Stoke City 0-0 Hull City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hull City at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stoke City vs Hull City fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Stoke City host Hull City at bet365 Stadium in Championship, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 11 February 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Stoke City stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Championship matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at bet365 Stadium, Stoke City have gone 3W 1D 6L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Hull City — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Championship fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Hull City have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Hull City are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The fixture history tells a clear story: Stoke City have dominated this rivalry, winning 3 of 3 past contests while Hull City have managed just 0 wins.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Sep 2022, ended 3–0 with Stoke City winning.
The historical record gives Stoke City a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 3 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Data
Stoke City trading profile (75 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games).
Hull City trading profile (75 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stoke City 48% versus Hull City 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stoke City 45% | Hull City 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stoke City 1.22 xG and Hull City 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stoke City attack 1.009 / defence 1.019 | Hull City attack 1.076 / defence 0.964. League average goals — home 1.254 / away 1.158. Data: 75 Stoke City games / 76 Hull City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stoke City 35% | Draw 27% | Hull City 38%. Fair-value odds: Stoke City 2.86 | Draw 3.70 | Hull City 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Stoke City dominate the H2H record, yet Hull City are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
Poisson rates Hull City as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hull City offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.49 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Stoke City 30% | Hull City 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stoke City vs Hull City | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: bet365 Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Feb 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stoke City 35% | Draw 27% | Hull City 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Stoke City 1.22 / Hull City 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Stoke City attack 1.009 / def 1.019 | Hull City attack 1.076 / def 0.964 | league avg home 1.254 / away 1.158 • Poisson stance: Hull City (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Stoke City xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Hull City xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stoke City vs Hull City kick off?
Stoke City vs Hull City kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 11 February 2023 at bet365 Stadium.
What was the final score in Stoke City vs Hull City?
Stoke City 0 - 0 Hull City.
Where is Stoke City vs Hull City being played?
The match is being played at bet365 Stadium.
What competition is Stoke City vs Hull City part of?
Stoke City vs Hull City is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Stoke City vs Hull City?
Our statistical model gives Stoke City a 35% chance of winning, Hull City a 38% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Hull City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stoke City vs Hull City?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Stoke City and Hull City will score (BTTS).
Will Stoke City vs Hull City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stoke City and Hull City?
Record (3 meetings): Stoke City 3W | Draws 0 | Hull City 0W.
What form are Stoke City and Hull City in?
Stoke City (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Hull City (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Stoke City's attack rating (1.01) and Hull City's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.22 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Hull City's attack versus Stoke City's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 75/76 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.0%), 0-1 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hull City Win
35%
2.84
27%
3.66
38%
2.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Stoke City xG
Total xG
2.49
1.27
Hull City xG
2.84
35%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
2.67
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
28%
3.56
30%
3.39
Win to Nil
10%
10.12
11%
9.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 10.5 | 6.7 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.8 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 7.8 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stoke City vs Hull City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Stoke City and Hull City expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Stoke City and 1.27 for Hull City, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Stoke City vs Hull City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 75 outings, Stoke City have picked up 1.27 PPG on a 26W 17D 32L record — L-L-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Hull City's form line: 24W 16D 35L from 75 games, 1.17 PPG, last five W-D-L-W-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Stoke City on 1.27 PPG, Hull City on 1.17. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Stoke City have posted 1.31 PPG from 36 outings (13W 8D 15L).
On the road, Hull City have gone 11W 9D 16L from 36 away games — 1.17 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Stoke City are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Hull City are on 0.99 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Last 75 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stoke City
Current Season
Hull City
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stoke City and Hull City in coming into this match?
Stoke City have gone 26W 17D 32L in their last 75 games (1.27 PPG), while Hull City have gone 24W 16D 35L in their last 75 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stoke City at home or Hull City away?
Stoke City's home record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stoke City at home: 1.31 PPG; Hull City away: 1.17 PPG.
Have Stoke City or Hull City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stoke City have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Hull City in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Stoke City and Hull City runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 1 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Sep 2022, when Stoke City won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Stoke City's record when hosting Hull City specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Stoke City
1
Draws
3
Hull City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stoke City and Hull City?
From 10 meetings on record, Stoke City have won 6, Hull City have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Stoke City and Hull City last play each other?
They last met on 1 January 2026, when Hull City 0-1 Stoke City.
Who has won more matches between Stoke City and Hull City?
Stoke City have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Stoke City see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Hull City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stoke City 39%, Hull City 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Stoke City) and 33% (Hull City).
On the defensive side: Stoke City keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Hull City in 36%; Stoke City have failed to score in 31% of games; Hull City in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stoke City home games / Hull City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stoke City play Hull City?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Stoke City's recent matches and 33% of Hull City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stoke City vs Hull City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Stoke City's recent games and 33% of Hull City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stoke City and Hull City tend to score early?
Stoke City have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Hull City in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Stoke City's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at bet365 Stadium, Regular Season - 31, as Stoke City and Hull City drew 0-0 in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stoke City 1.22 xG and Hull City 1.27 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Stoke City fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Hull City landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stoke City attack 1.01 / defence 1.02 against Hull City attack 1.08 / defence 0.96, drawn from 75/76 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stoke City 35% | Draw 27% | Hull City 38%, with Hull City to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stoke City 45%, Hull City 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stoke City's trading profile (75 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Hull City's trading profile (75 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stoke City 1.27 PPG, Hull City 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Stoke City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line. Hull City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.94 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.28 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.