Millwall 1-1 Bournemouth – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Bournemouth at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Millwall vs Bournemouth fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Championship encounter, Regular Season - 19 sees Bournemouth travel to The Den to take on Millwall. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 24 November 2021, 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Millwall stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Championship matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L W D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Millwall, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Millwall have posted 4W 3D 2L at The Den — 1.67 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Bournemouth — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Championship fixtures this season — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W L W L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Bournemouth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Championship this season, Bournemouth have posted 6W 2D 1L from 9 away outings — 2.22 PPG. Away from home they average 1.33 goals scored and 0.44 conceded per game. 7 away clean sheets from 9 games (78%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 22% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Millwall 1.80 PPG, Bournemouth 2.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Profile
Millwall in-play tendencies (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Bournemouth in-play tendencies (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 22% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Millwall 67% versus Bournemouth 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Millwall 28% | Bournemouth 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Millwall 0.81 xG and Bournemouth 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Millwall attack 0.869 / defence 1.081 | Bournemouth attack 0.977 / defence 0.887. League average goals — home 1.057 / away 1.091. Data: 18 Millwall games / 18 Bournemouth games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Millwall 24% | Draw 34% | Bournemouth 42%. Fair-value odds: Millwall 4.17 | Draw 2.94 | Bournemouth 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.97. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.97 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bournemouth as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bournemouth offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.97 combined xG gives a 31% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Millwall 67% | Bournemouth 22% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Millwall vs Bournemouth | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: The Den • Kick-off: Wednesday 24 Nov 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Millwall 24% | Draw 34% | Bournemouth 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 40% | xG Millwall 0.81 / Bournemouth 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Millwall attack 0.869 / def 1.081 | Bournemouth attack 0.977 / def 0.887 | league avg home 1.057 / away 1.091 • Poisson stance: Bournemouth (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.81
Millwall xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Bournemouth xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Millwall vs Bournemouth kick off?
Millwall vs Bournemouth kicked off at 19:45 on Wednesday 24 November 2021 at The Den.
What was the final score in Millwall vs Bournemouth?
Millwall 1 - 1 Bournemouth.
Where is Millwall vs Bournemouth being played?
The match is being played at The Den.
What competition is Millwall vs Bournemouth part of?
Millwall vs Bournemouth is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Millwall vs Bournemouth?
Our statistical model gives Millwall a 24% chance of winning, Bournemouth a 42% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Bournemouth the favourite.
Will both teams score in Millwall vs Bournemouth?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Millwall and Bournemouth will score (BTTS).
Will Millwall vs Bournemouth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Millwall and Bournemouth?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Millwall and Bournemouth in?
Millwall (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-W-D-D. Bournemouth (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Millwall's attack at 0.87x the league average against Bournemouth's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 0.81 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bournemouth's attack versus Millwall's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (14.8%), 0-1 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bournemouth Win
24%
4.18
34%
2.90
42%
2.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.1%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.0%
Draw
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.81
Millwall xG
Total xG
1.97
1.15
Bournemouth xG
4.18
24%
Home win
2.90
34%
Draw
2.40
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.50
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
44%
2.26
Win to Nil
8%
13.24
18%
5.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.0 | 16.1 | 9.3 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 13.1 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 5.3 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Millwall vs Bournemouth?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.7%.
How many goals are Millwall and Bournemouth expected to score?
The model projects 0.81 expected goals for Millwall and 1.15 for Bournemouth, a combined total of 1.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Millwall vs Bournemouth?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Millwall's recent record stands at 6W 8D 4L from 18 games, a 1.44 PPG return, with W-L-W-D-D in the last five. The sample for Millwall is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bournemouth, meanwhile, have gone 12W 4D 2L across 18 games — 2.22 PPG, with W-W-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for Bournemouth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Bournemouth by 0.78 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Millwall heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Millwall have managed 4W 3D 2L from 9 games — 1.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bournemouth's away record stands at 6W 2D 1L across 9 trips, a 2.22 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bournemouth come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Millwall are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Bournemouth are on 1.83 scored and 0.72 conceded. Bournemouth's attacking output running into Millwall's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Millwall have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Defensively: Bournemouth in 56% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 18 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Millwall
Blended
Bournemouth
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Millwall and Bournemouth in coming into this match?
Millwall have gone 6W 8D 4L in their last 18 games (1.44 PPG), while Bournemouth have gone 12W 4D 2L in their last 18 (2.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Millwall at home or Bournemouth away?
Bournemouth's away record (2.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Millwall at home: 1.67 PPG; Bournemouth away: 2.22 PPG.
Have Millwall or Bournemouth been keeping clean sheets recently?
Millwall have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Bournemouth in 56%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Millwall and Bournemouth runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 May 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Millwall
1
Draws
1
Bournemouth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Millwall and Bournemouth?
From 2 meetings on record, Millwall have won 0, Bournemouth have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Millwall and Bournemouth last play each other?
They last met on 7 May 2022, when Bournemouth 1-0 Millwall.
Who has won more matches between Millwall and Bournemouth?
Bournemouth have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Millwall see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Bournemouth see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Millwall 67%, Bournemouth 22% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Millwall and 22% for Bournemouth.
On the defensive side: Bournemouth in 78%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Millwall home games / Bournemouth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Millwall play Bournemouth?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Millwall's recent matches and 22% of Bournemouth's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Millwall vs Bournemouth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Millwall's recent games and 22% of Bournemouth's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Millwall and Bournemouth share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Millwall and Bournemouth finished level at 1-1 at The Den, Regular Season - 19, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Millwall 0.81 xG and Bournemouth 1.15 xG, a combined 1.97. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Millwall attack 0.87 / defence 1.08 against Bournemouth attack 0.98 / defence 0.89, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Millwall 24% | Draw 34% | Bournemouth 42%, with Bournemouth to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Millwall 28%, Bournemouth 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Millwall's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Bournemouth's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Bournemouth arrived the stronger side — 2.22 PPG against 1.44. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.