Burton Albion 0-2 Sheffield Wednesday – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Burton Albion at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Burton Albion vs Sheffield Wednesday fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sheffield Wednesday make the trip to Pirelli Stadium to face Burton Albion in League One, Regular Season - 31. The match kicks off on Saturday 5 February 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Burton Albion have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: D W D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Burton Albion at Pirelli Stadium this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Sheffield Wednesday's overall League One record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: L W L W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling in League One this season, Sheffield Wednesday have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.70 PPG for Burton Albion against 1.70 for Sheffield Wednesday. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Burton Albion have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Sheffield Wednesday in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading
Burton Albion half-time and goal-timing data (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Sheffield Wednesday half-time and goal-timing data (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Burton Albion 57% versus Sheffield Wednesday 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Burton Albion 46% | Sheffield Wednesday 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Burton Albion 1.62 xG and Sheffield Wednesday 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burton Albion attack 1.064 / defence 1.066 | Sheffield Wednesday attack 0.843 / defence 1.378. League average goals — home 1.103 / away 1.260. Sheffield Wednesday bring a strong defensive rating of 1.378 — this is suppressing Burton Albion's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 28 Burton Albion games / 28 Sheffield Wednesday games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Burton Albion 49% | Draw 25% | Sheffield Wednesday 27%. Fair-value odds: Burton Albion 2.04 | Draw 4.00 | Sheffield Wednesday 3.70. Burton Albion hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Burton Albion as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Burton Albion if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.75 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Burton Albion 60% | Sheffield Wednesday 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Burton Albion vs Sheffield Wednesday | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Pirelli Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Feb 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Burton Albion 49% | Draw 25% | Sheffield Wednesday 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 54% | xG Burton Albion 1.62 / Sheffield Wednesday 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Burton Albion attack 1.064 / def 1.066 | Sheffield Wednesday attack 0.843 / def 1.378 | league avg home 1.103 / away 1.260 • Poisson stance: Burton Albion (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Burton Albion xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Sheffield Wednesday xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Burton Albion vs Sheffield Wednesday kick off?
Burton Albion vs Sheffield Wednesday kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 5 February 2022 at Pirelli Stadium.
What was the final score in Burton Albion vs Sheffield Wednesday?
Burton Albion 0 - 2 Sheffield Wednesday.
Where is Burton Albion vs Sheffield Wednesday being played?
The match is being played at Pirelli Stadium.
What competition is Burton Albion vs Sheffield Wednesday part of?
Burton Albion vs Sheffield Wednesday is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Burton Albion vs Sheffield Wednesday?
Our statistical model gives Burton Albion a 49% chance of winning, Sheffield Wednesday a 27% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Burton Albion the favourite.
Will both teams score in Burton Albion vs Sheffield Wednesday?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Burton Albion and Sheffield Wednesday will score (BTTS).
Will Burton Albion vs Sheffield Wednesday have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Burton Albion and Sheffield Wednesday?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Burton Albion and Sheffield Wednesday in?
Burton Albion (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-D-L-W. Sheffield Wednesday (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Burton Albion's attack rating (1.06) and Sheffield Wednesday's defence rating (1.38), the model arrives at 1.62 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Sheffield Wednesday's attack (0.84x) against Burton Albion's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.13.
These ratings are built from 28/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Burton Albion Win
49%
2.06
25%
4.01
27%
3.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Burton Albion xG
Total xG
2.75
1.13
Sheffield Wednesday xG
2.06
49%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
3.77
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
20%
5.04
Win to Nil
16%
6.39
5%
18.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 7.2 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 11.7 | 6.6 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.5 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.1 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Burton Albion vs Sheffield Wednesday?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Burton Albion and Sheffield Wednesday expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Burton Albion and 1.13 for Sheffield Wednesday, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Burton Albion vs Sheffield Wednesday?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Burton Albion come into this having played 28 games, going 11W 6D 11L for 1.39 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-L-W.
On the other side, Sheffield Wednesday sit at 1.64 PPG from 28 outings (12W 10D 6L), a run that reads L-W-L-W-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.39 PPG for Burton Albion against 1.64 for Sheffield Wednesday. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Burton Albion's home form reads 7W 3D 4L across 14 games on their own ground, a 1.71 PPG return.
Away from home, Sheffield Wednesday have taken 1.21 points per game from 14 outings (4W 5D 5L). That's a step down from their 1.64 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Sheffield Wednesday's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Burton Albion come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Burton Albion are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Sheffield Wednesday are on 1.39 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Defensively: Sheffield Wednesday in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 28 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Burton Albion
Current Season
Sheffield Wednesday
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Burton Albion and Sheffield Wednesday in coming into this match?
Burton Albion have gone 11W 6D 11L in their last 28 games (1.39 PPG), while Sheffield Wednesday have gone 12W 10D 6L in their last 28 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Burton Albion at home or Sheffield Wednesday away?
Burton Albion's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Burton Albion at home: 1.71 PPG; Sheffield Wednesday away: 1.21 PPG.
Have Burton Albion or Sheffield Wednesday been keeping clean sheets recently?
Burton Albion have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Sheffield Wednesday in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since February 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sheffield Wednesday won 5-2 on 1 Mar 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Burton Albion have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Sheffield Wednesday — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Burton Albion
0
Draws
3
Sheffield Wednesday
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Burton Albion and Sheffield Wednesday?
From 4 meetings on record, Burton Albion have won 1, Sheffield Wednesday have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Burton Albion and Sheffield Wednesday last play each other?
They last met on 15 April 2023, when Burton Albion 3-2 Sheffield Wednesday.
Who has won more matches between Burton Albion and Sheffield Wednesday?
Sheffield Wednesday have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Burton Albion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Sheffield Wednesday are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Burton Albion 64%, Sheffield Wednesday 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Burton Albion) and 50% (Sheffield Wednesday).
On the defensive side: Sheffield Wednesday in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Burton Albion home games / Sheffield Wednesday away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Burton Albion play Sheffield Wednesday?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Burton Albion's games and 50% of Sheffield Wednesday's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Burton Albion vs Sheffield Wednesday usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Burton Albion's recent games and 50% of Sheffield Wednesday's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Burton Albion and Sheffield Wednesday tend to score early?
Burton Albion have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Sheffield Wednesday in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sheffield Wednesday cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Burton Albion.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sheffield Wednesday beat Burton Albion 0-2 at Pirelli Stadium, Regular Season - 31, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Burton Albion 1.62 xG and Sheffield Wednesday 1.13 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Burton Albion fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Sheffield Wednesday outscored their 1.13 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burton Albion attack 1.06 / defence 1.07 against Sheffield Wednesday attack 0.84 / defence 1.38, drawn from 28/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Burton Albion 49% | Draw 25% | Sheffield Wednesday 27%, with Burton Albion to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual Sheffield Wednesday win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burton Albion 46%, Sheffield Wednesday 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Burton Albion's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sheffield Wednesday's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Burton Albion 1.39 PPG, Sheffield Wednesday 1.64 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sheffield Wednesday win broke the near-deadlock. Burton Albion (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.64 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sheffield Wednesday (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.57 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.