Plymouth 2-1 West Brom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours West Brom (43%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Plymouth face West Brom.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Championship encounter, Regular Season - 30 sees West Brom travel to Home Park to take on Plymouth. The game is scheduled for Saturday 1 February 2025, 12:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Plymouth stand at 0W 5D 5L from 10 Championship matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D D L L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Plymouth at Home Park this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Plymouth are significantly better at Home Park than their overall form suggests.
Across all Championship games this season, West Brom have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D D L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Championship this season, West Brom have posted 1W 6D 3L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour West Brom — 1.00 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Plymouth have won 0, West Brom 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.3 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 21 Sep 2024, ended 0–1 with West Brom winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Plymouth trading profile (75 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 37% of games.
West Brom trading profile (75 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Plymouth 51% versus West Brom 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plymouth 55% | West Brom 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plymouth 1.30 xG and West Brom 1.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plymouth attack 0.978 / defence 1.603 | West Brom attack 0.953 / defence 0.963. League average goals — home 1.378 / away 1.037. Data: 75 Plymouth games / 75 West Brom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Plymouth 31% | Draw 26% | West Brom 43%. Fair-value odds: Plymouth 3.23 | Draw 3.85 | West Brom 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates West Brom as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on West Brom offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.88 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: Plymouth 70% | West Brom 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plymouth vs West Brom | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Home Park • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Feb 2025, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plymouth 31% | Draw 26% | West Brom 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 59% | xG Plymouth 1.30 / West Brom 1.58 • Poisson strength factors: Plymouth attack 0.978 / def 1.603 | West Brom attack 0.953 / def 0.963 | league avg home 1.378 / away 1.037 • Poisson stance: West Brom (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Plymouth xG
Expected Goals
1.58
West Brom xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Plymouth vs West Brom kick off?
Plymouth vs West Brom kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 1 February 2025 at Home Park.
What was the final score in Plymouth vs West Brom?
Plymouth 2 - 1 West Brom.
Where is Plymouth vs West Brom being played?
The match is being played at Home Park.
What competition is Plymouth vs West Brom part of?
Plymouth vs West Brom is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Plymouth vs West Brom?
Our statistical model gives Plymouth a 31% chance of winning, West Brom a 43% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making West Brom the favourite.
Will both teams score in Plymouth vs West Brom?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Plymouth and West Brom will score (BTTS).
Will Plymouth vs West Brom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Plymouth and West Brom?
Record (3 meetings): Plymouth 0W | Draws 1 | West Brom 2W.
What form are Plymouth and West Brom in?
Plymouth (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-D-L-L-D. West Brom (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Plymouth's attack at 0.98x the league average against West Brom's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.30 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, West Brom's attack versus Plymouth's defence, projects 1.58 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 75/75 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
West Brom Win
31%
3.27
26%
3.83
43%
2.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Plymouth xG
Total xG
2.88
1.58
West Brom xG
3.27
31%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
2.31
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.71
41%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
21%
4.87
27%
3.66
Win to Nil
6%
15.94
12%
8.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 8.9 | 7.0 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.5 | 9.1 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 7.5 | 5.9 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.2 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Plymouth vs West Brom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Plymouth and West Brom expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Plymouth and 1.58 for West Brom, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Plymouth vs West Brom?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Plymouth's recent record stands at 17W 22D 36L from 75 games, a 0.97 PPG return, with D-D-L-L-D in the last five.
West Brom, meanwhile, have gone 30W 27D 18L across 75 games — 1.56 PPG, with W-D-D-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours West Brom by 0.59 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Plymouth heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Plymouth have managed 14W 11D 12L from 37 games — 1.43 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.97 PPG overall — Plymouth are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
West Brom's away record stands at 10W 14D 13L across 37 trips, a 1.19 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Plymouth are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.76 conceded per game recently; West Brom are on 1.40 scored and 0.95 conceded.
Defensively: West Brom in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 75 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plymouth
Current Season
West Brom
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Plymouth and West Brom in coming into this match?
Plymouth have gone 17W 22D 36L in their last 75 games (0.97 PPG), while West Brom have gone 30W 27D 18L in their last 75 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Plymouth at home or West Brom away?
Plymouth's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Plymouth at home: 1.43 PPG; West Brom away: 1.19 PPG.
Have Plymouth or West Brom been keeping clean sheets recently?
Plymouth have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, West Brom in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Feb 2024, when West Brom won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Plymouth's record when hosting West Brom specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Plymouth
1
Draws
2
West Brom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Plymouth and West Brom?
From 4 meetings on record, Plymouth have won 1, West Brom have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Plymouth and West Brom last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2025, when Plymouth 2-1 West Brom.
Who has won more matches between Plymouth and West Brom?
West Brom have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Plymouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
West Brom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Plymouth 60%, West Brom 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Plymouth) and 54% (West Brom). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plymouth home games / West Brom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Plymouth play West Brom?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Plymouth's games and 62% of West Brom's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Plymouth vs West Brom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Plymouth's matches and 54% of West Brom's.
Do Plymouth and West Brom tend to score early?
Plymouth have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, West Brom in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Plymouth defy the odds to beat West Brom 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plymouth beat West Brom 2-1 at Home Park, Regular Season - 30, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Plymouth 1.30 xG and West Brom 1.58 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plymouth attack 0.98 / defence 1.60 against West Brom attack 0.95 / defence 0.96, drawn from 75/75 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Plymouth 31% | Draw 26% | West Brom 43%, with West Brom to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Plymouth win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plymouth 55%, West Brom 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Plymouth's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
West Brom's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, West Brom arrived the stronger side — 1.56 PPG against 0.97. Form was overturned, with Plymouth winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.