Swansea 1-5 Fulham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fulham at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Swansea vs Fulham encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Swansea.com Stadium plays host to Swansea versus Fulham in Championship, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off: Tuesday 8 March 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Swansea have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: L W L W W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Swansea at Swansea.com Stadium this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Fulham (all games): 8W 1D 1L across 10 Championship outings this term — 2.50 points per game. Last five: W L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Fulham's away record: 7W 2D 1L from 10 road trips in Championship this season (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Fulham arrive in superior form — a 0.90 PPG advantage (2.50 vs 1.60) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Swansea, 1 for Fulham and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 29 Sep 2021, ended 1–3 with Fulham winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Swansea goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (33 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Fulham goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (33 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; they lead at the break 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Swansea 42% versus Fulham 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Swansea 52% | Fulham 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Swansea 1.05 xG and Fulham 1.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Swansea attack 1.088 / defence 1.104 | Fulham attack 1.459 / defence 0.908. League average goals — home 1.065 / away 1.070. Fulham have an above-average attack strength of 1.459 — the away xG of 1.72 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 33 Swansea games / 34 Fulham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Swansea 23% | Draw 24% | Fulham 53%. Fair-value odds: Swansea 4.35 | Draw 4.17 | Fulham 1.89. Fulham hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Fulham as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fulham if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.78 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Swansea 60% | Fulham 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Swansea vs Fulham | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Swansea.com Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 8 Mar 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Swansea 23% | Draw 24% | Fulham 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 53% | xG Swansea 1.05 / Fulham 1.72 • Poisson strength factors: Swansea attack 1.088 / def 1.104 | Fulham attack 1.459 / def 0.908 | league avg home 1.065 / away 1.070 • Poisson stance: Fulham (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Swansea xG
Expected Goals
1.72
Fulham xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Swansea vs Fulham kick off?
Swansea vs Fulham kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 8 March 2022 at Swansea.com Stadium.
What was the final score in Swansea vs Fulham?
Swansea 1 - 5 Fulham.
Where is Swansea vs Fulham being played?
The match is being played at Swansea.com Stadium.
What competition is Swansea vs Fulham part of?
Swansea vs Fulham is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Swansea vs Fulham?
Our statistical model gives Swansea a 23% chance of winning, Fulham a 53% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Fulham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Swansea vs Fulham?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Swansea and Fulham will score (BTTS).
Will Swansea vs Fulham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Swansea and Fulham?
Record (1 meetings): Swansea 0W | Draws 0 | Fulham 1W.
What form are Swansea and Fulham in?
Swansea (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-W-W. Fulham (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Swansea's attacking strength (1.09x league average) is weighed against Fulham's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.05. Flip it around — Fulham's attack (1.46x) against Swansea's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.72.
These ratings are built from 33/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fulham Win
23%
4.33
24%
4.20
53%
1.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Swansea xG
Total xG
2.78
1.72
Fulham xG
4.33
23%
Home win
4.20
24%
Draw
1.88
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
18%
5.61
35%
2.86
Win to Nil
4%
24.30
19%
5.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 10.7 | 9.3 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 11.3 | 9.7 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 5.9 | 5.1 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Swansea vs Fulham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Swansea and Fulham expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Swansea and 1.72 for Fulham, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Swansea vs Fulham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 33 outings, Swansea have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 12W 8D 13L record — L-W-L-W-W across the most recent five.
Fulham's form line: 22W 6D 5L from 33 games, 2.18 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-W.
Put side by side, Fulham are the form team by 0.85 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Swansea.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Swansea have posted 1.80 PPG from 15 outings (8W 3D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.33 PPG overall — Swansea are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Fulham have gone 10W 3D 2L from 15 away games — 2.20 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fulham come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Swansea are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Fulham are on 2.52 scored and 0.85 conceded.
Defensively: Swansea have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games; Fulham in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 33 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Swansea
Current Season
Fulham
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Swansea and Fulham in coming into this match?
Swansea have gone 12W 8D 13L in their last 33 games (1.33 PPG), while Fulham have gone 22W 6D 5L in their last 33 (2.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Swansea at home or Fulham away?
Fulham's away record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Swansea at home: 1.80 PPG; Fulham away: 2.20 PPG.
Have Swansea or Fulham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Swansea have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Fulham in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Swansea
0
Draws
2
Fulham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Swansea and Fulham?
From 2 meetings on record, Swansea have won 0, Fulham have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Swansea and Fulham last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2022, when Swansea 1-5 Fulham.
Who has won more matches between Swansea and Fulham?
Fulham have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Swansea are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Fulham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 73% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Swansea 47%, Fulham 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Swansea) and 53% (Fulham).
On the defensive side: Swansea keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Fulham in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Swansea home games / Fulham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Swansea play Fulham?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Swansea's recent matches and 53% of Fulham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Swansea vs Fulham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Swansea's recent games and 53% of Fulham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Swansea and Fulham tend to score early?
Swansea have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Fulham in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Fulham run riot with a 1-5 hammering of Swansea.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fulham beat Swansea 1-5 at Swansea.com Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Swansea 1.05 xG and Fulham 1.72 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 1-5 for 6 actual goals. Fulham outscored their 1.72 projection by 3.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Swansea attack 1.09 / defence 1.10 against Fulham attack 1.46 / defence 0.91, drawn from 33/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Swansea 23% | Draw 24% | Fulham 53%, with Fulham to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Swansea 52%, Fulham 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Swansea's trading profile (33 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Fulham's trading profile (33 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Fulham arrived the stronger side — 2.18 PPG against 1.33. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Swansea (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Fulham (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.60 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.