Cambridge United 0-0 Bolton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bolton at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cambridge United vs Bolton encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Bolton make the trip to Abbey Stadium to face Cambridge United in League One, Regular Season - 18. The match kicks off on Saturday 12 November 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Cambridge United's overall League One record this term: 2W 0D 8L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. This season is still relatively young for Cambridge United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cambridge United at Abbey Stadium this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Cambridge United are significantly better at Abbey Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Bolton (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 League One outings this term — 1.90 points per game. Last five: L D W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Bolton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Bolton have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Bolton are 1.30 PPG clear of Cambridge United in recent League One fixtures (1.90 vs 0.60). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Cambridge United lead 1W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 1.5 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 1 Feb 2022, ended 0–2 with Bolton winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Cambridge United half-time and goal-timing data (62 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Bolton half-time and goal-timing data (62 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cambridge United 50% versus Bolton 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cambridge United 52% | Bolton 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cambridge United 1.04 xG and Bolton 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cambridge United attack 0.846 / defence 1.175 | Bolton attack 0.862 / defence 0.940. League average goals — home 1.304 / away 1.243. Data: 63 Cambridge United games / 62 Bolton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cambridge United 30% | Draw 28% | Bolton 41%. Fair-value odds: Cambridge United 3.33 | Draw 3.57 | Bolton 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bolton at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bolton if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.30 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates corroborate: Cambridge United 30% | Bolton 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cambridge United vs Bolton | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Abbey Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Nov 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cambridge United 30% | Draw 28% | Bolton 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Cambridge United 1.04 / Bolton 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Cambridge United attack 0.846 / def 1.175 | Bolton attack 0.862 / def 0.940 | league avg home 1.304 / away 1.243 • Poisson stance: Bolton (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Cambridge United xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Bolton xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cambridge United vs Bolton kick off?
Cambridge United vs Bolton kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 12 November 2022 at Abbey Stadium.
What was the final score in Cambridge United vs Bolton?
Cambridge United 0 - 0 Bolton.
Where is Cambridge United vs Bolton being played?
The match is being played at Abbey Stadium.
What competition is Cambridge United vs Bolton part of?
Cambridge United vs Bolton is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Cambridge United vs Bolton?
Our statistical model gives Cambridge United a 30% chance of winning, Bolton a 41% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Bolton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cambridge United vs Bolton?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Cambridge United and Bolton will score (BTTS).
Will Cambridge United vs Bolton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cambridge United and Bolton?
Record (2 meetings): Cambridge United 1W | Draws 0 | Bolton 1W.
What form are Cambridge United and Bolton in?
Cambridge United (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Bolton (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Cambridge United's attack at 0.85x the league average against Bolton's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.04 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Bolton's attack (0.86x) against Cambridge United's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.26.
These ratings are built from 63/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.8%), 0-1 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bolton Win
30%
3.29
28%
3.55
41%
2.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.7%
Away win
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Cambridge United xG
Total xG
2.30
1.26
Bolton xG
3.29
30%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
2.42
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
28%
3.52
35%
2.82
Win to Nil
9%
11.57
15%
6.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 12.7 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 13.1 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 6.8 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cambridge United vs Bolton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Cambridge United and Bolton expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Cambridge United and 1.26 for Bolton, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Cambridge United vs Bolton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 62 outings, Cambridge United have picked up 1.23 PPG on a 21W 13D 28L record — L-L-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Cambridge United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bolton's form line: 29W 13D 20L from 62 games, 1.61 PPG, last five L-D-W-W-L. The sample for Bolton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.23 PPG for Cambridge United against 1.61 for Bolton. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Cambridge United have posted 1.43 PPG from 30 outings (12W 7D 11L).
On the road, Bolton have gone 11W 5D 14L from 30 away games — 1.27 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cambridge United are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; Bolton are on 1.50 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Last 62 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cambridge United
Blended
Bolton
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cambridge United and Bolton in coming into this match?
Cambridge United have gone 21W 13D 28L in their last 62 games (1.23 PPG), while Bolton have gone 29W 13D 20L in their last 62 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cambridge United at home or Bolton away?
Cambridge United's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cambridge United at home: 1.43 PPG; Bolton away: 1.27 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cambridge United have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Bolton — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Cambridge United
4
Draws
3
Bolton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cambridge United and Bolton?
From 8 meetings on record, Cambridge United have won 1, Bolton have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Cambridge United and Bolton last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2025, when Bolton 2-2 Cambridge United.
Who has won more matches between Cambridge United and Bolton?
Bolton have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cambridge United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Bolton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cambridge United 40%, Bolton 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Cambridge United) and 40% (Bolton).
On the defensive side: Cambridge United keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Cambridge United have failed to score in 33% of games; Bolton in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cambridge United home games / Bolton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cambridge United play Bolton?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Cambridge United's recent matches and 40% of Bolton's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cambridge United vs Bolton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Cambridge United's recent games and 40% of Bolton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cambridge United and Bolton tend to score early?
Cambridge United have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Bolton in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Cambridge United's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cambridge United and Bolton finished level at 0-0 at Abbey Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cambridge United 1.04 xG and Bolton 1.26 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Cambridge United fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Bolton landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cambridge United attack 0.85 / defence 1.18 against Bolton attack 0.86 / defence 0.94, drawn from 63/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cambridge United 30% | Draw 28% | Bolton 41%, with Bolton to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cambridge United 52%, Bolton 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cambridge United's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Bolton's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cambridge United 1.23 PPG, Bolton 1.61 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Cambridge United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Bolton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.