West Brom 0-0 Ipswich – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates West Brom at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this West Brom vs Ipswich fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Championship clash, Regular Season - 45 as West Brom welcome Ipswich to The Hawthorns. Kick-off is set for Saturday 25 April 2026 at 12:30 UTC.
Form Guide
West Brom — All Games: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Championship outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: D D D W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
West Brom's form when playing at home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 games at The Hawthorns this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.10 lags behind their overall 1.70 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at The Hawthorns this season.
Across all Championship games this season, Ipswich have recorded 5W 4D 1L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W L D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Championship this season, Ipswich have posted 6W 1D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (West Brom) versus 1.90 (Ipswich). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for West Brom, 1 for Ipswich and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Oct 2025, ended 0–1 with Ipswich winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
West Brom in-play and half-time data (81 games, 40 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
Ipswich in-play and half-time data (81 games, 40 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — West Brom 56% versus Ipswich 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (West Brom 41% | Ipswich 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects West Brom 1.51 xG and Ipswich 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: West Brom attack 1.035 / defence 0.948 | Ipswich attack 1.213 / defence 1.138. League average goals — home 1.285 / away 1.186. Ipswich have an above-average attack strength of 1.213 — the away xG of 1.36 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 90 West Brom games / 43 Ipswich games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: West Brom 39% | Draw 28% | Ipswich 33%. Fair-value odds: West Brom 2.56 | Draw 3.57 | Ipswich 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, West Brom are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on West Brom offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.88 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: West Brom 40% | Ipswich 50%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: West Brom vs Ipswich | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 45 | Venue: The Hawthorns • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Apr 2026, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: West Brom 39% | Draw 28% | Ipswich 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 59% | xG West Brom 1.51 / Ipswich 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: West Brom attack 1.035 / def 0.948 | Ipswich attack 1.213 / def 1.138 | league avg home 1.285 / away 1.186 • Poisson stance: West Brom (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
West Brom xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Ipswich xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does West Brom vs Ipswich kick off?
West Brom vs Ipswich kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 25 April 2026 at The Hawthorns.
What was the final score in West Brom vs Ipswich?
West Brom 0 - 0 Ipswich.
Where is West Brom vs Ipswich being played?
The match is being played at The Hawthorns.
What competition is West Brom vs Ipswich part of?
West Brom vs Ipswich is a Regular Season - 45 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win West Brom vs Ipswich?
Our statistical model gives West Brom a 39% chance of winning, Ipswich a 33% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making West Brom the favourite.
Will both teams score in West Brom vs Ipswich?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both West Brom and Ipswich will score (BTTS).
Will West Brom vs Ipswich have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between West Brom and Ipswich?
Record (3 meetings): West Brom 1W | Draws 1 | Ipswich 1W.
What form are West Brom and Ipswich in?
West Brom (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-D-D-W-W. Ipswich (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from West Brom's attack rating (1.03) and Ipswich's defence rating (1.14), the model arrives at 1.51 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Ipswich's attack versus West Brom's defence, projects 1.36 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 90/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
West Brom Win
39%
2.53
28%
3.61
33%
3.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
West Brom xG
Total xG
2.88
1.36
Ipswich xG
2.53
39%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
3.05
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.68
41%
BTTS No
2.47
Clean Sheet
26%
3.91
22%
4.54
Win to Nil
10%
9.91
7%
13.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 7.7 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 11.6 | 7.9 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.8 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.4 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for West Brom vs Ipswich?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are West Brom and Ipswich expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for West Brom and 1.36 for Ipswich, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for West Brom vs Ipswich?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
West Brom come into this having played 81 games, going 23W 30D 28L for 1.22 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-W-W.
On the other side, Ipswich sit at 1.25 PPG from 81 outings (26W 23D 32L), a run that reads W-W-L-D-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: West Brom on 1.22 PPG, Ipswich on 1.25. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
West Brom's home form reads 17W 15D 8L across 40 games on their own ground, a 1.65 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.22 PPG overall — West Brom are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Ipswich have taken 1.18 points per game from 40 outings (12W 11D 17L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, West Brom come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
West Brom are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Ipswich are on 1.37 scored and 1.57 conceded.
Last 81 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
West Brom
Current Season
Ipswich
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are West Brom and Ipswich in coming into this match?
West Brom have gone 23W 30D 28L in their last 81 games (1.22 PPG), while Ipswich have gone 26W 23D 32L in their last 81 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — West Brom at home or Ipswich away?
West Brom's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — West Brom at home: 1.65 PPG; Ipswich away: 1.18 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between West Brom and Ipswich runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
West Brom's record when hosting Ipswich specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
West Brom
2
Draws
1
Ipswich
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between West Brom and Ipswich?
From 4 meetings on record, West Brom have won 1, Ipswich have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did West Brom and Ipswich last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when West Brom 0-0 Ipswich.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
West Brom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
Ipswich are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — West Brom 55%, Ipswich 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (West Brom) and 55% (Ipswich).
On the defensive side: West Brom keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = West Brom home games / Ipswich away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when West Brom play Ipswich?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of West Brom's games and 65% of Ipswich's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is West Brom vs Ipswich usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of West Brom's recent games and 55% of Ipswich's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do West Brom and Ipswich tend to score early?
West Brom have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Ipswich in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at West Brom's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
West Brom and Ipswich finished level at 0-0 at The Hawthorns, Regular Season - 45, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting West Brom 1.51 xG and Ipswich 1.36 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. West Brom fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Ipswich landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of West Brom attack 1.03 / defence 0.95 against Ipswich attack 1.21 / defence 1.14, drawn from 90/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it West Brom 39% | Draw 28% | Ipswich 33%, with West Brom to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (West Brom 41%, Ipswich 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
West Brom's trading profile (81 games, 40 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Ipswich's trading profile (81 games, 40 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — West Brom 1.22 PPG, Ipswich 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. West Brom (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.48 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line. Ipswich (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.42 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.65 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.