QPR 2-1 Preston – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates QPR at 39% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this QPR vs Preston encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
QPR host Preston at MATRADE Loftus Road in Championship, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 21 December 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Championship games this season, QPR have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W D W W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for QPR, so this record blends games from this season and last.
QPR's home record at MATRADE Loftus Road: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Championship appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Preston — All Games: 1W 7D 2L from 10 Championship fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Preston, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Championship this season, Preston have posted 1W 5D 4L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — QPR at 1.40 PPG versus Preston's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. QPR register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Preston in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, QPR have won 4, Preston 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Apr 2024, ended 1–0 with QPR winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
QPR in-play and half-time data (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Preston in-play and half-time data (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — QPR 49% versus Preston 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (QPR 42% | Preston 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects QPR 1.31 xG and Preston 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: QPR attack 0.902 / defence 1.156 | Preston attack 0.947 / defence 1.054. League average goals — home 1.378 / away 1.027. Data: 67 QPR games / 67 Preston games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: QPR 39% | Draw 31% | Preston 30%. Fair-value odds: QPR 2.56 | Draw 3.23 | Preston 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates QPR as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on QPR offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.44 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: QPR 70% | Preston 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: QPR vs Preston | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: MATRADE Loftus Road • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Dec 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: QPR 39% | Draw 31% | Preston 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 51% | xG QPR 1.31 / Preston 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: QPR attack 0.902 / def 1.156 | Preston attack 0.947 / def 1.054 | league avg home 1.378 / away 1.027 • Poisson stance: QPR (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
QPR xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Preston xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does QPR vs Preston kick off?
QPR vs Preston kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 21 December 2024 at MATRADE Loftus Road.
What was the final score in QPR vs Preston?
QPR 2 - 1 Preston.
Where is QPR vs Preston being played?
The match is being played at MATRADE Loftus Road.
What competition is QPR vs Preston part of?
QPR vs Preston is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win QPR vs Preston?
Our statistical model gives QPR a 39% chance of winning, Preston a 30% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making QPR the favourite.
Will both teams score in QPR vs Preston?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both QPR and Preston will score (BTTS).
Will QPR vs Preston have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between QPR and Preston?
Record (6 meetings): QPR 4W | Draws 0 | Preston 2W.
What form are QPR and Preston in?
QPR (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-W-D. Preston (all comps): 1W-7D-2L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
QPR's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Preston's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.31. The same calculation in reverse, Preston's attack versus QPR's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 67/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.4%), 1-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
QPR Win
39%
2.57
31%
3.22
30%
3.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
QPR xG
Total xG
2.44
1.12
Preston xG
2.57
39%
Home win
3.22
31%
Draw
3.33
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
32%
3.08
27%
3.71
Win to Nil
13%
7.91
8%
12.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 9.8 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 12.9 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 8.5 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.7 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for QPR vs Preston?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are QPR and Preston expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for QPR and 1.12 for Preston, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for QPR vs Preston?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
QPR's recent record stands at 19W 21D 27L from 67 games, a 1.16 PPG return, with W-D-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for QPR is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Preston, meanwhile, have gone 22W 20D 25L across 67 games — 1.28 PPG, with D-D-D-W-D in their last five. The sample for Preston is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: QPR on 1.16 PPG, Preston on 1.28. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, QPR have managed 9W 11D 13L from 33 games — 1.15 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Preston's away record stands at 8W 10D 15L across 33 trips, a 1.03 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
QPR are averaging 1.01 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Preston are on 1.15 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Last 67 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
QPR
Blended
Preston
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are QPR and Preston in coming into this match?
QPR have gone 19W 21D 27L in their last 67 games (1.16 PPG), while Preston have gone 22W 20D 25L in their last 67 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — QPR at home or Preston away?
QPR's home record (1.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — QPR at home: 1.15 PPG; Preston away: 1.03 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
QPR's record when hosting Preston specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
QPR
2
Draws
2
Preston
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between QPR and Preston?
From 10 meetings on record, QPR have won 6, Preston have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did QPR and Preston last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when Preston 1-1 QPR.
Who has won more matches between QPR and Preston?
QPR have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
QPR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Preston are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — QPR 61%, Preston 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (QPR) and 46% (Preston).
On the defensive side: Preston in 30%; Preston in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = QPR home games / Preston away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when QPR play Preston?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of QPR's recent matches and 42% of Preston's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is QPR vs Preston usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of QPR's recent games and 46% of Preston's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do QPR and Preston tend to score early?
QPR have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Preston in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as QPR edge out Preston 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
QPR beat Preston 2-1 at MATRADE Loftus Road, Regular Season - 22, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting QPR 1.31 xG and Preston 1.12 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of QPR attack 0.90 / defence 1.16 against Preston attack 0.95 / defence 1.05, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it QPR 39% | Draw 31% | Preston 30%, with QPR to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (QPR 42%, Preston 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
QPR's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Preston's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — QPR 1.16 PPG, Preston 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the QPR win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.