Swansea 0-1 QPR – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Swansea at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Swansea vs QPR encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Swansea.com Stadium plays host to Swansea versus QPR in Championship, Regular Season - 46. Kick-off: Saturday 7 May 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Current Form
Swansea's overall Championship record this term: 4W 5D 1L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: D D D D L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Swansea at Swansea.com Stadium this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
QPR have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: L D W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
QPR's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 1.00 in Swansea's favour (1.70 vs 0.70) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Swansea 0W, QPR 0W, 1D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 0.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Jan 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Swansea half-time and goal-timing data (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
QPR half-time and goal-timing data (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Swansea 49% versus QPR 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Swansea 53% | QPR 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Swansea 1.48 xG and QPR 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Swansea attack 1.053 / defence 1.302 | QPR attack 0.818 / defence 1.293. League average goals — home 1.085 / away 1.151. QPR bring a strong defensive rating of 1.293 — this is suppressing Swansea's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 45 Swansea games / 45 QPR games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Swansea 43% | Draw 26% | QPR 31%. Fair-value odds: Swansea 2.33 | Draw 3.85 | QPR 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Swansea are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Swansea if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.70 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Swansea 70% | QPR 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Swansea vs QPR | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 46 | Venue: Swansea.com Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 7 May 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Swansea 43% | Draw 26% | QPR 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Swansea 1.48 / QPR 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Swansea attack 1.053 / def 1.302 | QPR attack 0.818 / def 1.293 | league avg home 1.085 / away 1.151 • Poisson stance: Swansea (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Swansea xG
Expected Goals
1.23
QPR xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Swansea vs QPR kick off?
Swansea vs QPR kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 7 May 2022 at Swansea.com Stadium.
What was the final score in Swansea vs QPR?
Swansea 0 - 1 QPR.
Where is Swansea vs QPR being played?
The match is being played at Swansea.com Stadium.
What competition is Swansea vs QPR part of?
Swansea vs QPR is a Regular Season - 46 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Swansea vs QPR?
Our statistical model gives Swansea a 43% chance of winning, QPR a 31% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Swansea the favourite.
Will both teams score in Swansea vs QPR?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Swansea and QPR will score (BTTS).
Will Swansea vs QPR have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Swansea and QPR?
Record (1 meetings): Swansea 0W | Draws 1 | QPR 0W.
What form are Swansea and QPR in?
Swansea (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-D-D-L. QPR (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Swansea's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against QPR's defensive record (1.29x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.48. Flip it around — QPR's attack (0.82x) against Swansea's defence (1.30x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Swansea Win
43%
2.33
26%
3.91
31%
3.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Swansea xG
Total xG
2.70
1.23
QPR xG
2.33
43%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
3.18
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
29%
3.41
23%
4.38
Win to Nil
13%
7.93
7%
13.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 8.2 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.1 | 7.4 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.0 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.4 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Swansea vs QPR?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Swansea and QPR expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Swansea and 1.23 for QPR, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Swansea vs QPR?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Swansea's recent record stands at 16W 13D 16L from 45 games, a 1.36 PPG return, with D-D-D-D-L in the last five.
QPR, meanwhile, have gone 18W 9D 18L across 45 games — 1.40 PPG, with L-D-W-L-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.36 PPG for Swansea against 1.40 for QPR. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Swansea have managed 9W 8D 5L from 22 games — 1.59 PPG in front of their own supporters.
QPR's away record stands at 8W 3D 11L across 22 trips, a 1.23 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Swansea are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; QPR are on 1.31 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Defensively: Swansea have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Swansea
Current Season
QPR
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Swansea and QPR in coming into this match?
Swansea have gone 16W 13D 16L in their last 45 games (1.36 PPG), while QPR have gone 18W 9D 18L in their last 45 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Swansea at home or QPR away?
Swansea's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Swansea at home: 1.59 PPG; QPR away: 1.23 PPG.
Have Swansea or QPR been keeping clean sheets recently?
Swansea have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, QPR in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to January 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 21 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Swansea won 3-0 on 26 Dec 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Swansea have gone 2W 0D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against QPR — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Swansea
3
Draws
3
QPR
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Swansea and QPR?
From 10 meetings on record, Swansea have won 4, QPR have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Swansea and QPR last play each other?
They last met on 21 April 2026, when QPR 1-2 Swansea.
Who has won more matches between Swansea and QPR?
Swansea have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Swansea see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
QPR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Swansea 54%, QPR 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Swansea) and 68% (QPR). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Swansea keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Swansea home games / QPR away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Swansea play QPR?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Swansea's games and 68% of QPR's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Swansea vs QPR usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Swansea's matches and 68% of QPR's.
Do Swansea and QPR tend to score early?
Swansea have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, QPR in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as QPR defy the odds to beat Swansea 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
QPR beat Swansea 0-1 at Swansea.com Stadium, Regular Season - 46, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Swansea 1.48 xG and QPR 1.23 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Swansea fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Swansea attack 1.05 / defence 1.30 against QPR attack 0.82 / defence 1.29, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Swansea 43% | Draw 26% | QPR 31%, with Swansea to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual QPR win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Swansea 53%, QPR 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Swansea's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
QPR's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Swansea 1.36 PPG, QPR 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the QPR win broke the near-deadlock. Swansea (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward. QPR (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.55 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.