game is scheduled for Saturday 24 January 2026, 12:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cardiff stand at 7W 2D 1L from 10 League One matches — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W D W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Cardiff, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cardiff's home record at Cardiff City Stadium: 8W 0D 2L from 10 League One appearances (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all League One games this season, Stockport County have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D L W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Stockport County, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stockport County's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in League One this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Cardiff are in the better shape of the two on current League One data — 0.60 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 1.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Cardiff have won 0, Stockport County 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Sep 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Cardiff in-play tendencies (72 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (home games).
Stockport County in-play tendencies (72 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cardiff 56% versus Stockport County 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cardiff 47% | Stockport County 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cardiff 1.50 xG and Stockport County 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cardiff attack 1.300 / defence 1.091 | Stockport County attack 1.015 / defence 0.839. League average goals — home 1.378 / away 1.097. Cardiff carry an above-average attack strength of 1.300 — their λ of 1.50 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 26 Cardiff games / 72 Stockport County games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cardiff 44% | Draw 25% | Stockport County 31%. Fair-value odds: Cardiff 2.27 | Draw 4.00 | Stockport County 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cardiff are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cardiff offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.72 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates are neutral: Cardiff 60% | Stockport County 40%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cardiff vs Stockport County | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Cardiff City Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Jan 2026, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cardiff 44% | Draw 25% | Stockport County 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Cardiff 1.50 / Stockport County 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Cardiff attack 1.300 / def 1.091 | Stockport County attack 1.015 / def 0.839 | league avg home 1.378 / away 1.097 • Poisson stance: Cardiff (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Cardiff xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Stockport County xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cardiff vs Stockport County kick off?
Cardiff vs Stockport County kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 24 January 2026 at Cardiff City Stadium.
What was the final score in Cardiff vs Stockport County?
Cardiff 1 - 1 Stockport County.
Where is Cardiff vs Stockport County being played?
The match is being played at Cardiff City Stadium.
What competition is Cardiff vs Stockport County part of?
Cardiff vs Stockport County is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Cardiff vs Stockport County?
Our statistical model gives Cardiff a 44% chance of winning, Stockport County a 31% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Cardiff the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cardiff vs Stockport County?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Cardiff and Stockport County will score (BTTS).
Will Cardiff vs Stockport County have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cardiff and Stockport County?
Record (1 meetings): Cardiff 0W | Draws 1 | Stockport County 0W.
What form are Cardiff and Stockport County in?
Cardiff (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-D-W. Stockport County (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Cardiff's attacking strength (1.30x league average) is weighed against Stockport County's defensive record (0.84x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.50. The same calculation in reverse, Stockport County's attack versus Cardiff's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/72 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cardiff Win
44%
2.28
25%
3.93
31%
3.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Cardiff xG
Total xG
2.72
1.22
Stockport County xG
2.28
44%
Home win
3.93
25%
Draw
3.26
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
30%
3.37
22%
4.49
Win to Nil
13%
7.68
7%
14.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 8.0 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.1 | 7.3 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.1 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.5 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cardiff vs Stockport County?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Cardiff and Stockport County expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Cardiff and 1.22 for Stockport County, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Cardiff vs Stockport County?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cardiff's recent record stands at 26W 21D 25L from 72 games, a 1.38 PPG return, with W-D-W-D-W in the last five. The sample for Cardiff is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Stockport County, meanwhile, have gone 36W 20D 16L across 72 games — 1.78 PPG, with W-D-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Stockport County is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Stockport County by 0.40 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Cardiff heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Cardiff have managed 18W 6D 11L from 35 games — 1.71 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Stockport County's away record stands at 14W 12D 9L across 35 trips, a 1.54 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Cardiff are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Stockport County are on 1.49 scored and 1.07 conceded.
Last 72 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cardiff
Blended
Stockport County
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cardiff and Stockport County in coming into this match?
Cardiff have gone 26W 21D 25L in their last 72 games (1.38 PPG), while Stockport County have gone 36W 20D 16L in their last 72 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cardiff at home or Stockport County away?
Cardiff's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cardiff at home: 1.71 PPG; Stockport County away: 1.54 PPG.
Have Cardiff or Stockport County been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cardiff have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Stockport County in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Cardiff
2
Draws
0
Stockport County
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cardiff and Stockport County?
From 2 meetings on record, Cardiff have won 0, Stockport County have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cardiff and Stockport County last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when Cardiff 1-1 Stockport County.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cardiff see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Stockport County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cardiff 49%, Stockport County 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 49% (Cardiff) and 37% (Stockport County).
On the defensive side: Cardiff keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cardiff home games / Stockport County away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cardiff play Stockport County?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 49% of Cardiff's recent matches and 54% of Stockport County's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cardiff vs Stockport County usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 49% of Cardiff's recent games and 37% of Stockport County's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cardiff and Stockport County tend to score early?
Cardiff have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Stockport County in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cardiff and Stockport County share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cardiff and Stockport County finished level at 1-1 at Cardiff City Stadium, Regular Season - 28, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cardiff 1.50 xG and Stockport County 1.22 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cardiff attack 1.30 / defence 1.09 against Stockport County attack 1.01 / defence 0.84, drawn from 26/72 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cardiff 44% | Draw 25% | Stockport County 31%, with Cardiff to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cardiff 47%, Stockport County 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cardiff's trading profile (72 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Stockport County's trading profile (72 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Stockport County arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.38. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.