Burton Albion 2-0 Charlton – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Burton Albion at 41%, yet the head-to-head data favours Charlton — this Burton Albion vs Charlton fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

Burton Albion welcome Charlton to Pirelli Stadium in League One (matchday 29). Kick-off is Saturday 20 January 2024 at 15:00 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Burton Albion stand at 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W W L D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

At home, Burton Albion have gone 5W 3D 2L in their last 10 home games (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Burton Albion are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Across their last 10 games, Charlton have recorded 1W 5D 4L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

Charlton's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 6D 3L (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The form comparison is too close to call — 0.80 PPG (Burton Albion) versus 0.80 (Charlton). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Burton Albion's games and 80% of Charlton's (from Burton Albion's last 10 home games and Charlton's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H

Charlton have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 3 of the 5 H2H matches we hold against 0 for Burton Albion.

The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.2 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 23 Dec 2023, ended Burton Albion 1–1 Charlton — a draw.

The H2H data backs the away side. Charlton have won 3 of 5 H2H matches, and at 3.2 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.

In-Play Profile

Burton Albion in-play tendencies (last 72 games, 35 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.

Charlton in-play tendencies (last 72 games, 35 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; of the 22 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 32%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 39%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Burton Albion 49% versus Charlton 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Burton Albion 47% | Charlton 56%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Burton Albion surrender their half-time lead 35% of the time, while Charlton have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 39% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Burton Albion 1.36 xG and Charlton 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burton Albion attack 0.850 / defence 0.934 | Charlton attack 1.039 / defence 1.160. League average goals — home 1.378 / away 1.163. Data: built from Burton Albion's last 73 games and Charlton's last 72.

Result probabilities: Burton Albion 41% | Draw 28% | Charlton 30%. Fair-value odds: Burton Albion 2.42 | Draw 3.52 | Charlton 3.30. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Burton Albion are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Burton Albion offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.49 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.

Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Burton Albion 60% (last 10 home games) | Charlton 80% (last 10 away games).

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights