Burton Albion 0-0 Accrington ST – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Burton Albion at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Burton Albion vs Accrington ST encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Accrington ST make the trip to Pirelli Stadium to face Burton Albion in League One, Regular Season - 34. The match kicks off on Saturday 25 February 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Burton Albion (all games): 6W 0D 4L across 10 League One fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Burton Albion at Pirelli Stadium this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Accrington ST's overall League One record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L D D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Accrington ST away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Burton Albion. A 0.90 PPG lead over Accrington ST (1.80 vs 0.90) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Burton Albion 1W, Accrington ST 0W, 2D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 13 Aug 2022, ended 4–4 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Burton Albion half-time and goal-timing data (76 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Accrington ST half-time and goal-timing data (76 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Burton Albion 53% versus Accrington ST 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Burton Albion 51% | Accrington ST 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Burton Albion 1.62 xG and Accrington ST 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burton Albion attack 1.022 / defence 1.126 | Accrington ST attack 0.675 / defence 1.263. League average goals — home 1.256 / away 1.134. Accrington ST bring a strong defensive rating of 1.263 — this is suppressing Burton Albion's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 77 Burton Albion games / 76 Accrington ST games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Burton Albion 55% | Draw 25% | Accrington ST 20%. Fair-value odds: Burton Albion 1.82 | Draw 4.00 | Accrington ST 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Burton Albion (55%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Burton Albion at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.48 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 4.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates corroborate: Burton Albion 40% | Accrington ST 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Burton Albion vs Accrington ST | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Pirelli Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Feb 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Burton Albion 55% | Draw 25% | Accrington ST 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 46% | xG Burton Albion 1.62 / Accrington ST 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Burton Albion attack 1.022 / def 1.126 | Accrington ST attack 0.675 / def 1.263 | league avg home 1.256 / away 1.134 • Poisson stance: Burton Albion (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Burton Albion xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Accrington ST xG
46%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Burton Albion vs Accrington ST kick off?
Burton Albion vs Accrington ST kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 25 February 2023 at Pirelli Stadium.
What was the final score in Burton Albion vs Accrington ST?
Burton Albion 0 - 0 Accrington ST.
Where is Burton Albion vs Accrington ST being played?
The match is being played at Pirelli Stadium.
What competition is Burton Albion vs Accrington ST part of?
Burton Albion vs Accrington ST is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Burton Albion vs Accrington ST?
Our statistical model gives Burton Albion a 55% chance of winning, Accrington ST a 20% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Burton Albion the favourite.
Will both teams score in Burton Albion vs Accrington ST?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Burton Albion and Accrington ST will score (BTTS).
Will Burton Albion vs Accrington ST have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Burton Albion and Accrington ST?
Record (3 meetings): Burton Albion 1W | Draws 2 | Accrington ST 0W.
What form are Burton Albion and Accrington ST in?
Burton Albion (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. Accrington ST (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Burton Albion's attack rating (1.02) and Accrington ST's defence rating (1.26), the model arrives at 1.62 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Accrington ST's attack (0.68x) against Burton Albion's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 0.86.
These ratings are built from 77/76 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.0%), 2-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Burton Albion Win
55%
1.81
25%
4.04
20%
5.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
2 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Burton Albion xG
Total xG
2.48
0.86
Accrington ST xG
1.81
55%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
5.02
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
42%
2.37
20%
5.06
Win to Nil
23%
4.28
4%
25.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 7.2 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.5 | 11.7 | 5.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.0 | 9.5 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 5.9 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Burton Albion vs Accrington ST?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Burton Albion and Accrington ST expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Burton Albion and 0.86 for Accrington ST, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Burton Albion vs Accrington ST?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Burton Albion's recent record stands at 22W 18D 36L from 76 games, a 1.11 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-W in the last five.
Accrington ST, meanwhile, have gone 24W 19D 33L across 76 games — 1.20 PPG, with L-D-D-L-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.11 PPG for Burton Albion against 1.20 for Accrington ST. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Burton Albion have managed 15W 10D 13L from 38 games — 1.45 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Accrington ST's away record stands at 8W 8D 22L across 38 trips, a 0.84 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Burton Albion come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Burton Albion are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Accrington ST are on 1.14 scored and 1.67 conceded.
Last 76 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Burton Albion
Current Season
Accrington ST
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Burton Albion and Accrington ST in coming into this match?
Burton Albion have gone 22W 18D 36L in their last 76 games (1.11 PPG), while Accrington ST have gone 24W 19D 33L in their last 76 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Burton Albion at home or Accrington ST away?
Burton Albion's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Burton Albion at home: 1.45 PPG; Accrington ST away: 0.84 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Burton Albion won 4-0 on 23 Nov 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Burton Albion have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Accrington ST — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Burton Albion
3
Draws
0
Accrington ST
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Burton Albion and Accrington ST?
From 4 meetings on record, Burton Albion have won 1, Accrington ST have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Burton Albion and Accrington ST last play each other?
They last met on 25 February 2023, when Burton Albion 0-0 Accrington ST.
Who has won more matches between Burton Albion and Accrington ST?
Burton Albion have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Burton Albion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Accrington ST are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Burton Albion 47%, Accrington ST 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Burton Albion) and 50% (Accrington ST).
On the defensive side: Burton Albion have failed to score in 32% of games; Accrington ST in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Burton Albion home games / Accrington ST away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Burton Albion play Accrington ST?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Burton Albion's recent matches and 42% of Accrington ST's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Burton Albion vs Accrington ST usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Burton Albion's recent games and 50% of Accrington ST's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Burton Albion and Accrington ST tend to score early?
Burton Albion have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Accrington ST in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Burton Albion's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Pirelli Stadium, Regular Season - 34, as Burton Albion and Accrington ST drew 0-0 in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Burton Albion 1.62 xG and Accrington ST 0.86 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Burton Albion fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Accrington ST landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burton Albion attack 1.02 / defence 1.13 against Accrington ST attack 0.68 / defence 1.26, drawn from 77/76 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Burton Albion 55% | Draw 25% | Accrington ST 20%, with Burton Albion to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burton Albion 51%, Accrington ST 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Burton Albion's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Accrington ST's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Burton Albion 1.11 PPG, Accrington ST 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Burton Albion (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.34 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line. Accrington ST (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.87 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.