Bradford 0-1 Stevenage – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bradford at 50% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bradford vs Stevenage encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League One encounter, Regular Season - 43 sees Stevenage travel to Valley Parade to take on Bradford. The game is scheduled for Saturday 11 April 2026, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bradford stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 League One matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L D L W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Valley Parade, Bradford have gone 8W 1D 1L this season (10 games, 2.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Valley Parade. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Bradford are significantly better at Valley Parade than their overall form suggests.
Stevenage — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 League One fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Stevenage's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in League One this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Bradford 1.60 PPG, Stevenage 1.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: Bradford have dominated this rivalry, winning 4 of 5 past contests while Stevenage have managed just 0 wins.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 25 Oct 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Bradford and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 3.2 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Profile
Bradford in-play tendencies (86 games, 43 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Stevenage in-play tendencies (86 games, 43 at away): they score before half-time in 49% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bradford 54% versus Stevenage 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bradford 49% | Stevenage 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bradford 1.20 xG and Stevenage 0.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bradford attack 0.881 / defence 0.766 | Stevenage attack 0.729 / defence 0.988. League average goals — home 1.380 / away 1.117. Bradford's defence rating of 0.766 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 41 Bradford games / 86 Stevenage games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bradford 50% | Draw 31% | Stevenage 19%. Fair-value odds: Bradford 2.00 | Draw 3.23 | Stevenage 5.26. Bradford hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 32% | Total xG 1.83. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.83 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 68% — Stevenage's lower xG of 0.62 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 32%.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bradford as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bradford offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.83 combined xG gives a 28% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 32% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Bradford 40% | Stevenage 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bradford vs Stevenage | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 43 | Venue: Valley Parade • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Apr 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bradford 50% | Draw 31% | Stevenage 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 32% | xG Bradford 1.20 / Stevenage 0.62 • Poisson strength factors: Bradford attack 0.881 / def 0.766 | Stevenage attack 0.729 / def 0.988 | league avg home 1.380 / away 1.117 • Poisson stance: Bradford (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Bradford xG
Expected Goals
0.62
Stevenage xG
32%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bradford vs Stevenage kick off?
Bradford vs Stevenage kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 11 April 2026 at Valley Parade.
What was the final score in Bradford vs Stevenage?
Bradford 0 - 1 Stevenage.
Where is Bradford vs Stevenage being played?
The match is being played at Valley Parade.
What competition is Bradford vs Stevenage part of?
Bradford vs Stevenage is a Regular Season - 43 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Bradford vs Stevenage?
Our statistical model gives Bradford a 50% chance of winning, Stevenage a 19% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Bradford the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bradford vs Stevenage?
Our model estimates a 32% probability that both Bradford and Stevenage will score (BTTS).
Will Bradford vs Stevenage have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bradford and Stevenage?
Record (5 meetings): Bradford 4W | Draws 1 | Stevenage 0W.
What form are Bradford and Stevenage in?
Bradford (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-L-W-W. Stevenage (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Bradford's attack at 0.88x the league average against Stevenage's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.20 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Stevenage's attack versus Bradford's defence, projects 0.62 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/86 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 17.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (17.7%), 1-1 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bradford Win
50%
2.00
31%
3.26
19%
5.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
19.4%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.1%
Draw
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Bradford xG
Total xG
1.83
0.62
Stevenage xG
2.00
50%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
5.20
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
32%
BTTS Yes
3.08
68%
BTTS No
1.48
Clean Sheet
54%
1.87
30%
3.33
Win to Nil
27%
3.72
6%
17.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.1 | 10.0 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 19.4 | 12.1 | 3.8 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 11.6 | 7.3 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.7 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bradford vs Stevenage?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.8%.
How many goals are Bradford and Stevenage expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Bradford and 0.62 for Stevenage, a combined total of 1.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Bradford vs Stevenage?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 86 outings, Bradford have picked up 1.70 PPG on a 42W 20D 24L record — L-D-L-W-W across the most recent five.
Stevenage's form line: 33W 22D 31L from 86 games, 1.41 PPG, last five W-L-W-D-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bradford on 1.70 PPG, Stevenage on 1.41. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Bradford have posted 2.40 PPG from 43 outings (32W 7D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.70 PPG overall — Bradford are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Stevenage have gone 12W 11D 20L from 43 away games — 1.09 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bradford come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Bradford are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; Stevenage are on 0.98 scored and 1.02 conceded.
Defensively: Stevenage in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 86 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bradford
Current Season
Stevenage
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bradford and Stevenage in coming into this match?
Bradford have gone 42W 20D 24L in their last 86 games (1.70 PPG), while Stevenage have gone 33W 22D 31L in their last 86 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bradford at home or Stevenage away?
Bradford's home record (2.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bradford at home: 2.40 PPG; Stevenage away: 1.09 PPG.
Have Bradford or Stevenage been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bradford have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Stevenage in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bradford and Stevenage runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League Two, League One all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Aug 2021, when Bradford won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bradford's record when hosting Stevenage specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Bradford
1
Draws
1
Stevenage
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bradford and Stevenage?
From 6 meetings on record, Bradford have won 4, Stevenage have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bradford and Stevenage last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Bradford 0-1 Stevenage.
Who has won more matches between Bradford and Stevenage?
Bradford have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bradford are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
Stevenage see a goal before the break in 49% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bradford 49%, Stevenage 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Bradford) and 37% (Stevenage).
On the defensive side: Bradford keep a clean sheet in 49% of their matches; Stevenage in 35%; Stevenage in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bradford home games / Stevenage away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bradford play Stevenage?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 49% of Bradford's recent matches and 40% of Stevenage's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bradford vs Stevenage usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Bradford's recent games and 37% of Stevenage's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bradford and Stevenage tend to score early?
Bradford have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Stevenage in 49% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Stevenage defy the odds to beat Bradford 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stevenage beat Bradford 0-1 at Valley Parade, Regular Season - 43, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bradford 1.20 xG and Stevenage 0.62 xG, a combined 1.83. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Bradford fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bradford attack 0.88 / defence 0.77 against Stevenage attack 0.73 / defence 0.99, drawn from 41/86 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bradford 50% | Draw 31% | Stevenage 19%, with Bradford to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Stevenage win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 54% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 32% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bradford 49%, Stevenage 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bradford's trading profile (86 games, 43 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Stevenage's trading profile (86 games, 43 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bradford 1.70 PPG, Stevenage 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stevenage win broke the near-deadlock. Bradford (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.60 scoring average — below par going forward. Stevenage (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.