West Brom 0-0 Nottingham Forest – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates West Brom at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this West Brom vs Nottingham Forest fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Championship clash, Regular Season - 20 as West Brom welcome Nottingham Forest to The Hawthorns. Kick-off is set for Friday 26 November 2021 at 20:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Championship games this season, West Brom have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L W D L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for West Brom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at The Hawthorns, West Brom have gone 6W 3D 0L this season (9 games, 2.33 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.78 goals scored and 0.56 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 9 home games (56%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at The Hawthorns. Their home PPG of 2.33 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — West Brom are significantly better at The Hawthorns than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Nottingham Forest stand at 5W 4D 1L from 10 Championship matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D D W D D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Nottingham Forest, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Nottingham Forest have gone 4W 3D 2L from 9 away fixtures this term (1.67 PPG). Away from home they average 1.56 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Nottingham Forest's 1.90 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of West Brom's 1.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Trading Patterns
West Brom in-play and half-time data (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Nottingham Forest in-play and half-time data (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 26% of cases; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — West Brom 42% versus Nottingham Forest 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (West Brom 47% | Nottingham Forest 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects West Brom 1.19 xG and Nottingham Forest 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: West Brom attack 1.141 / defence 0.885 | Nottingham Forest attack 1.093 / defence 1.001. League average goals — home 1.042 / away 1.071. Data: 19 West Brom games / 19 Nottingham Forest games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: West Brom 38% | Draw 32% | Nottingham Forest 30%. Fair-value odds: West Brom 2.63 | Draw 3.12 | Nottingham Forest 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is West Brom at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Nottingham Forest (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on West Brom offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.23 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates are neutral: West Brom 44% | Nottingham Forest 67%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: West Brom vs Nottingham Forest | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: The Hawthorns • Kick-off: Friday 26 Nov 2021, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: West Brom 38% | Draw 32% | Nottingham Forest 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 47% | xG West Brom 1.19 / Nottingham Forest 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: West Brom attack 1.141 / def 0.885 | Nottingham Forest attack 1.093 / def 1.001 | league avg home 1.042 / away 1.071 • Poisson stance: West Brom (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
West Brom xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Nottingham Forest xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does West Brom vs Nottingham Forest kick off?
West Brom vs Nottingham Forest kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 26 November 2021 at The Hawthorns.
What was the final score in West Brom vs Nottingham Forest?
West Brom 0 - 0 Nottingham Forest.
Where is West Brom vs Nottingham Forest being played?
The match is being played at The Hawthorns.
What competition is West Brom vs Nottingham Forest part of?
West Brom vs Nottingham Forest is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win West Brom vs Nottingham Forest?
Our statistical model gives West Brom a 38% chance of winning, Nottingham Forest a 30% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making West Brom the favourite.
Will both teams score in West Brom vs Nottingham Forest?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both West Brom and Nottingham Forest will score (BTTS).
Will West Brom vs Nottingham Forest have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between West Brom and Nottingham Forest?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are West Brom and Nottingham Forest in?
West Brom (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-D-L-D. Nottingham Forest (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
West Brom's attacking strength (1.14x league average) is weighed against Nottingham Forest's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.19. The same calculation in reverse, Nottingham Forest's attack versus West Brom's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 19/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.5%), 1-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
West Brom Win
38%
2.66
32%
3.08
30%
3.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
West Brom xG
Total xG
2.23
1.04
Nottingham Forest xG
2.66
38%
Home win
3.08
32%
Draw
3.34
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
35%
2.82
30%
3.28
Win to Nil
13%
7.49
9%
10.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.8 | 11.2 | 5.8 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 13.3 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 7.9 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for West Brom vs Nottingham Forest?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are West Brom and Nottingham Forest expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for West Brom and 1.04 for Nottingham Forest, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for West Brom vs Nottingham Forest?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 19 outings, West Brom have picked up 1.74 PPG on a 9W 6D 4L record — L-W-D-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for West Brom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Nottingham Forest's form line: 6W 6D 7L from 19 games, 1.26 PPG, last five D-D-W-D-D. The sample for Nottingham Forest is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, West Brom are the form team by 0.48 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Nottingham Forest.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, West Brom have posted 2.33 PPG from 9 outings (6W 3D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 1.74 PPG overall — West Brom are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Nottingham Forest have gone 4W 3D 2L from 9 away games — 1.67 PPG when travelling. That's actually stronger than their 1.26 PPG overall record — Nottingham Forest travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, West Brom come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
West Brom are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 0.84 conceded per game recently; Nottingham Forest are on 1.26 scored and 1.21 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Nottingham Forest in 63%.
Defensively: West Brom have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 19 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
West Brom
Blended
Nottingham Forest
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are West Brom and Nottingham Forest in coming into this match?
West Brom have gone 9W 6D 4L in their last 19 games (1.74 PPG), while Nottingham Forest have gone 6W 6D 7L in their last 19 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — West Brom at home or Nottingham Forest away?
West Brom's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — West Brom at home: 2.33 PPG; Nottingham Forest away: 1.67 PPG.
Have West Brom or Nottingham Forest been keeping clean sheets recently?
West Brom have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Nottingham Forest in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between West Brom and Nottingham Forest runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
West Brom
1
Draws
1
Nottingham Forest
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between West Brom and Nottingham Forest?
From 2 meetings on record, West Brom have won 0, Nottingham Forest have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did West Brom and Nottingham Forest last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2022, when Nottingham Forest 4-0 West Brom.
Who has won more matches between West Brom and Nottingham Forest?
Nottingham Forest have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
West Brom see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Nottingham Forest are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 44% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — West Brom 44%, Nottingham Forest 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (West Brom) and 44% (Nottingham Forest).
On the defensive side: West Brom keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = West Brom home games / Nottingham Forest away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when West Brom play Nottingham Forest?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 44% of West Brom's games and 67% of Nottingham Forest's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is West Brom vs Nottingham Forest usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of West Brom's recent games and 44% of Nottingham Forest's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do West Brom and Nottingham Forest tend to score early?
West Brom have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Nottingham Forest in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at West Brom's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at The Hawthorns, Regular Season - 20, as West Brom and Nottingham Forest drew 0-0 in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting West Brom 1.19 xG and Nottingham Forest 1.04 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. West Brom fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Nottingham Forest landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of West Brom attack 1.14 / defence 0.89 against Nottingham Forest attack 1.09 / defence 1.00, drawn from 19/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it West Brom 38% | Draw 32% | Nottingham Forest 30%, with West Brom to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (West Brom 47%, Nottingham Forest 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
West Brom's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Nottingham Forest's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, West Brom arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 1.26. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. West Brom (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.78 scoring average — below par going forward. Nottingham Forest (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.56 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.89 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.