West Brom 1-1 Middlesbrough – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates West Brom at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this West Brom vs Middlesbrough fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Middlesbrough make the trip to The Hawthorns to face West Brom in Championship, Regular Season - 17. The match kicks off on Saturday 6 November 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
West Brom's overall Championship record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W L W L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for West Brom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
West Brom's home record at The Hawthorns: 6W 2D 0L from 8 Championship appearances (2.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.88 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 8 home games (62%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at The Hawthorns. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — West Brom are significantly better at The Hawthorns than their overall form suggests.
Middlesbrough (all games): 5W 0D 5L across 10 Championship outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: W W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Middlesbrough, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Championship this season, Middlesbrough have posted 2W 2D 4L from 8 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.75 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 8 away games (38%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.70 PPG for West Brom against 1.50 for Middlesbrough. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading & In-Play
West Brom — key trading statistics (16 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Middlesbrough — key trading statistics (16 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 12% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — West Brom 44% versus Middlesbrough 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (West Brom 56% | Middlesbrough 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects West Brom 1.48 xG and Middlesbrough 0.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: West Brom attack 1.171 / defence 0.804 | Middlesbrough attack 0.686 / defence 1.188. League average goals — home 1.065 / away 1.140. Data: 16 West Brom games / 16 Middlesbrough games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: West Brom 58% | Draw 27% | Middlesbrough 15%. Fair-value odds: West Brom 1.72 | Draw 3.70 | Middlesbrough 6.67. The model has a clear lean to West Brom (58%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is West Brom at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.11 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 36%. Form rates corroborate: West Brom 38% | Middlesbrough 25% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: West Brom vs Middlesbrough | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: The Hawthorns • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Nov 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: West Brom 58% | Draw 27% | Middlesbrough 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 36% | xG West Brom 1.48 / Middlesbrough 0.63 • Poisson strength factors: West Brom attack 1.171 / def 0.804 | Middlesbrough attack 0.686 / def 1.188 | league avg home 1.065 / away 1.140 • Poisson stance: West Brom (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
West Brom xG
Expected Goals
0.63
Middlesbrough xG
36%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does West Brom vs Middlesbrough kick off?
West Brom vs Middlesbrough kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 6 November 2021 at The Hawthorns.
What was the final score in West Brom vs Middlesbrough?
West Brom 1 - 1 Middlesbrough.
Where is West Brom vs Middlesbrough being played?
The match is being played at The Hawthorns.
What competition is West Brom vs Middlesbrough part of?
West Brom vs Middlesbrough is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win West Brom vs Middlesbrough?
Our statistical model gives West Brom a 58% chance of winning, Middlesbrough a 15% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making West Brom the favourite.
Will both teams score in West Brom vs Middlesbrough?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both West Brom and Middlesbrough will score (BTTS).
Will West Brom vs Middlesbrough have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between West Brom and Middlesbrough?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are West Brom and Middlesbrough in?
West Brom (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-W-L-W. Middlesbrough (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates West Brom's attack at 1.17x the league average against Middlesbrough's defence at 1.19x — combine the two and it projects 1.48 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Middlesbrough's attack (0.69x) against West Brom's defence (0.80x) — and the away total comes out at 0.63.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.6%), 2-0 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
West Brom Win
58%
1.74
27%
3.69
15%
6.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.3%
Home win
0 – 0
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
West Brom xG
Total xG
2.11
0.63
Middlesbrough xG
1.74
58%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
6.52
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.74
64%
BTTS No
1.57
Clean Sheet
53%
1.88
23%
4.40
Win to Nil
31%
3.26
3%
28.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.1 | 7.6 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.9 | 11.3 | 3.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.3 | 8.4 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.6 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for West Brom vs Middlesbrough?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.5%.
How many goals are West Brom and Middlesbrough expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for West Brom and 0.63 for Middlesbrough, a combined total of 2.11.
How confident is the prediction model for West Brom vs Middlesbrough?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
West Brom come into this having played 16 games, going 9W 4D 3L for 1.94 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-L-W. The sample for West Brom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Middlesbrough sit at 1.31 PPG from 16 outings (6W 3D 7L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Middlesbrough is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
West Brom carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.63 PPG clear of Middlesbrough — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
West Brom's home form reads 6W 2D 0L across 8 games on their own ground, a 2.50 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.94 PPG overall — West Brom are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Middlesbrough have taken 1.00 points per game from 8 outings (2W 2D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, West Brom come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
West Brom are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game recently; Middlesbrough are on 1.12 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Defensively: West Brom have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games; Middlesbrough in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 16 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
West Brom
Blended
Middlesbrough
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are West Brom and Middlesbrough in coming into this match?
West Brom have gone 9W 4D 3L in their last 16 games (1.94 PPG), while Middlesbrough have gone 6W 3D 7L in their last 16 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — West Brom at home or Middlesbrough away?
West Brom's home record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — West Brom at home: 2.50 PPG; Middlesbrough away: 1.00 PPG.
Have West Brom or Middlesbrough been keeping clean sheets recently?
West Brom have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Middlesbrough in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 16 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Middlesbrough have taken the last 5 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, West Brom have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Middlesbrough — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
West Brom
2
Draws
6
Middlesbrough
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between West Brom and Middlesbrough?
From 10 meetings on record, West Brom have won 2, Middlesbrough have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did West Brom and Middlesbrough last play each other?
They last met on 16 January 2026, when West Brom 2-3 Middlesbrough.
Who has won more matches between West Brom and Middlesbrough?
Middlesbrough have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
West Brom see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Middlesbrough see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 38% (West Brom) and 25% (Middlesbrough) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 50% for West Brom and 12% for Middlesbrough.
On the defensive side: West Brom keep a clean sheet in 62% of their matches; Middlesbrough in 38%; Middlesbrough in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = West Brom home games / Middlesbrough away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when West Brom play Middlesbrough?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of West Brom's recent matches and 25% of Middlesbrough's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is West Brom vs Middlesbrough usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of West Brom's recent games and 12% of Middlesbrough's, pointing to a tighter contest.
West Brom and Middlesbrough share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
West Brom and Middlesbrough finished level at 1-1 at The Hawthorns, Regular Season - 17, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting West Brom 1.48 xG and Middlesbrough 0.63 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of West Brom attack 1.17 / defence 0.80 against Middlesbrough attack 0.69 / defence 1.19, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it West Brom 58% | Draw 27% | Middlesbrough 15%, with West Brom to win its most likely call at 58%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (West Brom 56%, Middlesbrough 25%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
West Brom's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Middlesbrough's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, West Brom arrived the stronger side — 1.94 PPG against 1.31. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. West Brom (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.88 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.