Swansea 0-3 Blackburn – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Swansea at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Swansea vs Blackburn fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Championship encounter, Regular Season - 2 sees Blackburn travel to Swansea.com Stadium to take on Swansea. The game is scheduled for Saturday 6 August 2022, 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Championship games this season, Swansea have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: D D L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Swansea have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Swansea.com Stadium, Swansea have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Blackburn — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Championship fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Blackburn have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Blackburn away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Swansea) versus 1.40 (Blackburn). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Swansea, 1 for Blackburn and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Feb 2022, ended 1–0 with Swansea winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Swansea trading profile (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Blackburn trading profile (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Swansea 49% versus Blackburn 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Swansea 51% | Blackburn 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Swansea 1.23 xG and Blackburn 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Swansea attack 1.025 / defence 1.114 | Blackburn attack 1.046 / defence 0.945. League average goals — home 1.273 / away 0.954. Data: 47 Swansea games / 47 Blackburn games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Swansea 39% | Draw 28% | Blackburn 33%. Fair-value odds: Swansea 2.56 | Draw 3.57 | Blackburn 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Swansea as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Swansea offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.34 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Swansea 70% | Blackburn 40%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (47 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Swansea vs Blackburn | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Swansea.com Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Aug 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Swansea 39% | Draw 28% | Blackburn 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Swansea 1.23 / Blackburn 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Swansea attack 1.025 / def 1.114 | Blackburn attack 1.046 / def 0.945 | league avg home 1.273 / away 0.954 • Poisson stance: Swansea (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Swansea xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Blackburn xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Swansea vs Blackburn kick off?
Swansea vs Blackburn kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 6 August 2022 at Swansea.com Stadium.
What was the final score in Swansea vs Blackburn?
Swansea 0 - 3 Blackburn.
Where is Swansea vs Blackburn being played?
The match is being played at Swansea.com Stadium.
What competition is Swansea vs Blackburn part of?
Swansea vs Blackburn is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Swansea vs Blackburn?
Our statistical model gives Swansea a 39% chance of winning, Blackburn a 33% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Swansea the favourite.
Will both teams score in Swansea vs Blackburn?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Swansea and Blackburn will score (BTTS).
Will Swansea vs Blackburn have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Swansea and Blackburn?
Record (2 meetings): Swansea 1W | Draws 0 | Blackburn 1W.
What form are Swansea and Blackburn in?
Swansea (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-L-L-D. Blackburn (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Swansea's attack at 1.02x the league average against Blackburn's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.23 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Blackburn's attack versus Swansea's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (47/47 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.3%), 1-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Swansea Win
39%
2.57
28%
3.57
33%
3.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Swansea xG
Total xG
2.34
1.11
Blackburn xG
2.57
39%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
3.02
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
33%
3.04
29%
3.43
Win to Nil
13%
7.81
10%
10.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 10.7 | 5.9 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 13.1 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.1 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Swansea vs Blackburn?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Swansea and Blackburn expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Swansea and 1.11 for Blackburn, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Swansea vs Blackburn?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Swansea come into this having played 47 games, going 16W 14D 17L for 1.32 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-L-D. It's still early in the season for Swansea, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Blackburn sit at 1.53 PPG from 47 outings (20W 12D 15L), a run that reads L-W-L-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Blackburn, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Swansea on 1.32 PPG, Blackburn on 1.53. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Swansea's home form reads 9W 8D 6L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.52 PPG return.
Away from home, Blackburn have taken 1.22 points per game from 23 outings (7W 7D 9L).
Goals in Recent Form
Swansea are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Blackburn are on 1.28 scored and 1.06 conceded.
Last 47 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Swansea
Early Season
Blackburn
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Swansea and Blackburn in coming into this match?
Swansea have gone 16W 14D 17L in their last 47 games (1.32 PPG), while Blackburn have gone 20W 12D 15L in their last 47 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Swansea at home or Blackburn away?
Swansea's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Swansea at home: 1.52 PPG; Blackburn away: 1.22 PPG.
Have Swansea or Blackburn been keeping clean sheets recently?
Swansea have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Blackburn in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 20 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Swansea have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Aug 2022, when Blackburn won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Swansea's record when hosting Blackburn specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Swansea
0
Draws
4
Blackburn
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Swansea and Blackburn?
From 10 meetings on record, Swansea have won 6, Blackburn have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Swansea and Blackburn last play each other?
They last met on 20 January 2026, when Swansea 3-1 Blackburn.
Who has won more matches between Swansea and Blackburn?
Swansea have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Swansea see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Blackburn see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Swansea 52%, Blackburn 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Swansea) and 35% (Blackburn).
On the defensive side: Swansea keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Swansea have failed to score in 26% of games; Blackburn in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Swansea home games / Blackburn away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Swansea play Blackburn?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Swansea's recent matches and 48% of Blackburn's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Swansea vs Blackburn usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Swansea's recent games and 35% of Blackburn's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Dominant Blackburn run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Swansea.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Blackburn beat Swansea 0-3 at Swansea.com Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Swansea 1.23 xG and Blackburn 1.11 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Swansea fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Blackburn outscored their 1.11 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Swansea attack 1.02 / defence 1.11 against Blackburn attack 1.05 / defence 0.94, drawn from 47/47 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Swansea 39% | Draw 28% | Blackburn 33%, with Swansea to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Blackburn win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Swansea 51%, Blackburn 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Swansea's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Blackburn's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Swansea 1.32 PPG, Blackburn 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Blackburn win broke the near-deadlock. Swansea (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Blackburn (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.04 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.