Cardiff 1-0 Exeter City – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Cardiff at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cardiff vs Exeter City encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Cardiff host Exeter City at Cardiff City Stadium in League One, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 26 December 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League One games this season, Cardiff have gone 7W 0D 3L from 10 outings — a 2.10 PPG return. Last five: W W W W L. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Cardiff, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cardiff's form when playing at home: 8W 0D 2L across 10 games at Cardiff City Stadium this term (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Exeter City stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 League One matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Exeter City, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Exeter City have gone 2W 0D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On current form, Cardiff have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (2.10 vs 1.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Trading Patterns
Cardiff in-play and half-time data (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Exeter City in-play and half-time data (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cardiff 54% versus Exeter City 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cardiff 48% | Exeter City 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cardiff 1.89 xG and Exeter City 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cardiff attack 1.487 / defence 1.275 | Exeter City attack 0.738 / defence 0.981. League average goals — home 1.292 / away 1.157. Cardiff carry an above-average attack strength of 1.487 — their λ of 1.89 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 20 Cardiff games / 66 Exeter City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cardiff 56% | Draw 22% | Exeter City 22%. Fair-value odds: Cardiff 1.79 | Draw 4.55 | Exeter City 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Cardiff (56%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cardiff are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.97 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Cardiff 60% | Exeter City 30%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cardiff vs Exeter City | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Cardiff City Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 26 Dec 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cardiff 56% | Draw 22% | Exeter City 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 56% | xG Cardiff 1.89 / Exeter City 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Cardiff attack 1.487 / def 1.275 | Exeter City attack 0.738 / def 0.981 | league avg home 1.292 / away 1.157 • Poisson stance: Cardiff (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.89
Cardiff xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Exeter City xG
56%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cardiff vs Exeter City kick off?
Cardiff vs Exeter City kicked off at 15:00 on Friday 26 December 2025 at Cardiff City Stadium.
What was the final score in Cardiff vs Exeter City?
Cardiff 1 - 0 Exeter City.
Where is Cardiff vs Exeter City being played?
The match is being played at Cardiff City Stadium.
What competition is Cardiff vs Exeter City part of?
Cardiff vs Exeter City is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Cardiff vs Exeter City?
Our statistical model gives Cardiff a 56% chance of winning, Exeter City a 22% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Cardiff the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cardiff vs Exeter City?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Cardiff and Exeter City will score (BTTS).
Will Cardiff vs Exeter City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cardiff and Exeter City?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cardiff and Exeter City in?
Cardiff (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. Exeter City (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Cardiff's attack rating (1.49) and Exeter City's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.89 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Exeter City's attack versus Cardiff's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 20/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cardiff Win
56%
1.79
22%
4.47
22%
4.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.89
Cardiff xG
Total xG
2.97
1.09
Exeter City xG
1.79
56%
Home win
4.47
22%
Draw
4.61
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
34%
2.97
15%
6.59
Win to Nil
19%
5.31
3%
30.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 5.6 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 10.5 | 5.7 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.9 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 6.2 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cardiff vs Exeter City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Cardiff and Exeter City expected to score?
The model projects 1.89 expected goals for Cardiff and 1.09 for Exeter City, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Cardiff vs Exeter City?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Cardiff come into this having played 66 games, going 22W 19D 25L for 1.29 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-L. The sample for Cardiff is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Exeter City sit at 1.20 PPG from 66 outings (22W 13D 31L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Exeter City is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cardiff on 1.29 PPG, Exeter City on 1.20. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Cardiff's home form reads 15W 6D 12L across 33 games on their own ground, a 1.55 PPG return.
Away from home, Exeter City have taken 0.97 points per game from 33 outings (9W 5D 19L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cardiff come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Cardiff are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Exeter City are on 1.06 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Last 66 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cardiff
Blended
Exeter City
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cardiff and Exeter City in coming into this match?
Cardiff have gone 22W 19D 25L in their last 66 games (1.29 PPG), while Exeter City have gone 22W 13D 31L in their last 66 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cardiff at home or Exeter City away?
Cardiff's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cardiff at home: 1.55 PPG; Exeter City away: 0.97 PPG.
Have Cardiff or Exeter City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cardiff have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Exeter City in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cardiff and Exeter City runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Cardiff
0
Draws
0
Exeter City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cardiff and Exeter City?
From 2 meetings on record, Cardiff have won 2, Exeter City have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Cardiff and Exeter City last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Exeter City 0-4 Cardiff.
Who has won more matches between Cardiff and Exeter City?
Cardiff have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cardiff see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Exeter City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cardiff 48%, Exeter City 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Cardiff) and 42% (Exeter City).
On the defensive side: Cardiff have failed to score in 27% of games; Exeter City in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cardiff home games / Exeter City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cardiff play Exeter City?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Cardiff's recent matches and 39% of Exeter City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cardiff vs Exeter City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Cardiff's recent games and 42% of Exeter City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cardiff and Exeter City tend to score early?
Cardiff have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Exeter City in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Cardiff edge out Exeter City 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cardiff beat Exeter City 1-0 at Cardiff City Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cardiff 1.89 xG and Exeter City 1.09 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Cardiff fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Exeter City landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cardiff attack 1.49 / defence 1.27 against Exeter City attack 0.74 / defence 0.98, drawn from 20/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cardiff 56% | Draw 22% | Exeter City 22%, with Cardiff to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cardiff 48%, Exeter City 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cardiff's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Exeter City's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cardiff 1.29 PPG, Exeter City 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cardiff win broke the near-deadlock. Cardiff (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.