Cambridge United 0-2 Charlton – Result & Analysis

Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 35% as Cambridge United take on Charlton.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a League One clash, Regular Season - 44 as Cambridge United welcome Charlton to Abbey Stadium. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 19 April 2022 at 19:45 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all League One games this season, Cambridge United have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.

Cambridge United's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Abbey Stadium this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Abbey Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Charlton stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 League One matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

On the road, Charlton have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Cambridge United at 1.30 PPG versus Charlton's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Cambridge United have won 0, Charlton 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Dec 2021, ended 0–2 with Charlton winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Cambridge United in-play and half-time data (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).

Charlton in-play and half-time data (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cambridge United 51% versus Charlton 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cambridge United 49% | Charlton 46%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Cambridge United 1.03 xG and Charlton 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cambridge United attack 0.862 / defence 1.146 | Charlton attack 0.751 / defence 1.068. League average goals — home 1.121 / away 1.173. Data: 43 Cambridge United games / 43 Charlton games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Cambridge United 33% | Draw 35% | Charlton 32%. Fair-value odds: Cambridge United 3.03 | Draw 2.86 | Charlton 3.12. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 33% and away win at 32% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.

Poisson projects 2.04 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates are neutral: Cambridge United 30% | Charlton 70%.

The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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