Burton Albion 0-0 Wigan – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Wigan at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Burton Albion vs Wigan encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Burton Albion host Wigan at Pirelli Stadium in League One, Regular Season - 40. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 12 April 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League One games this season, Burton Albion have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L W L L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Pirelli Stadium, Burton Albion have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Burton Albion are significantly better at Pirelli Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Wigan stand at 7W 2D 1L from 10 League One matches — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Wigan's away record: 6W 3D 1L from 10 road trips in League One this season (2.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Wigan's 2.30 PPG return is 1.50 points per game ahead of Burton Albion's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Burton Albion have won 0, Wigan 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Oct 2021, ended 0–2 with Wigan winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Burton Albion trading profile (40 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Wigan trading profile (40 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Burton Albion 58% versus Wigan 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Burton Albion 52% | Wigan 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Burton Albion 1.01 xG and Wigan 1.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burton Albion attack 0.981 / defence 1.215 | Wigan attack 1.196 / defence 0.941. League average goals — home 1.096 / away 1.163. Data: 41 Burton Albion games / 40 Wigan games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Burton Albion 21% | Draw 27% | Wigan 52%. Fair-value odds: Burton Albion 4.76 | Draw 3.70 | Wigan 1.92. Wigan hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Wigan at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wigan offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.70 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Burton Albion 50% | Wigan 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Burton Albion vs Wigan | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 40 | Venue: Pirelli Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 12 Apr 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Burton Albion 21% | Draw 27% | Wigan 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 53% | xG Burton Albion 1.01 / Wigan 1.69 • Poisson strength factors: Burton Albion attack 0.981 / def 1.215 | Wigan attack 1.196 / def 0.941 | league avg home 1.096 / away 1.163 • Poisson stance: Wigan (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Burton Albion xG
Expected Goals
1.69
Wigan xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Burton Albion vs Wigan kick off?
Burton Albion vs Wigan kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 12 April 2022 at Pirelli Stadium.
What was the final score in Burton Albion vs Wigan?
Burton Albion 0 - 0 Wigan.
Where is Burton Albion vs Wigan being played?
The match is being played at Pirelli Stadium.
What competition is Burton Albion vs Wigan part of?
Burton Albion vs Wigan is a Regular Season - 40 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Burton Albion vs Wigan?
Our statistical model gives Burton Albion a 21% chance of winning, Wigan a 52% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Wigan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Burton Albion vs Wigan?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Burton Albion and Wigan will score (BTTS).
Will Burton Albion vs Wigan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Burton Albion and Wigan?
Record (1 meetings): Burton Albion 0W | Draws 0 | Wigan 1W.
What form are Burton Albion and Wigan in?
Burton Albion (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-W-L-L-D. Wigan (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Burton Albion's attack at 0.98x the league average against Wigan's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.01 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Wigan's attack versus Burton Albion's defence, projects 1.69 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (9.8%), 1-2 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wigan Win
21%
4.69
27%
3.76
52%
1.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Burton Albion xG
Total xG
2.70
1.69
Wigan xG
4.69
21%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
1.92
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
18%
5.42
36%
2.75
Win to Nil
4%
25.43
19%
5.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 11.3 | 9.6 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 11.5 | 9.7 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 5.8 | 4.9 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Burton Albion vs Wigan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Burton Albion and Wigan expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Burton Albion and 1.69 for Wigan, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Burton Albion vs Wigan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Burton Albion come into this having played 40 games, going 12W 9D 19L for 1.12 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-D.
On the other side, Wigan sit at 2.15 PPG from 40 outings (26W 8D 6L), a run that reads W-W-D-W-W across their last five.
Wigan carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.03 PPG clear of Burton Albion — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Burton Albion's home form reads 8W 5D 6L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.53 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.12 PPG overall — Burton Albion are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Wigan have taken 2.26 points per game from 19 outings (13W 4D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wigan come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Burton Albion are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Wigan are on 1.82 scored and 0.90 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Wigan in 60%.
Defensively: Wigan in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Burton Albion
Current Season
Wigan
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Burton Albion and Wigan in coming into this match?
Burton Albion have gone 12W 9D 19L in their last 40 games (1.12 PPG), while Wigan have gone 26W 8D 6L in their last 40 (2.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Burton Albion at home or Wigan away?
Wigan's away record (2.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Burton Albion at home: 1.53 PPG; Wigan away: 2.26 PPG.
Have Burton Albion or Wigan been keeping clean sheets recently?
Burton Albion have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, Wigan in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Burton Albion and Wigan runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. They last met on 29 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Wigan go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Burton Albion's record when hosting Wigan specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Burton Albion
3
Draws
3
Wigan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Burton Albion and Wigan?
From 8 meetings on record, Burton Albion have won 2, Wigan have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Burton Albion and Wigan last play each other?
They last met on 29 December 2025, when Burton Albion 0-2 Wigan.
Who has won more matches between Burton Albion and Wigan?
Wigan have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Burton Albion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Wigan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Burton Albion 58%, Wigan 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Burton Albion) and 58% (Wigan).
On the defensive side: Wigan in 32%; Burton Albion have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Burton Albion home games / Wigan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Burton Albion play Wigan?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Burton Albion's games and 63% of Wigan's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Burton Albion vs Wigan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Burton Albion's recent games and 58% of Wigan's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Burton Albion and Wigan tend to score early?
Burton Albion have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Wigan in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Burton Albion's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Pirelli Stadium, Regular Season - 40, as Burton Albion and Wigan drew 0-0 in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Burton Albion 1.01 xG and Wigan 1.69 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Burton Albion fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Wigan landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burton Albion attack 0.98 / defence 1.22 against Wigan attack 1.20 / defence 0.94, drawn from 41/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Burton Albion 21% | Draw 27% | Wigan 52%, with Wigan to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burton Albion 52%, Wigan 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Burton Albion's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Wigan's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Wigan arrived the stronger side — 2.15 PPG against 1.12. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Burton Albion (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.53 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line. Wigan (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.05 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.89 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.