West Brom 1-1 Hull City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates West Brom at 47% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this West Brom vs Hull City encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
West Brom and Hull City meet at The Hawthorns in Championship, Regular Season - 38. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 15 March 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
West Brom's overall Championship record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: D W D W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
West Brom at The Hawthorns this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — West Brom are significantly better at The Hawthorns than their overall form suggests.
Hull City have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Hull City away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
The head-to-head record favours West Brom, who have won 5 of the last 7 meetings against Hull City — a 1D 1W return for the visitors.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 7 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 10 Nov 2024, ended 2–1 with West Brom winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both West Brom and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
West Brom — key trading statistics (83 games, 41 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 34% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games).
Hull City — key trading statistics (83 games, 41 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — West Brom 51% versus Hull City 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (West Brom 41% | Hull City 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects West Brom 1.26 xG and Hull City 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: West Brom attack 1.095 / defence 0.837 | Hull City attack 0.923 / defence 0.857. League average goals — home 1.342 / away 1.032. Data: 83 West Brom games / 83 Hull City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: West Brom 47% | Draw 30% | Hull City 23%. Fair-value odds: West Brom 2.13 | Draw 3.33 | Hull City 4.35. West Brom hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.06. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.06 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, West Brom are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on West Brom if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.06 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. Form rates corroborate: West Brom 50% | Hull City 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: West Brom vs Hull City | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: The Hawthorns • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Mar 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: West Brom 47% | Draw 30% | Hull City 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 40% | xG West Brom 1.26 / Hull City 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: West Brom attack 1.095 / def 0.837 | Hull City attack 0.923 / def 0.857 | league avg home 1.342 / away 1.032 • Poisson stance: West Brom (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
West Brom xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Hull City xG
40%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does West Brom vs Hull City kick off?
West Brom vs Hull City kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 15 March 2025 at The Hawthorns.
What was the final score in West Brom vs Hull City?
West Brom 1 - 1 Hull City.
Where is West Brom vs Hull City being played?
The match is being played at The Hawthorns.
What competition is West Brom vs Hull City part of?
West Brom vs Hull City is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win West Brom vs Hull City?
Our statistical model gives West Brom a 47% chance of winning, Hull City a 23% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making West Brom the favourite.
Will both teams score in West Brom vs Hull City?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both West Brom and Hull City will score (BTTS).
Will West Brom vs Hull City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between West Brom and Hull City?
Record (7 meetings): West Brom 5W | Draws 1 | Hull City 1W.
What form are West Brom and Hull City in?
West Brom (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-D-W-D. Hull City (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from West Brom's attack rating (1.09) and Hull City's defence rating (0.86), the model arrives at 1.26 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Hull City's attack (0.92x) against West Brom's defence (0.84x) — and the away total comes out at 0.80.
These ratings are built from 83/83 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.5%), 1-0 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
West Brom Win
47%
2.13
30%
3.36
23%
4.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.1%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
12.8%
Draw
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
West Brom xG
Total xG
2.06
0.80
Hull City xG
2.13
47%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
4.30
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.52
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
45%
2.22
28%
3.53
Win to Nil
21%
4.72
7%
15.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.8 | 10.2 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.1 | 12.8 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.1 | 8.1 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.3 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for West Brom vs Hull City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are West Brom and Hull City expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for West Brom and 0.80 for Hull City, a combined total of 2.06.
How confident is the prediction model for West Brom vs Hull City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
West Brom come into this having played 83 games, going 33W 30D 20L for 1.55 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-W-D.
On the other side, Hull City sit at 1.33 PPG from 83 outings (29W 23D 31L), a run that reads W-L-W-D-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.55 PPG for West Brom against 1.33 for Hull City. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
West Brom's home form reads 23W 12D 6L across 41 games on their own ground, a 1.98 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.55 PPG overall — West Brom are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Hull City have taken 1.41 points per game from 41 outings (17W 7D 17L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, West Brom come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
West Brom are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Hull City are on 1.28 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Defensively: West Brom have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 83 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
West Brom
Current Season
Hull City
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are West Brom and Hull City in coming into this match?
West Brom have gone 33W 30D 20L in their last 83 games (1.55 PPG), while Hull City have gone 29W 23D 31L in their last 83 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — West Brom at home or Hull City away?
West Brom's home record (1.98 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — West Brom at home: 1.98 PPG; Hull City away: 1.41 PPG.
Have West Brom or Hull City been keeping clean sheets recently?
West Brom have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Hull City in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: West Brom won 5-2 on 20 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, West Brom have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Hull City — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
West Brom
2
Draws
2
Hull City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between West Brom and Hull City?
From 10 meetings on record, West Brom have won 6, Hull City have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did West Brom and Hull City last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when West Brom 3-0 Hull City.
Who has won more matches between West Brom and Hull City?
West Brom have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
West Brom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Hull City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — West Brom 34%, Hull City 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (West Brom) and 54% (Hull City).
On the defensive side: West Brom keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; West Brom have failed to score in 27% of games; Hull City in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = West Brom home games / Hull City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when West Brom play Hull City?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 34% of West Brom's recent matches and 54% of Hull City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is West Brom vs Hull City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of West Brom's recent games and 54% of Hull City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do West Brom and Hull City tend to score early?
West Brom have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Hull City in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
West Brom and Hull City share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at The Hawthorns, Regular Season - 38, as West Brom and Hull City drew 1-1 in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting West Brom 1.26 xG and Hull City 0.80 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of West Brom attack 1.09 / defence 0.84 against Hull City attack 0.92 / defence 0.86, drawn from 83/83 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it West Brom 47% | Draw 30% | Hull City 23%, with West Brom to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (West Brom 41%, Hull City 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
West Brom's trading profile (83 games, 41 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Hull City's trading profile (83 games, 41 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — West Brom 1.55 PPG, Hull City 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.