Accrington ST 1-0 Shrewsbury – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Accrington ST at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Accrington ST vs Shrewsbury encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Wham Stadium plays host to Accrington ST versus Shrewsbury in League One, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off: Saturday 4 September 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Accrington ST have collected 1.80 PPG across 5 League One outings this season: 3W 0D 2L. Last five: L W W W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets in 5 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Accrington ST have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Shrewsbury (all games): 1W 0D 4L across 5 League One outings this term — 0.60 points per game. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Shrewsbury have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The points-per-game gap of 1.20 in Accrington ST's favour (1.80 vs 0.60) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading Data
Accrington ST goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (5 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Shrewsbury goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (5 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; they fail to score in 80% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Accrington ST 40% | Shrewsbury 20%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Accrington ST 40% | Shrewsbury 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Accrington ST 1.28 xG and Shrewsbury 0.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Accrington ST attack 0.999 / defence 1.075 | Shrewsbury attack 0.657 / defence 1.233. League average goals — home 1.040 / away 0.920. Shrewsbury bring a strong defensive rating of 1.233 — this is suppressing Accrington ST's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 5 Accrington ST games / 5 Shrewsbury games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Accrington ST 52% | Draw 29% | Shrewsbury 19%. Fair-value odds: Accrington ST 1.92 | Draw 3.45 | Shrewsbury 5.26. Accrington ST hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 1.93. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.93 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Shrewsbury's lower xG of 0.65 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Accrington ST at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Accrington ST if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.93 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 30% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 34% on No. Form rates corroborate: Accrington ST 40% | Shrewsbury 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Accrington ST vs Shrewsbury | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Wham Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Sep 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Accrington ST 52% | Draw 29% | Shrewsbury 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 34% | xG Accrington ST 1.28 / Shrewsbury 0.65 • Poisson strength factors: Accrington ST attack 0.999 / def 1.075 | Shrewsbury attack 0.657 / def 1.233 | league avg home 1.040 / away 0.920 • Poisson stance: Accrington ST (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Accrington ST xG
Expected Goals
0.65
Shrewsbury xG
34%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Accrington ST vs Shrewsbury kick off?
Accrington ST vs Shrewsbury kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 4 September 2021 at Wham Stadium.
What was the final score in Accrington ST vs Shrewsbury?
Accrington ST 1 - 0 Shrewsbury.
Where is Accrington ST vs Shrewsbury being played?
The match is being played at Wham Stadium.
What competition is Accrington ST vs Shrewsbury part of?
Accrington ST vs Shrewsbury is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Accrington ST vs Shrewsbury?
Our statistical model gives Accrington ST a 52% chance of winning, Shrewsbury a 19% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Accrington ST the favourite.
Will both teams score in Accrington ST vs Shrewsbury?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both Accrington ST and Shrewsbury will score (BTTS).
Will Accrington ST vs Shrewsbury have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Accrington ST and Shrewsbury?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Accrington ST and Shrewsbury in?
Accrington ST (all comps): 3W-0D-2L in 5 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-W-L. Shrewsbury (all comps): 1W-0D-4L in 5 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Accrington ST's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Shrewsbury's defensive record (1.23x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.28. Flip it around — Shrewsbury's attack (0.66x) against Accrington ST's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 0.65.
These ratings are built from 5/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 17.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (16.1%), 1-1 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Accrington ST Win
52%
1.93
29%
3.41
19%
5.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.6%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.5%
Draw
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Accrington ST xG
Total xG
1.93
0.65
Shrewsbury xG
1.93
52%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
5.30
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.90
66%
BTTS No
1.53
Clean Sheet
52%
1.91
28%
3.60
Win to Nil
27%
3.69
5%
19.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.5 | 9.4 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 18.6 | 12.1 | 3.9 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 11.9 | 7.7 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.1 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Accrington ST vs Shrewsbury?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.0%.
How many goals are Accrington ST and Shrewsbury expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Accrington ST and 0.65 for Shrewsbury, a combined total of 1.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Accrington ST vs Shrewsbury?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Accrington ST's recent record stands at 3W 0D 2L from 5 games, a 1.80 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Accrington ST, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Shrewsbury, meanwhile, have gone 1W 0D 4L across 5 games — 0.60 PPG, with L-L-L-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Shrewsbury, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Accrington ST by 1.20 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Shrewsbury heading into this one.
Attack vs Defence
Accrington ST are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Shrewsbury are on 0.40 scored and 1.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Shrewsbury in 20%.
Defensively: Accrington ST have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Accrington ST
Early Season
Shrewsbury
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Accrington ST and Shrewsbury in coming into this match?
Accrington ST have gone 3W 0D 2L in their last 5 games (1.80 PPG), while Shrewsbury have gone 1W 0D 4L in their last 5 (0.60 PPG).
Have Accrington ST or Shrewsbury been keeping clean sheets recently?
Accrington ST have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Shrewsbury in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League One, League Two all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Accrington ST have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Shrewsbury — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Accrington ST
2
Draws
1
Shrewsbury
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Accrington ST and Shrewsbury?
From 6 meetings on record, Accrington ST have won 3, Shrewsbury have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Accrington ST and Shrewsbury last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Accrington ST 0-2 Shrewsbury.
Who has won more matches between Accrington ST and Shrewsbury?
Accrington ST have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Accrington ST are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Shrewsbury are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 40% (Accrington ST) and 20% (Shrewsbury) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Accrington ST) and 40% (Shrewsbury).
On the defensive side: Accrington ST keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Shrewsbury in 80%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Accrington ST home games / Shrewsbury away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Accrington ST play Shrewsbury?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Accrington ST's recent matches and 20% of Shrewsbury's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Accrington ST vs Shrewsbury usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Accrington ST's recent games and 40% of Shrewsbury's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Accrington ST and Shrewsbury tend to score early?
Accrington ST have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Shrewsbury in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Accrington ST edge out Shrewsbury 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Accrington ST beat Shrewsbury 1-0 at Wham Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Accrington ST 1.28 xG and Shrewsbury 0.65 xG, a combined 1.93. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Accrington ST attack 1.00 / defence 1.07 against Shrewsbury attack 0.66 / defence 1.23, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Accrington ST 52% | Draw 29% | Shrewsbury 19%, with Accrington ST to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 57% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Accrington ST 40%, Shrewsbury 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 30%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Accrington ST's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Shrewsbury's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 20% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 80% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Accrington ST arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 0.60. That form edge translated into the three points. Accrington ST conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.