Sunderland 2-2 QPR – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sunderland at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sunderland vs QPR encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
QPR make the trip to Stadium of Light to face Sunderland in Championship, Regular Season - 3. The match kicks off on Saturday 13 August 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sunderland have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 6W 4D 0L. Last five: W D W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Sunderland have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sunderland have posted 7W 3D 0L at Stadium of Light — 2.40 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
QPR's overall Championship record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. QPR have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, QPR have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Sunderland. A 1.20 PPG lead over QPR (2.20 vs 1.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading Data
Sunderland goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
QPR goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sunderland 54% versus QPR 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sunderland 54% | QPR 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sunderland 1.07 xG and QPR 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sunderland attack 0.853 / defence 1.119 | QPR attack 0.906 / defence 0.989. League average goals — home 1.271 / away 0.964. Data: 2 Sunderland games / 48 QPR games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Sunderland 37% | Draw 31% | QPR 32%. Fair-value odds: Sunderland 2.70 | Draw 3.23 | QPR 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.05. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.05 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sunderland are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sunderland if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.05 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates are neutral: Sunderland 60% | QPR 40%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sunderland vs QPR | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Stadium of Light • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Aug 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sunderland 37% | Draw 31% | QPR 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 41% | xG Sunderland 1.07 / QPR 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Sunderland attack 0.853 / def 1.119 | QPR attack 0.906 / def 0.989 | league avg home 1.271 / away 0.964 • Poisson stance: Sunderland (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Sunderland xG
Expected Goals
0.98
QPR xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sunderland vs QPR kick off?
Sunderland vs QPR kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 13 August 2022 at Stadium of Light.
What was the final score in Sunderland vs QPR?
Sunderland 2 - 2 QPR.
Where is Sunderland vs QPR being played?
The match is being played at Stadium of Light.
What competition is Sunderland vs QPR part of?
Sunderland vs QPR is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Sunderland vs QPR?
Our statistical model gives Sunderland a 37% chance of winning, QPR a 32% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Sunderland the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sunderland vs QPR?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Sunderland and QPR will score (BTTS).
Will Sunderland vs QPR have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sunderland and QPR?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sunderland and QPR in?
Sunderland (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-D-W. QPR (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Sunderland's attack rating (0.85) and QPR's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.07 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — QPR's attack (0.91x) against Sunderland's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
The sample (2/48 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.6%), 1-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sunderland Win
37%
2.71
31%
3.21
32%
3.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
12.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Sunderland xG
Total xG
2.05
0.98
QPR xG
2.71
37%
Home win
3.21
31%
Draw
3.13
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.42
59%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
38%
2.66
34%
2.92
Win to Nil
14%
7.20
11%
9.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.9 | 12.6 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.8 | 13.5 | 6.6 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 7.2 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sunderland vs QPR?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Sunderland and QPR expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Sunderland and 0.98 for QPR, a combined total of 2.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Sunderland vs QPR?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sunderland come into this having played 48 games, going 25W 14D 9L for 1.85 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-D-W. It's still early in the season for Sunderland, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, QPR sit at 1.44 PPG from 48 outings (20W 9D 19L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for QPR, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Sunderland carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.41 PPG clear of QPR — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Sunderland's home form reads 16W 4D 4L across 24 games on their own ground, a 2.17 PPG return.
Away from home, QPR have taken 1.25 points per game from 24 outings (9W 3D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sunderland come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sunderland are averaging 1.73 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; QPR are on 1.31 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Defensively: Sunderland have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sunderland
Early Season
QPR
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sunderland and QPR in coming into this match?
Sunderland have gone 25W 14D 9L in their last 48 games (1.85 PPG), while QPR have gone 20W 9D 19L in their last 48 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sunderland at home or QPR away?
Sunderland's home record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sunderland at home: 2.17 PPG; QPR away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Sunderland or QPR been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sunderland have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, QPR in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 May 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sunderland won 0-3 on 14 Feb 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sunderland have gone 0W 2D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against QPR — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Sunderland
3
Draws
1
QPR
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sunderland and QPR?
From 6 meetings on record, Sunderland have won 2, QPR have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sunderland and QPR last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2025, when Sunderland 0-1 QPR.
Who has won more matches between Sunderland and QPR?
Sunderland have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sunderland are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
QPR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sunderland 54%, QPR 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Sunderland) and 62% (QPR). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 21% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sunderland keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sunderland home games / QPR away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sunderland play QPR?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Sunderland's games and 62% of QPR's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sunderland vs QPR usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Sunderland's matches and 62% of QPR's.
Do Sunderland and QPR tend to score early?
Sunderland have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, QPR in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sunderland and QPR share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadium of Light, Regular Season - 3, as Sunderland and QPR drew 2-2 in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sunderland 1.07 xG and QPR 0.98 xG, a combined 2.05. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Sunderland beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. QPR outscored their 0.98 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sunderland attack 0.85 / defence 1.12 against QPR attack 0.91 / defence 0.99, drawn from 2/48 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Sunderland 37% | Draw 31% | QPR 32%, with Sunderland to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sunderland 54%, QPR 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sunderland's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
QPR's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Sunderland arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 1.44. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Sunderland (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.79 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.