Middlesbrough 0-1 Fulham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fulham at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Middlesbrough vs Fulham fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Fulham make the trip to Riverside Stadium to face Middlesbrough in Championship, Regular Season - 30. The match kicks off on Wednesday 6 April 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Middlesbrough have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W L D W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Middlesbrough at Riverside Stadium this season: 8W 1D 1L from 10 home games — 2.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Middlesbrough are significantly better at Riverside Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Fulham's overall Championship record this term: 7W 1D 2L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: W W D L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
When travelling in Championship this season, Fulham have posted 6W 3D 1L from 10 away outings — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Fulham are 0.50 PPG clear of Middlesbrough in recent Championship fixtures (2.20 vs 1.70). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Middlesbrough, 0 for Fulham and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Aug 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Middlesbrough half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Fulham half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; they lead at the break 66% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Middlesbrough 50% versus Fulham 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Middlesbrough 42% | Fulham 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Middlesbrough 1.10 xG and Fulham 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Middlesbrough attack 1.175 / defence 1.011 | Fulham attack 1.422 / defence 0.896. League average goals — home 1.047 / away 1.107. Fulham have an above-average attack strength of 1.422 — the away xG of 1.59 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 38 Middlesbrough games / 38 Fulham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Middlesbrough 26% | Draw 25% | Fulham 49%. Fair-value odds: Middlesbrough 3.85 | Draw 4.00 | Fulham 2.04. Fulham hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Fulham as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fulham if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.70 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Middlesbrough 60% | Fulham 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Middlesbrough vs Fulham | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Riverside Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 6 Apr 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Middlesbrough 26% | Draw 25% | Fulham 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 53% | xG Middlesbrough 1.10 / Fulham 1.59 • Poisson strength factors: Middlesbrough attack 1.175 / def 1.011 | Fulham attack 1.422 / def 0.896 | league avg home 1.047 / away 1.107 • Poisson stance: Fulham (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Middlesbrough xG
Expected Goals
1.59
Fulham xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Middlesbrough vs Fulham kick off?
Middlesbrough vs Fulham kicked off at 19:45 on Wednesday 6 April 2022 at Riverside Stadium.
What was the final score in Middlesbrough vs Fulham?
Middlesbrough 0 - 1 Fulham.
Where is Middlesbrough vs Fulham being played?
The match is being played at Riverside Stadium.
What competition is Middlesbrough vs Fulham part of?
Middlesbrough vs Fulham is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Middlesbrough vs Fulham?
Our statistical model gives Middlesbrough a 26% chance of winning, Fulham a 49% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Fulham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Middlesbrough vs Fulham?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Middlesbrough and Fulham will score (BTTS).
Will Middlesbrough vs Fulham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Middlesbrough and Fulham?
Record (1 meetings): Middlesbrough 0W | Draws 1 | Fulham 0W.
What form are Middlesbrough and Fulham in?
Middlesbrough (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-D-W-W. Fulham (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Middlesbrough's attack at 1.18x the league average against Fulham's defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 1.10 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Fulham's attack (1.42x) against Middlesbrough's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.59.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fulham Win
26%
3.80
25%
4.01
49%
2.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Middlesbrough xG
Total xG
2.70
1.59
Fulham xG
3.80
26%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
2.05
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
20%
4.92
33%
3.01
Win to Nil
5%
18.69
16%
6.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 10.8 | 8.6 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.9 | 9.4 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 6.5 | 5.2 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Middlesbrough vs Fulham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Middlesbrough and Fulham expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Middlesbrough and 1.59 for Fulham, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Middlesbrough vs Fulham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 38 outings, Middlesbrough have picked up 1.63 PPG on a 18W 8D 12L record — W-L-D-W-W across the most recent five.
Fulham's form line: 24W 8D 6L from 38 games, 2.11 PPG, last five W-W-D-L-W.
Put side by side, Fulham are the form team by 0.48 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Middlesbrough.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Middlesbrough have posted 2.11 PPG from 18 outings (12W 2D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.63 PPG overall — Middlesbrough are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Fulham have gone 11W 4D 3L from 18 away games — 2.06 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Middlesbrough are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Fulham are on 2.42 scored and 0.84 conceded.
Defensively: Middlesbrough have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games; Fulham in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Middlesbrough
Current Season
Fulham
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Middlesbrough and Fulham in coming into this match?
Middlesbrough have gone 18W 8D 12L in their last 38 games (1.63 PPG), while Fulham have gone 24W 8D 6L in their last 38 (2.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Middlesbrough at home or Fulham away?
Middlesbrough's home record (2.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Middlesbrough at home: 2.11 PPG; Fulham away: 2.06 PPG.
Have Middlesbrough or Fulham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Middlesbrough have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Fulham in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Middlesbrough
1
Draws
1
Fulham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Middlesbrough and Fulham?
From 2 meetings on record, Middlesbrough have won 0, Fulham have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Middlesbrough and Fulham last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2022, when Middlesbrough 0-1 Fulham.
Who has won more matches between Middlesbrough and Fulham?
Fulham have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Middlesbrough are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Fulham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 61% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Middlesbrough 56%, Fulham 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Middlesbrough) and 44% (Fulham).
On the defensive side: Middlesbrough keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Fulham in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Middlesbrough home games / Fulham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Middlesbrough play Fulham?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Middlesbrough's recent matches and 50% of Fulham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Middlesbrough vs Fulham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Middlesbrough's recent games and 44% of Fulham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Middlesbrough and Fulham tend to score early?
Middlesbrough have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Fulham in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Fulham edge out Middlesbrough 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fulham beat Middlesbrough 0-1 at Riverside Stadium, Regular Season - 30, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Middlesbrough 1.10 xG and Fulham 1.59 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Middlesbrough fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Middlesbrough attack 1.18 / defence 1.01 against Fulham attack 1.42 / defence 0.90, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Middlesbrough 26% | Draw 25% | Fulham 49%, with Fulham to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Middlesbrough 42%, Fulham 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Middlesbrough's trading profile (38 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Fulham's trading profile (38 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Fulham arrived the stronger side — 2.11 PPG against 1.63. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Middlesbrough (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.61 scoring average — below par going forward. Fulham (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.