Burton Albion 0-2 Shrewsbury – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Burton Albion at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Burton Albion vs Shrewsbury fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Shrewsbury make the trip to Pirelli Stadium to face Burton Albion in League One, Regular Season - 36. The match kicks off on Saturday 26 February 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Burton Albion have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L D W L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Burton Albion's home record at Pirelli Stadium: 4W 2D 4L from 10 League One appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Shrewsbury (all games): 1W 6D 3L across 10 League One outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: D D D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Shrewsbury have gone 1W 5D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Burton Albion against 0.90 for Shrewsbury. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Burton Albion lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Aug 2021, ended 1–0 with Burton Albion winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Burton Albion half-time and goal-timing data (33 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Shrewsbury half-time and goal-timing data (33 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Burton Albion 61% versus Shrewsbury 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Burton Albion 52% | Shrewsbury 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Burton Albion 1.14 xG and Shrewsbury 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burton Albion attack 1.081 / defence 1.199 | Shrewsbury attack 0.518 / defence 0.957. League average goals — home 1.104 / away 1.227. Data: 34 Burton Albion games / 33 Shrewsbury games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Burton Albion 44% | Draw 33% | Shrewsbury 24%. Fair-value odds: Burton Albion 2.27 | Draw 3.03 | Shrewsbury 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.90. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.90 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Burton Albion at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Burton Albion if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.90 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 30% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 37% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Burton Albion 50% | Shrewsbury 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Burton Albion vs Shrewsbury | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Pirelli Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Feb 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Burton Albion 44% | Draw 33% | Shrewsbury 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 37% | xG Burton Albion 1.14 / Shrewsbury 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: Burton Albion attack 1.081 / def 1.199 | Shrewsbury attack 0.518 / def 0.957 | league avg home 1.104 / away 1.227 • Poisson stance: Burton Albion (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Burton Albion xG
Expected Goals
0.76
Shrewsbury xG
37%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Burton Albion vs Shrewsbury kick off?
Burton Albion vs Shrewsbury kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 26 February 2022 at Pirelli Stadium.
What was the final score in Burton Albion vs Shrewsbury?
Burton Albion 0 - 2 Shrewsbury.
Where is Burton Albion vs Shrewsbury being played?
The match is being played at Pirelli Stadium.
What competition is Burton Albion vs Shrewsbury part of?
Burton Albion vs Shrewsbury is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Burton Albion vs Shrewsbury?
Our statistical model gives Burton Albion a 44% chance of winning, Shrewsbury a 24% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Burton Albion the favourite.
Will both teams score in Burton Albion vs Shrewsbury?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Burton Albion and Shrewsbury will score (BTTS).
Will Burton Albion vs Shrewsbury have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Burton Albion and Shrewsbury?
Record (1 meetings): Burton Albion 1W | Draws 0 | Shrewsbury 0W.
What form are Burton Albion and Shrewsbury in?
Burton Albion (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-W-L-D. Shrewsbury (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Burton Albion's attack at 1.08x the league average against Shrewsbury's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.14 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Shrewsbury's attack (0.52x) against Burton Albion's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 0.76.
These ratings are built from 34/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (15.3%), 1-1 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Burton Albion Win
44%
2.28
33%
3.07
24%
4.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.0%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.9%
Draw
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Burton Albion xG
Total xG
1.90
0.76
Shrewsbury xG
2.28
44%
Home win
3.07
33%
Draw
4.23
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.70
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
47%
2.14
32%
3.13
Win to Nil
20%
4.88
8%
13.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.9 | 11.3 | 4.3 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.0 | 13.0 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 9.7 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.7 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Burton Albion vs Shrewsbury?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.6%.
How many goals are Burton Albion and Shrewsbury expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Burton Albion and 0.76 for Shrewsbury, a combined total of 1.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Burton Albion vs Shrewsbury?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Burton Albion's recent record stands at 11W 8D 14L from 33 games, a 1.24 PPG return, with L-D-W-L-D in the last five.
Shrewsbury, meanwhile, have gone 8W 10D 15L across 33 games — 1.03 PPG, with D-D-D-L-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.24 PPG for Burton Albion against 1.03 for Shrewsbury. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Burton Albion have managed 8W 4D 5L from 17 games — 1.65 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.24 PPG overall — Burton Albion are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Shrewsbury's away record stands at 1W 6D 10L across 17 trips, a 0.53 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.03 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Shrewsbury's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Burton Albion come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Burton Albion are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Shrewsbury are on 0.88 scored and 1.06 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Burton Albion have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 33 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Burton Albion
Current Season
Shrewsbury
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Burton Albion and Shrewsbury in coming into this match?
Burton Albion have gone 11W 8D 14L in their last 33 games (1.24 PPG), while Shrewsbury have gone 8W 10D 15L in their last 33 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Burton Albion at home or Shrewsbury away?
Burton Albion's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Burton Albion at home: 1.65 PPG; Shrewsbury away: 0.53 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Burton Albion have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Shrewsbury won 0-4 on 14 Jan 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Burton Albion have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Shrewsbury — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Burton Albion
0
Draws
4
Shrewsbury
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Burton Albion and Shrewsbury?
From 8 meetings on record, Burton Albion have won 4, Shrewsbury have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Burton Albion and Shrewsbury last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2025, when Shrewsbury 0-2 Burton Albion.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Burton Albion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Shrewsbury see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Burton Albion 65%, Shrewsbury 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Burton Albion) and 29% (Shrewsbury).
On the defensive side: Shrewsbury in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Burton Albion home games / Shrewsbury away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Burton Albion play Shrewsbury?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 65% of Burton Albion's recent matches and 41% of Shrewsbury's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Burton Albion vs Shrewsbury usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Burton Albion's recent games and 29% of Shrewsbury's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Burton Albion and Shrewsbury tend to score early?
Burton Albion have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Shrewsbury in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shrewsbury cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Burton Albion.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shrewsbury beat Burton Albion 0-2 at Pirelli Stadium, Regular Season - 36, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Burton Albion 1.14 xG and Shrewsbury 0.76 xG, a combined 1.90. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Burton Albion fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Shrewsbury outscored their 0.76 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burton Albion attack 1.08 / defence 1.20 against Shrewsbury attack 0.52 / defence 0.96, drawn from 34/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Burton Albion 44% | Draw 33% | Shrewsbury 24%, with Burton Albion to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a Shrewsbury win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burton Albion 52%, Shrewsbury 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Burton Albion's trading profile (33 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Shrewsbury's trading profile (33 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Burton Albion 1.24 PPG, Shrewsbury 1.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Shrewsbury win broke the near-deadlock. Burton Albion (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.65 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Shrewsbury (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.59 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.