Sunderland 4-4 Hull City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hull City at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sunderland vs Hull City fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadium of Light plays host to Sunderland versus Hull City in Championship, Regular Season - 40. Kick-off: Friday 7 April 2023 at 17:30 UTC.
Current Form
Sunderland's overall Championship record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L W L D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Sunderland at Stadium of Light this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Hull City (all games): 2W 5D 3L across 10 Championship outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: W D L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Hull City's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Sunderland 0W, Hull City 0W, 1D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Dec 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Sunderland half-time and goal-timing data (85 games, 42 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Hull City half-time and goal-timing data (85 games, 42 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sunderland 55% versus Hull City 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sunderland 53% | Hull City 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sunderland 1.13 xG and Hull City 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sunderland attack 0.930 / defence 1.317 | Hull City attack 0.930 / defence 0.987. League average goals — home 1.235 / away 1.071. Data: 39 Sunderland games / 85 Hull City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sunderland 31% | Draw 29% | Hull City 40%. Fair-value odds: Sunderland 3.23 | Draw 3.45 | Hull City 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Hull City as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hull City if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.45 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sunderland 70% | Hull City 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sunderland vs Hull City | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 40 | Venue: Stadium of Light • Kick-off: Friday 7 Apr 2023, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sunderland 31% | Draw 29% | Hull City 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG Sunderland 1.13 / Hull City 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Sunderland attack 0.930 / def 1.317 | Hull City attack 0.930 / def 0.987 | league avg home 1.235 / away 1.071 • Poisson stance: Hull City (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Sunderland xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Hull City xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sunderland vs Hull City kick off?
Sunderland vs Hull City kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 7 April 2023 at Stadium of Light.
What was the final score in Sunderland vs Hull City?
Sunderland 4 - 4 Hull City.
Where is Sunderland vs Hull City being played?
The match is being played at Stadium of Light.
What competition is Sunderland vs Hull City part of?
Sunderland vs Hull City is a Regular Season - 40 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Sunderland vs Hull City?
Our statistical model gives Sunderland a 31% chance of winning, Hull City a 40% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Hull City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sunderland vs Hull City?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Sunderland and Hull City will score (BTTS).
Will Sunderland vs Hull City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sunderland and Hull City?
Record (1 meetings): Sunderland 0W | Draws 1 | Hull City 0W.
What form are Sunderland and Hull City in?
Sunderland (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-D-D. Hull City (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Sunderland's attack at 0.93x the league average against Hull City's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.13 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Hull City's attack (0.93x) against Sunderland's defence (1.32x) — and the away total comes out at 1.31.
These ratings are built from 39/85 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.3%), 0-1 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hull City Win
31%
3.21
29%
3.44
40%
2.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.4%
Away win
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Sunderland xG
Total xG
2.45
1.31
Hull City xG
3.21
31%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
2.51
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
27%
3.71
32%
3.10
Win to Nil
8%
11.91
13%
7.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 11.4 | 7.5 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.9 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 7.3 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sunderland vs Hull City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Sunderland and Hull City expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Sunderland and 1.31 for Hull City, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Sunderland vs Hull City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sunderland's recent record stands at 38W 25D 22L from 85 games, a 1.64 PPG return, with L-W-L-D-D in the last five.
Hull City, meanwhile, have gone 26W 21D 38L across 85 games — 1.16 PPG, with W-D-L-D-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sunderland by 0.48 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Hull City heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Sunderland have managed 22W 9D 11L from 42 games — 1.79 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Hull City's away record stands at 12W 12D 18L across 42 trips, a 1.14 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sunderland come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sunderland are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Hull City are on 0.99 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Defensively: Sunderland have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 85 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sunderland
Current Season
Hull City
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sunderland and Hull City in coming into this match?
Sunderland have gone 38W 25D 22L in their last 85 games (1.64 PPG), while Hull City have gone 26W 21D 38L in their last 85 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sunderland at home or Hull City away?
Sunderland's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sunderland at home: 1.79 PPG; Hull City away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Sunderland or Hull City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sunderland have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Hull City in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since December 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 February 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sunderland have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Hull City — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Sunderland
2
Draws
2
Hull City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sunderland and Hull City?
From 6 meetings on record, Sunderland have won 2, Hull City have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sunderland and Hull City last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2025, when Sunderland 0-1 Hull City.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sunderland see a goal before the break in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Hull City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sunderland 55%, Hull City 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Sunderland) and 33% (Hull City).
On the defensive side: Sunderland keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Hull City in 33%; Hull City in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sunderland home games / Hull City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sunderland play Hull City?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Sunderland's recent matches and 38% of Hull City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sunderland vs Hull City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Sunderland's recent games and 33% of Hull City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sunderland and Hull City tend to score early?
Sunderland have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Hull City in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sunderland and Hull City share the spoils in a 4-4 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadium of Light, Regular Season - 40, as Sunderland and Hull City drew 4-4 in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sunderland 1.13 xG and Hull City 1.31 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 4-4 for 8 actual goals. Sunderland beat their projection by 2.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Hull City outscored their 1.31 projection by 2.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sunderland attack 0.93 / defence 1.32 against Hull City attack 0.93 / defence 0.99, drawn from 39/85 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sunderland 31% | Draw 29% | Hull City 40%, with Hull City to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sunderland 53%, Hull City 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sunderland's trading profile (85 games, 42 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Hull City's trading profile (85 games, 42 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Sunderland arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 1.16. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Sunderland (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.74 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.02 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Hull City (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.98 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.26 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.