Accrington ST 1-0 Cheltenham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cheltenham at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Accrington ST vs Cheltenham fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Wham Stadium plays host to Accrington ST versus Cheltenham in League One, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off: Saturday 17 September 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Accrington ST have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: D D L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Accrington ST, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Wham Stadium, Accrington ST have gone 3W 5D 2L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Cheltenham (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 League One outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: D W L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Cheltenham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cheltenham away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Accrington ST against 0.90 for Cheltenham. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Accrington ST 0W, Cheltenham 1W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.5 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 2 Apr 2022, ended 4–4 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Accrington ST half-time and goal-timing data (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Cheltenham half-time and goal-timing data (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Accrington ST 56% versus Cheltenham 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Accrington ST 56% | Cheltenham 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Accrington ST 1.38 xG and Cheltenham 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Accrington ST attack 1.030 / defence 1.266 | Cheltenham attack 0.967 / defence 1.007. League average goals — home 1.326 / away 1.139. Data: 54 Accrington ST games / 54 Cheltenham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Accrington ST 36% | Draw 27% | Cheltenham 37%. Fair-value odds: Accrington ST 2.78 | Draw 3.70 | Cheltenham 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cheltenham are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cheltenham if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.77 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Accrington ST 70% | Cheltenham 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Accrington ST vs Cheltenham | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Wham Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Sep 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Accrington ST 36% | Draw 27% | Cheltenham 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 57% | xG Accrington ST 1.38 / Cheltenham 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Accrington ST attack 1.030 / def 1.266 | Cheltenham attack 0.967 / def 1.007 | league avg home 1.326 / away 1.139 • Poisson stance: Cheltenham (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Accrington ST xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Cheltenham xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Accrington ST vs Cheltenham kick off?
Accrington ST vs Cheltenham kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 17 September 2022 at Wham Stadium.
What was the final score in Accrington ST vs Cheltenham?
Accrington ST 1 - 0 Cheltenham.
Where is Accrington ST vs Cheltenham being played?
The match is being played at Wham Stadium.
What competition is Accrington ST vs Cheltenham part of?
Accrington ST vs Cheltenham is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Accrington ST vs Cheltenham?
Our statistical model gives Accrington ST a 36% chance of winning, Cheltenham a 37% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Cheltenham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Accrington ST vs Cheltenham?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Accrington ST and Cheltenham will score (BTTS).
Will Accrington ST vs Cheltenham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Accrington ST and Cheltenham?
Record (2 meetings): Accrington ST 0W | Draws 1 | Cheltenham 1W.
What form are Accrington ST and Cheltenham in?
Accrington ST (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-L-L-L. Cheltenham (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Accrington ST's attack at 1.03x the league average against Cheltenham's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.38 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Cheltenham's attack (0.97x) against Accrington ST's defence (1.27x) — and the away total comes out at 1.40.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cheltenham Win
36%
2.78
27%
3.67
37%
2.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.7%
Away win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Accrington ST xG
Total xG
2.77
1.40
Cheltenham xG
2.78
36%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
2.72
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
25%
4.03
25%
3.96
Win to Nil
9%
11.23
9%
10.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 8.7 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.0 | 8.4 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.3 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.8 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Accrington ST vs Cheltenham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Accrington ST and Cheltenham expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Accrington ST and 1.40 for Cheltenham, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Accrington ST vs Cheltenham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 54 outings, Accrington ST have picked up 1.26 PPG on a 18W 14D 22L record — D-D-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Accrington ST is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cheltenham's form line: 15W 19D 20L from 54 games, 1.19 PPG, last five D-W-L-D-W. The sample for Cheltenham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.26 PPG for Accrington ST against 1.19 for Cheltenham. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Accrington ST have posted 1.67 PPG from 27 outings (12W 9D 6L). That's noticeably better than their 1.26 PPG overall — Accrington ST are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Cheltenham have gone 4W 12D 11L from 27 away games — 0.89 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Accrington ST come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Accrington ST are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Cheltenham are on 1.37 scored and 1.69 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cheltenham in 63%.
Last 54 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Accrington ST
Blended
Cheltenham
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Accrington ST and Cheltenham in coming into this match?
Accrington ST have gone 18W 14D 22L in their last 54 games (1.26 PPG), while Cheltenham have gone 15W 19D 20L in their last 54 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Accrington ST at home or Cheltenham away?
Accrington ST's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Accrington ST at home: 1.67 PPG; Cheltenham away: 0.89 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League One, League Two all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Accrington ST have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Cheltenham — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Accrington ST
3
Draws
3
Cheltenham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Accrington ST and Cheltenham?
From 8 meetings on record, Accrington ST have won 2, Cheltenham have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Accrington ST and Cheltenham last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Accrington ST 3-1 Cheltenham.
Who has won more matches between Accrington ST and Cheltenham?
Cheltenham have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Accrington ST are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Cheltenham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Accrington ST 67%, Cheltenham 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Accrington ST) and 56% (Cheltenham). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cheltenham in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Accrington ST home games / Cheltenham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Accrington ST play Cheltenham?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Accrington ST's games and 63% of Cheltenham's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Accrington ST vs Cheltenham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Accrington ST's matches and 56% of Cheltenham's.
Do Accrington ST and Cheltenham tend to score early?
Accrington ST have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Cheltenham in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Accrington ST defy the odds to beat Cheltenham 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Accrington ST beat Cheltenham 1-0 at Wham Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Accrington ST 1.38 xG and Cheltenham 1.40 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Cheltenham landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Accrington ST attack 1.03 / defence 1.27 against Cheltenham attack 0.97 / defence 1.01, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Accrington ST 36% | Draw 27% | Cheltenham 37%, with Cheltenham to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Accrington ST win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Accrington ST 56%, Cheltenham 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Accrington ST's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Cheltenham's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Accrington ST 1.26 PPG, Cheltenham 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Accrington ST win broke the near-deadlock. Accrington ST (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.52 average — tighter than their form line. Cheltenham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.96 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.