Plymouth 1-3 Swansea – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Plymouth at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Plymouth vs Swansea fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Championship clash, Regular Season - 11 as Plymouth welcome Swansea to Home Park. Kick-off is set for Saturday 7 October 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Plymouth — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Championship outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L L W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Plymouth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Plymouth have posted 7W 0D 3L at Home Park — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Plymouth are significantly better at Home Park than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Swansea stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Championship matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Swansea, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Swansea have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Plymouth) versus 1.20 (Swansea). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Trading Patterns
Plymouth in-play and half-time data (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Swansea in-play and half-time data (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Plymouth 55% versus Swansea 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plymouth 57% | Swansea 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plymouth 1.87 xG and Swansea 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plymouth attack 1.290 / defence 1.162 | Swansea attack 1.044 / defence 1.042. League average goals — home 1.390 / away 1.230. Plymouth carry an above-average attack strength of 1.290 — their λ of 1.87 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 10 Plymouth games / 56 Swansea games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Plymouth 46% | Draw 24% | Swansea 30%. Fair-value odds: Plymouth 2.17 | Draw 4.17 | Swansea 3.33. Plymouth hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.36. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.36 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.87 / 1.49) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Plymouth as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Plymouth offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.36 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 65% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 66%. Form rates are neutral: Plymouth 40% | Swansea 60%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plymouth vs Swansea | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Home Park • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Oct 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plymouth 46% | Draw 24% | Swansea 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 66% | xG Plymouth 1.87 / Swansea 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Plymouth attack 1.290 / def 1.162 | Swansea attack 1.044 / def 1.042 | league avg home 1.390 / away 1.230 • Poisson stance: Plymouth (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.87
Plymouth xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Swansea xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Plymouth vs Swansea kick off?
Plymouth vs Swansea kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 7 October 2023 at Home Park.
What was the final score in Plymouth vs Swansea?
Plymouth 1 - 3 Swansea.
Where is Plymouth vs Swansea being played?
The match is being played at Home Park.
What competition is Plymouth vs Swansea part of?
Plymouth vs Swansea is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Plymouth vs Swansea?
Our statistical model gives Plymouth a 46% chance of winning, Swansea a 30% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Plymouth the favourite.
Will both teams score in Plymouth vs Swansea?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Plymouth and Swansea will score (BTTS).
Will Plymouth vs Swansea have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Plymouth and Swansea?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Plymouth and Swansea in?
Plymouth (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-D-L. Swansea (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Plymouth's attack rating (1.29) and Swansea's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.87 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Swansea's attack versus Plymouth's defence, projects 1.49 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Plymouth Win
46%
2.17
24%
4.23
30%
3.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 2
7.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.87
Plymouth xG
Total xG
3.36
1.49
Swansea xG
2.17
46%
Home win
4.23
24%
Draw
3.29
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.95
Clean Sheet
22%
4.45
15%
6.47
Win to Nil
10%
9.67
5%
21.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 5.2 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 9.7 | 7.2 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 9.0 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 5.6 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Plymouth vs Swansea?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Plymouth and Swansea expected to score?
The model projects 1.87 expected goals for Plymouth and 1.49 for Swansea, a combined total of 3.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Plymouth vs Swansea?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Plymouth's recent record stands at 34W 10D 12L from 56 games, a 2.00 PPG return, with L-L-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for Plymouth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Swansea, meanwhile, have gone 21W 15D 20L across 56 games — 1.39 PPG, with L-D-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Swansea is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Plymouth by 0.61 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Swansea heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Plymouth have managed 23W 1D 4L from 28 games — 2.50 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 2.00 PPG overall — Plymouth are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Swansea's away record stands at 8W 9D 11L across 28 trips, a 1.18 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Plymouth come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Plymouth are averaging 1.77 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Swansea are on 1.48 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Defensively: Plymouth have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plymouth
Blended
Swansea
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Plymouth and Swansea in coming into this match?
Plymouth have gone 34W 10D 12L in their last 56 games (2.00 PPG), while Swansea have gone 21W 15D 20L in their last 56 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Plymouth at home or Swansea away?
Plymouth's home record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Plymouth at home: 2.50 PPG; Swansea away: 1.18 PPG.
Have Plymouth or Swansea been keeping clean sheets recently?
Plymouth have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Swansea in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Swansea have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Apr 2025, when Swansea won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Plymouth's record when hosting Swansea specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Plymouth
0
Draws
3
Swansea
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Plymouth and Swansea?
From 4 meetings on record, Plymouth have won 1, Swansea have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Plymouth and Swansea last play each other?
They last met on 9 April 2025, when Swansea 3-0 Plymouth.
Who has won more matches between Plymouth and Swansea?
Swansea have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Plymouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Swansea are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Plymouth 46%, Swansea 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Plymouth) and 54% (Swansea).
On the defensive side: Plymouth keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plymouth home games / Swansea away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Plymouth play Swansea?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Plymouth's recent matches and 61% of Swansea's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Plymouth vs Swansea usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Plymouth's recent games and 54% of Swansea's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Plymouth and Swansea tend to score early?
Plymouth have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Swansea in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Swansea cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Plymouth.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Swansea beat Plymouth 1-3 at Home Park, Regular Season - 11, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Plymouth 1.87 xG and Swansea 1.49 xG, a combined 3.36. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Plymouth fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Swansea outscored their 1.49 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plymouth attack 1.29 / defence 1.16 against Swansea attack 1.04 / defence 1.04, drawn from 10/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Plymouth 46% | Draw 24% | Swansea 30%, with Plymouth to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Swansea win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plymouth 57%, Swansea 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Plymouth's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Swansea's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Plymouth arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.39. Form was overturned, with Swansea winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Plymouth (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.04 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.82 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Swansea (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.32 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.