QPR 2-2 Norwich – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Norwich at 38% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this QPR vs Norwich encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Norwich travel to MATRADE Loftus Road to take on QPR in Championship (matchday 31). The game is scheduled for Saturday 10 February 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, QPR have gone 2W 3D 5L — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L L W D W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
At home, QPR have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Norwich — last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Norwich's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 road games (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Norwich are 0.80 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 0.90), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, QPR have won 0, Norwich 1, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 25 Nov 2023, ended QPR 0–1 Norwich — a Norwich win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
QPR trading profile (last 76 games, 38 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Norwich trading profile (last 76 games, 38 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; of the 24 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — QPR 47% versus Norwich 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (QPR 47% | Norwich 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects QPR 1.31 xG and Norwich 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: QPR attack 0.840 / defence 1.051 | Norwich attack 1.084 / defence 1.117. League average goals — home 1.401 / away 1.197. Data: built from QPR's last 76 games and Norwich's last 76.
Result probabilities: QPR 36% | Draw 26% | Norwich 38%. Fair-value odds: QPR 2.79 | Draw 3.84 | Norwich 2.62. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Norwich as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Norwich offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.68 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging only 1.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: QPR 50% (last 10 home games) | Norwich 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: QPR vs Norwich | Competition: Championship, matchday 31 | Venue: MATRADE Loftus Road • Kick-off: Saturday 10 February 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: QPR 36% | Draw 26% | Norwich 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG QPR 1.31 / Norwich 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: QPR attack 0.840 / def 1.051 | Norwich attack 1.084 / def 1.117 | league avg home 1.401 / away 1.197 • Poisson stance: Norwich (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
QPR xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Norwich xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ QPR vs Norwich FAQs
What time does QPR vs Norwich kick off?
QPR vs Norwich kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 10 February 2024 at MATRADE Loftus Road.
What was the final score in QPR vs Norwich?
QPR 2 - 2 Norwich.
Where is QPR vs Norwich being played?
The match is being played at MATRADE Loftus Road.
What competition is QPR vs Norwich part of?
QPR vs Norwich is a Championship fixture (matchday 31) (England).
Who is favourite to win QPR vs Norwich?
Our statistical model gives QPR a 36% chance of winning, Norwich a 38% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Norwich the favourite.
Will both teams score in QPR vs Norwich?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both QPR and Norwich will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will QPR vs Norwich have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates QPR's attack at 0.84x the league average against Norwich's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.31 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Norwich's attack versus QPR's defence, projects 1.36 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from QPR's last 76 games and Norwich's last 76 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Norwich Win
36%
2.79
26%
3.84
38%
2.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
QPR xG
Total xG
2.68
1.36
Norwich xG
2.79
36%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
2.62
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
26%
3.91
27%
3.72
Win to Nil
9%
10.92
10%
9.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 9.4 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.3 | 8.4 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.1 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.5 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ QPR vs Norwich Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for QPR vs Norwich?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are QPR and Norwich expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for QPR and 1.36 for Norwich, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for QPR vs Norwich?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
QPR's recent record stands at 20W 18D 38L from 76 games, a 1.03 PPG return, with L-L-W-D-W in the last five.
Norwich, meanwhile, have gone 30W 16D 30L across 76 games — 1.39 PPG, with D-W-W-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: QPR on 1.03 PPG, Norwich on 1.39. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, QPR have managed 9W 9D 20L from their last 38 home games — 0.95 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Norwich's away record stands at 13W 9D 16L across their last 38 away games, a 1.26 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
QPR are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Norwich are on 1.38 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Last 76 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
QPR
Current Season
Norwich
Current Season
QPR (Home) vs Norwich (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
QPR
Current Season
Norwich
Current Season
❓ QPR vs Norwich Form FAQs
What form are QPR and Norwich in coming into this match?
QPR have gone 20W 18D 38L in their last 76 games (1.03 PPG), while Norwich have gone 30W 16D 30L in their last 76 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — QPR at home or Norwich away?
Norwich's away record (1.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — QPR at home: 0.95 PPG; Norwich away: 1.26 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 8 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from November 2022. All of them came in Championship. The most recent was on 1 January 2026, roughly 10 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Norwich have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 7 Dec 2024, when QPR won QPR 3-0 Norwich.
QPR's record when hosting Norwich specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
QPR
4
Draws
3
Norwich
Recent Meetings
❓ QPR vs Norwich H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between QPR and Norwich?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, QPR have won 1, Norwich have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did QPR and Norwich last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 January 2026: QPR 1-2 Norwich.
Who has won more matches between QPR and Norwich?
Norwich have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
QPR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Norwich are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — QPR 50%, Norwich 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (QPR) and 58% (Norwich).
On the defensive side: QPR have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = QPR home games / Norwich away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ QPR vs Norwich Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in QPR and Norwich matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of QPR's games and 63% of Norwich's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are QPR and Norwich matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of QPR's recent games and 58% of Norwich's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do QPR and Norwich matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of QPR's recent matches and 76% of Norwich's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
QPR and Norwich share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at MATRADE Loftus Road, Regular Season - 31, as QPR and Norwich drew 2-2 in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting QPR 1.31 xG and Norwich 1.36 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of QPR attack 0.84 / defence 1.05 against Norwich attack 1.08 / defence 1.12, drawn from 76/76 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it QPR 36% | Draw 26% | Norwich 38%, with Norwich to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (QPR 47%, Norwich 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
QPR's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Norwich's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — QPR 1.03 PPG, Norwich 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. QPR (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.95 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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