Accrington ST 1-0 Bolton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Accrington ST at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Accrington ST vs Bolton fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Bolton make the trip to Wham Stadium to face Accrington ST in League One, Regular Season - 22. The match kicks off on Saturday 11 December 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Accrington ST have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Accrington ST, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Accrington ST at Wham Stadium this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Accrington ST are significantly better at Wham Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Bolton (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 League One outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: W L W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Bolton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bolton away from home this season: 3W 0D 7L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Accrington ST, 0.80 for Bolton — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading Data
Accrington ST goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Bolton goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Accrington ST 57% versus Bolton 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Accrington ST 62% | Bolton 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Accrington ST 1.69 xG and Bolton 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Accrington ST attack 1.131 / defence 1.487 | Bolton attack 0.687 / defence 1.274. League average goals — home 1.176 / away 1.311. Bolton bring a strong defensive rating of 1.274 — this is suppressing Accrington ST's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 21 Accrington ST games / 21 Bolton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Accrington ST 45% | Draw 25% | Bolton 30%. Fair-value odds: Accrington ST 2.22 | Draw 4.00 | Bolton 3.33. Accrington ST hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.69 / 1.34) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Accrington ST at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Accrington ST if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.03 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Accrington ST 70% | Bolton 20%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Accrington ST vs Bolton | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Wham Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Dec 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Accrington ST 45% | Draw 25% | Bolton 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 61% | xG Accrington ST 1.69 / Bolton 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Accrington ST attack 1.131 / def 1.487 | Bolton attack 0.687 / def 1.274 | league avg home 1.176 / away 1.311 • Poisson stance: Accrington ST (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
Accrington ST xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Bolton xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Accrington ST vs Bolton kick off?
Accrington ST vs Bolton kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 11 December 2021 at Wham Stadium.
What was the final score in Accrington ST vs Bolton?
Accrington ST 1 - 0 Bolton.
Where is Accrington ST vs Bolton being played?
The match is being played at Wham Stadium.
What competition is Accrington ST vs Bolton part of?
Accrington ST vs Bolton is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Accrington ST vs Bolton?
Our statistical model gives Accrington ST a 45% chance of winning, Bolton a 30% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Accrington ST the favourite.
Will both teams score in Accrington ST vs Bolton?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Accrington ST and Bolton will score (BTTS).
Will Accrington ST vs Bolton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Accrington ST and Bolton?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Accrington ST and Bolton in?
Accrington ST (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. Bolton (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Accrington ST's attacking strength (1.13x league average) is weighed against Bolton's defensive record (1.27x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.69. Flip it around — Bolton's attack (0.69x) against Accrington ST's defence (1.49x) — and the away total comes out at 1.34.
These ratings are built from 21/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Accrington ST Win
45%
2.20
25%
4.06
30%
3.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
Accrington ST xG
Total xG
3.03
1.34
Bolton xG
2.20
45%
Home win
4.06
25%
Draw
3.34
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.54
Clean Sheet
26%
3.82
18%
5.44
Win to Nil
12%
8.40
6%
18.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 6.5 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 10.9 | 7.3 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.3 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 5.2 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Accrington ST vs Bolton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Accrington ST and Bolton expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Accrington ST and 1.34 for Bolton, a combined total of 3.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Accrington ST vs Bolton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Accrington ST come into this having played 21 games, going 8W 3D 10L for 1.29 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-W-L. The sample for Accrington ST is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Bolton sit at 1.24 PPG from 21 outings (7W 5D 9L), a run that reads W-L-W-D-L across their last five. The sample for Bolton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.29 PPG for Accrington ST against 1.24 for Bolton. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Accrington ST's home form reads 5W 1D 4L across 10 games on their own ground, a 1.60 PPG return.
Away from home, Bolton have taken 0.90 points per game from 10 outings (3W 0D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Accrington ST come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Accrington ST are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game recently; Bolton are on 1.38 scored and 1.52 conceded.
Last 21 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Accrington ST
Blended
Bolton
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Accrington ST and Bolton in coming into this match?
Accrington ST have gone 8W 3D 10L in their last 21 games (1.29 PPG), while Bolton have gone 7W 5D 9L in their last 21 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Accrington ST at home or Bolton away?
Accrington ST's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Accrington ST at home: 1.60 PPG; Bolton away: 0.90 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Accrington ST have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Bolton — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Accrington ST
0
Draws
2
Bolton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Accrington ST and Bolton?
From 4 meetings on record, Accrington ST have won 2, Bolton have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Accrington ST and Bolton last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2023, when Bolton 0-1 Accrington ST.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Accrington ST are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Bolton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Accrington ST 70%, Bolton 20% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 70% (Accrington ST) and 40% (Bolton). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bolton in 70%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Accrington ST home games / Bolton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Accrington ST play Bolton?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 70% of Accrington ST's recent matches and 20% of Bolton's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Accrington ST vs Bolton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Accrington ST's matches and 40% of Bolton's.
Do Accrington ST and Bolton tend to score early?
Accrington ST have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Bolton in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Accrington ST edge out Bolton 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Accrington ST beat Bolton 1-0 at Wham Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Accrington ST 1.69 xG and Bolton 1.34 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Bolton landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Accrington ST attack 1.13 / defence 1.49 against Bolton attack 0.69 / defence 1.27, drawn from 21/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Accrington ST 45% | Draw 25% | Bolton 30%, with Accrington ST to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Accrington ST 62%, Bolton 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Accrington ST's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Bolton's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 48% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Accrington ST 1.29 PPG, Bolton 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Accrington ST win broke the near-deadlock. Accrington ST (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line. Bolton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.