Bolton 1-2 Charlton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bolton at 41% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bolton vs Charlton encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League One clash, Regular Season - 26 as Bolton welcome Charlton to Toughsheet Community Stadium. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 21 January 2025 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bolton stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 League One matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L W L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Bolton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bolton's home record at Toughsheet Community Stadium: 6W 2D 2L from 10 League One appearances (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Bolton are significantly better at Toughsheet Community Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all League One games this season, Charlton have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Charlton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Charlton's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in League One this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Bolton 1.20 PPG, Charlton 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: Bolton have dominated this rivalry, winning 5 of 7 past contests while Charlton have managed just 1 wins.
The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.6 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 24 Aug 2024, ended 0–2 with Charlton winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Bolton and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 3.6 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Bolton trading profile (70 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Charlton trading profile (70 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Bolton 56% and Charlton 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bolton 54% | Charlton 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bolton 1.65 xG and Charlton 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bolton attack 1.207 / defence 1.154 | Charlton attack 1.111 / defence 1.085. League average goals — home 1.260 / away 1.170. Data: 71 Bolton games / 70 Charlton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bolton 41% | Draw 24% | Charlton 35%. Fair-value odds: Bolton 2.44 | Draw 4.17 | Charlton 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.15. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.15 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.65 / 1.50) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bolton are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bolton offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.15 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate: Bolton 70% | Charlton 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bolton vs Charlton | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Toughsheet Community Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 21 Jan 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bolton 41% | Draw 24% | Charlton 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 63% | xG Bolton 1.65 / Charlton 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Bolton attack 1.207 / def 1.154 | Charlton attack 1.111 / def 1.085 | league avg home 1.260 / away 1.170 • Poisson stance: Bolton (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
Bolton xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Charlton xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bolton vs Charlton kick off?
Bolton vs Charlton kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 21 January 2025 at Toughsheet Community Stadium.
What was the final score in Bolton vs Charlton?
Bolton 1 - 2 Charlton.
Where is Bolton vs Charlton being played?
The match is being played at Toughsheet Community Stadium.
What competition is Bolton vs Charlton part of?
Bolton vs Charlton is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Bolton vs Charlton?
Our statistical model gives Bolton a 41% chance of winning, Charlton a 35% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Bolton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bolton vs Charlton?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Bolton and Charlton will score (BTTS).
Will Bolton vs Charlton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bolton and Charlton?
Record (7 meetings): Bolton 5W | Draws 1 | Charlton 1W.
What form are Bolton and Charlton in?
Bolton (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-L-D. Charlton (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Bolton's attacking strength (1.21x league average) is weighed against Charlton's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.65. The same calculation in reverse, Charlton's attack versus Bolton's defence, projects 1.50 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 71/70 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bolton Win
41%
2.43
24%
4.13
35%
2.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 2
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Bolton xG
Total xG
3.15
1.50
Charlton xG
2.43
41%
Home win
4.13
24%
Draw
2.89
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.71
Clean Sheet
22%
4.48
19%
5.21
Win to Nil
9%
10.89
7%
15.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 6.4 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 10.6 | 8.0 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.8 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.8 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bolton vs Charlton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Bolton and Charlton expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Bolton and 1.50 for Charlton, a combined total of 3.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Bolton vs Charlton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 70 outings, Bolton have picked up 1.70 PPG on a 34W 17D 19L record — W-L-W-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Bolton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Charlton's form line: 20W 27D 23L from 70 games, 1.24 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-L. The sample for Charlton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Bolton are the form team by 0.46 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Charlton.
Venue Form
On home soil, Bolton have posted 1.86 PPG from 35 outings (19W 8D 8L).
On the road, Charlton have gone 7W 14D 14L from 35 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bolton come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Bolton are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Charlton are on 1.33 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Charlton in 64%.
Last 70 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bolton
Blended
Charlton
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bolton and Charlton in coming into this match?
Bolton have gone 34W 17D 19L in their last 70 games (1.70 PPG), while Charlton have gone 20W 27D 23L in their last 70 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bolton at home or Charlton away?
Bolton's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bolton at home: 1.86 PPG; Charlton away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Charlton have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Sep 2021, when Bolton won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bolton's record when hosting Charlton specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Bolton
1
Draws
2
Charlton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bolton and Charlton?
From 8 meetings on record, Bolton have won 5, Charlton have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bolton and Charlton last play each other?
They last met on 21 January 2025, when Bolton 1-2 Charlton.
Who has won more matches between Bolton and Charlton?
Bolton have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bolton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Charlton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bolton 60%, Charlton 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Bolton) and 40% (Charlton).
On the defensive side: Charlton in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bolton home games / Charlton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bolton play Charlton?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Bolton's games and 60% of Charlton's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bolton vs Charlton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 63% of Bolton's recent games and 40% of Charlton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bolton and Charlton tend to score early?
Bolton have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Charlton in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Charlton defy the odds to beat Bolton 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Charlton beat Bolton 1-2 at Toughsheet Community Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bolton 1.65 xG and Charlton 1.50 xG, a combined 3.15. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bolton attack 1.21 / defence 1.15 against Charlton attack 1.11 / defence 1.08, drawn from 71/70 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bolton 41% | Draw 24% | Charlton 35%, with Bolton to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Charlton win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bolton 54%, Charlton 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bolton's trading profile (70 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Charlton's trading profile (70 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Bolton arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 1.24. Form was overturned, with Charlton winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Bolton (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.97 scoring average — below par going forward. Charlton (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.