Sheffield Wednesday 0-2 Burnley – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sheffield Wednesday at 42% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Sheffield Wednesday face Burnley.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Hillsborough plays host to Sheffield Wednesday versus Burnley in Championship (matchday 10). Kick-off: Saturday 19 October 2024 at 16:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Sheffield Wednesday have collected 1.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: D L W D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Sheffield Wednesday's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 4D 2L (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Burnley's record over their last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L (1.80 PPG). Last five: W W D W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Burnley's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Sheffield Wednesday, 1.80 for Burnley — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading
Sheffield Wednesday half-time and goal-timing data (last 47 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Burnley half-time and goal-timing data (last 47 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sheffield Wednesday 36% versus Burnley 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sheffield Wednesday 49% | Burnley 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sheffield Wednesday 1.27 xG and Burnley 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sheffield Wednesday attack 1.130 / defence 1.096 | Burnley attack 0.949 / defence 0.753. League average goals — home 1.495 / away 0.945. Burnley bring a tight defence (rating 0.753, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Sheffield Wednesday's projected output down. Data: built from Sheffield Wednesday's last 55 games and Burnley's last 9.
Result probabilities: Sheffield Wednesday 42% | Draw 30% | Burnley 28%. Fair-value odds: Sheffield Wednesday 2.38 | Draw 3.30 | Burnley 3.61. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sheffield Wednesday as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sheffield Wednesday if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.26 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 61% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Sheffield Wednesday 50% (last 10 home games) | Burnley 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sheffield Wednesday vs Burnley | Competition: Championship, matchday 10 | Venue: Hillsborough • Kick-off: Saturday 19 October 2024 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sheffield Wednesday 42% | Draw 30% | Burnley 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% (Under 61%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG Sheffield Wednesday 1.27 / Burnley 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Sheffield Wednesday attack 1.130 / def 1.096 | Burnley attack 0.949 / def 0.753 | league avg home 1.495 / away 0.945 • Poisson stance: Sheffield Wednesday (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Sheffield Wednesday xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Burnley xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sheffield Wednesday vs Burnley FAQs
What time does Sheffield Wednesday vs Burnley kick off?
Sheffield Wednesday vs Burnley kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 19 October 2024 at Hillsborough.
What was the final score in Sheffield Wednesday vs Burnley?
Sheffield Wednesday 0 - 2 Burnley.
Where is Sheffield Wednesday vs Burnley being played?
The match is being played at Hillsborough.
What competition is Sheffield Wednesday vs Burnley part of?
Sheffield Wednesday vs Burnley is a Championship fixture (matchday 10) (England).
Who is favourite to win Sheffield Wednesday vs Burnley?
Our statistical model gives Sheffield Wednesday a 42% chance of winning, Burnley a 28% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Sheffield Wednesday the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sheffield Wednesday vs Burnley?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Sheffield Wednesday and Burnley will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will Sheffield Wednesday vs Burnley have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (61%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Sheffield Wednesday's attacking strength (1.13x league average) is weighed against Burnley's defensive record (0.75x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.27. Flip it around — Burnley's attack (0.95x) against Sheffield Wednesday's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from Sheffield Wednesday's last 55 games and Burnley's last 9 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.2%), 1-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sheffield Wednesday Win
42%
2.38
30%
3.30
28%
3.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Sheffield Wednesday xG
Total xG
2.26
0.98
Burnley xG
2.38
42%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
3.61
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
37%
2.67
28%
3.57
Win to Nil
16%
6.36
8%
12.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 10.3 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 13.1 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 8.3 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sheffield Wednesday vs Burnley Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sheffield Wednesday vs Burnley?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Sheffield Wednesday and Burnley expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Sheffield Wednesday and 0.98 for Burnley, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Sheffield Wednesday vs Burnley?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sheffield Wednesday's recent record stands at 18W 8D 21L from 47 games, a 1.32 PPG return, with D-L-W-D-W in the last five.
Burnley, meanwhile, have gone 10W 12D 25L across 47 games — 0.89 PPG, with W-W-D-W-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sheffield Wednesday by 0.43 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Burnley heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Sheffield Wednesday have managed 10W 7D 6L from their last 23 home games — 1.61 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Burnley's away record stands at 5W 6D 12L across their last 23 away games, a 0.91 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sheffield Wednesday come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sheffield Wednesday are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Burnley are on 1.17 scored and 1.74 conceded.
Last 47 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sheffield Wednesday
Blended
Burnley
Blended
Sheffield Wednesday (Home) vs Burnley (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sheffield Wednesday
Blended
Burnley
Blended
❓ Sheffield Wednesday vs Burnley Form FAQs
What form are Sheffield Wednesday and Burnley in coming into this match?
Sheffield Wednesday have gone 18W 8D 21L in their last 47 games (1.32 PPG), while Burnley have gone 10W 12D 25L in their last 47 (0.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sheffield Wednesday at home or Burnley away?
Sheffield Wednesday's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sheffield Wednesday at home: 1.61 PPG; Burnley away: 0.91 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 2 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2024 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Championship. The most recent in our data was on 21 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Sheffield Wednesday
0
Draws
2
Burnley
Recent Meetings
❓ Sheffield Wednesday vs Burnley H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sheffield Wednesday and Burnley?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Sheffield Wednesday have won 0, Burnley have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sheffield Wednesday and Burnley last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 21 February 2025: Burnley 4-0 Sheffield Wednesday.
Who has won more matches between Sheffield Wednesday and Burnley?
Burnley have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sheffield Wednesday are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Burnley are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 43% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sheffield Wednesday 52%, Burnley 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Sheffield Wednesday) and 56% (Burnley).
On the defensive side: Sheffield Wednesday keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Sheffield Wednesday have failed to score in 26% of games; Burnley in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sheffield Wednesday home games / Burnley away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sheffield Wednesday vs Burnley Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sheffield Wednesday and Burnley matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Sheffield Wednesday's games and 61% of Burnley's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Sheffield Wednesday and Burnley matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Sheffield Wednesday's recent games and 56% of Burnley's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sheffield Wednesday and Burnley matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 74% of Sheffield Wednesday's recent matches and 83% of Burnley's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Burnley cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Sheffield Wednesday.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Burnley beat Sheffield Wednesday 0-2 at Hillsborough, Regular Season - 10, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sheffield Wednesday 1.27 xG and Burnley 0.98 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Sheffield Wednesday fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Burnley outscored their 0.98 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sheffield Wednesday attack 1.13 / defence 1.10 against Burnley attack 0.95 / defence 0.75, drawn from 55/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sheffield Wednesday 42% | Draw 30% | Burnley 28%, with Sheffield Wednesday to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Burnley win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sheffield Wednesday 49%, Burnley 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sheffield Wednesday's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Burnley's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Sheffield Wednesday arrived the stronger side — 1.32 PPG against 0.89. Form was overturned, with Burnley winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Sheffield Wednesday (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Burnley (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.61 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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