Swansea vs Derby – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Swansea (53%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Swansea face Derby.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Championship encounter, Regular Season - 43 sees Derby travel to Swansea.com Stadium to take on Swansea. The game is scheduled for Saturday 17 April 2027, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Swansea stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Championship matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Swansea, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Swansea's home record at Swansea.com Stadium: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Championship appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.50 lags behind their overall 2.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Swansea.com Stadium this season.
Derby — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Championship fixtures this season — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L D D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Derby, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Derby's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Swansea carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.40 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 0.60. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 4 wins apiece for Swansea, 2 for Derby and 1 shared spoils from 7 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Aug 2026, ended 3–0 with Swansea winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Swansea in-play tendencies (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Derby in-play tendencies (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Swansea 53% versus Derby 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Swansea 51% | Derby 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Swansea 1.51 xG and Derby 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Swansea attack 0.862 / defence 0.703 | Derby attack 0.913 / defence 1.213. League average goals — home 1.447 / away 1.305. Derby bring a strong defensive rating of 1.213 — this is suppressing Swansea's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Swansea's defence rating of 0.703 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 57 Swansea games / 57 Derby games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Swansea 53% | Draw 26% | Derby 21%. Fair-value odds: Swansea 1.89 | Draw 3.85 | Derby 4.76. Swansea hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Swansea as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Swansea offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.35 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. This conflicts with form data: Swansea 50% | Derby 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Swansea vs Derby | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 43 | Venue: Swansea.com Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Apr 2027, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Swansea 53% | Draw 26% | Derby 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 44% | xG Swansea 1.51 / Derby 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Swansea attack 0.862 / def 0.703 | Derby attack 0.913 / def 1.213 | league avg home 1.447 / away 1.305 • Poisson stance: Swansea (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Swansea xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Derby xG
44%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Swansea vs Derby kick off?
Swansea vs Derby is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 17 April 2027 at Swansea.com Stadium.
Where is Swansea vs Derby being played?
The match is being played at Swansea.com Stadium.
What competition is Swansea vs Derby part of?
Swansea vs Derby is a Regular Season - 43 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Swansea vs Derby?
Our statistical model gives Swansea a 53% chance of winning, Derby a 21% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Swansea the favourite.
Will both teams score in Swansea vs Derby?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Swansea and Derby will score (BTTS).
Will Swansea vs Derby have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Swansea and Derby?
Record (7 meetings): Swansea 4W | Draws 1 | Derby 2W.
What form are Swansea and Derby in?
Swansea (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. Derby (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Swansea's attack at 0.86x the league average against Derby's defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 1.51 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Derby's attack versus Swansea's defence, projects 0.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.8%), 0-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Swansea Win
53%
1.88
26%
3.84
21%
4.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Swansea xG
Total xG
2.35
0.84
Derby xG
1.88
53%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
4.81
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.26
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
43%
2.31
22%
4.54
Win to Nil
23%
4.35
5%
21.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.4 | 12.1 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.9 | 9.1 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.5 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Swansea vs Derby?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Swansea and Derby expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Swansea and 0.84 for Derby, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Swansea vs Derby?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 57 outings, Swansea have picked up 1.53 PPG on a 25W 12D 20L record — W-W-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Swansea is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Derby's form line: 21W 12D 24L from 57 games, 1.32 PPG, last five L-D-D-L-L. The sample for Derby is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Swansea on 1.53 PPG, Derby on 1.32. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Swansea have posted 1.68 PPG from 28 outings (13W 8D 7L).
On the road, Derby have gone 11W 4D 13L from 28 away games — 1.32 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Swansea are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Derby are on 1.33 scored and 1.39 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Derby in 63%.
Last 57 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Swansea
Blended
Derby
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Swansea and Derby in coming into this match?
Swansea have gone 25W 12D 20L in their last 57 games (1.53 PPG), while Derby have gone 21W 12D 24L in their last 57 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Swansea at home or Derby away?
Swansea's home record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Swansea at home: 1.68 PPG; Derby away: 1.32 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Swansea and Derby runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. The two were last together as recently as 29 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Aug 2026, when Swansea won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Swansea's record when hosting Derby specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
4
Swansea
1
Draws
2
Derby
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Swansea and Derby?
From 7 meetings on record, Swansea have won 4, Derby have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Swansea and Derby last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2026, when Derby 0-3 Swansea.
Who has won more matches between Swansea and Derby?
Swansea have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Swansea are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Swansea 57%, Derby 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Swansea) and 64% (Derby). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Swansea keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Swansea home games / Derby away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Swansea play Derby?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Swansea's games and 64% of Derby's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Swansea vs Derby usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Swansea's matches and 64% of Derby's.
Do Swansea and Derby tend to score early?
Swansea have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Derby in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.