Leicester 4-0 Plymouth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Leicester at 57% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Leicester vs Plymouth encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Leicester host Plymouth at King Power Stadium in Championship (matchday 20). Kick-off is Saturday 9 December 2023 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Leicester stand at 7W 1D 2L — 2.20 PPG. Last five: L L W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home, Leicester have gone 8W 0D 2L in their last 10 home games (2.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across their last 10 games, Plymouth have recorded 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Plymouth's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across their last 10 road games (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
On current form, Leicester have the edge — a 1.10 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 1.10) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
In-Play Data
Leicester trading profile (last 57 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Plymouth trading profile (last 57 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 46%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Leicester 53% versus Plymouth 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Leicester 58% | Plymouth 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Leicester 1.48 xG and Plymouth 0.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Leicester attack 0.951 / defence 0.731 | Plymouth attack 0.745 / defence 1.102. League average goals — home 1.409 / away 1.196. Plymouth's attack rating of 0.745 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.65. Leicester have a tight defence (rating 0.731), which is pulling Plymouth's projected output down. Data: built from Leicester's last 19 games and Plymouth's last 19.
Result probabilities: Leicester 57% | Draw 27% | Plymouth 16%. Fair-value odds: Leicester 1.76 | Draw 3.72 | Plymouth 6.19. The model has a clear lean to Leicester (57%) — a 30pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS Yes probability 37% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 63% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Leicester are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.13 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 64% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Leicester 30% (last 10 home games) | Plymouth 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Leicester vs Plymouth | Competition: Championship, matchday 20 | Venue: King Power Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 9 December 2023 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Leicester 57% | Draw 27% | Plymouth 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% (Under 64%) | BTTS Yes 37% (No 63%) | xG Leicester 1.48 / Plymouth 0.65 • Poisson strength factors: Leicester attack 0.951 / def 0.731 | Plymouth attack 0.745 / def 1.102 | league avg home 1.409 / away 1.196 • Poisson stance: Leicester (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Leicester xG
Expected Goals
0.65
Plymouth xG
37%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Leicester vs Plymouth FAQs
What time does Leicester vs Plymouth kick off?
Leicester vs Plymouth kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 9 December 2023 at King Power Stadium.
What was the final score in Leicester vs Plymouth?
Leicester 4 - 0 Plymouth.
Where is Leicester vs Plymouth being played?
The match is being played at King Power Stadium.
What competition is Leicester vs Plymouth part of?
Leicester vs Plymouth is a Championship fixture (matchday 20) (England).
Who is favourite to win Leicester vs Plymouth?
Our statistical model gives Leicester a 57% chance of winning, Plymouth a 16% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Leicester the favourite.
Will both teams score in Leicester vs Plymouth?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Leicester and Plymouth will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (63%).
Will Leicester vs Plymouth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (64%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Leicester's attack at 0.95x the league average against Plymouth's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 1.48 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Plymouth's attack versus Leicester's defence, projects 0.65 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Leicester's last 19 games and Plymouth's last 19 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.4%), 2-0 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Leicester Win
57%
1.76
27%
3.72
16%
6.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.0%
Home win
0 – 0
11.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Leicester xG
Total xG
2.13
0.65
Plymouth xG
1.76
57%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
6.19
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.69
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
52%
1.92
23%
4.38
Win to Nil
30%
3.37
4%
27.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.9 | 7.8 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.6 | 11.4 | 3.7 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.0 | 8.5 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.4 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Leicester vs Plymouth Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Leicester vs Plymouth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.1%.
How many goals are Leicester and Plymouth expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Leicester and 0.65 for Plymouth, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Leicester vs Plymouth?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Leicester come into this having played 57 games, going 24W 8D 25L for 1.40 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-D-W.
On the other side, Plymouth sit at 1.84 PPG from 57 outings (31W 12D 14L), a run that reads D-L-W-L-W across their last five.
Plymouth carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.44 PPG clear of Leicester — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Leicester's home form reads 12W 4D 12L across their last 28 home games, a 1.43 PPG return.
Away from home, Plymouth have taken 1.32 points per game from their last 28 away games (9W 10D 9L). That's a step down from their 1.84 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Plymouth's recent record.
Goals in Recent Form
Leicester are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Plymouth are on 1.74 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Last 57 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Leicester
Blended
Plymouth
Blended
Leicester (Home) vs Plymouth (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Leicester
Blended
Plymouth
Blended
❓ Leicester vs Plymouth Form FAQs
What form are Leicester and Plymouth in coming into this match?
Leicester have gone 24W 8D 25L in their last 57 games (1.40 PPG), while Plymouth have gone 31W 12D 14L in their last 57 (1.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Leicester at home or Plymouth away?
Leicester's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Leicester at home: 1.43 PPG; Plymouth away: 1.32 PPG.
Have Leicester or Plymouth been keeping clean sheets recently?
Leicester have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Plymouth in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 3 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from December 2023. They cover more than one competition — Championship, League One. The most recent was as recently as 1 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 9 Dec 2023, when Leicester won Leicester 4-0 Plymouth.
Leicester's record when hosting Plymouth specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
2
Leicester
0
Draws
1
Plymouth
Recent Meetings
❓ Leicester vs Plymouth H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Leicester and Plymouth?
Across the 3 head-to-head matches in our data, Leicester have won 2, Plymouth have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Leicester and Plymouth last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 September 2026: Leicester 2-0 Plymouth.
Who has won more matches between Leicester and Plymouth?
Leicester have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 3 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Leicester are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Plymouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Leicester 39%, Plymouth 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Leicester) and 54% (Plymouth).
On the defensive side: Leicester have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Leicester home games / Plymouth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Leicester vs Plymouth Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Leicester and Plymouth matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Leicester's recent matches and 61% of Plymouth's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Leicester and Plymouth matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Leicester's recent games and 54% of Plymouth's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Leicester and Plymouth matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of Leicester's recent matches and 64% of Plymouth's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Leicester run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Plymouth.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Leicester beat Plymouth 4-0 at King Power Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Leicester 1.48 xG and Plymouth 0.65 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Leicester beat their projection by 2.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Leicester attack 0.95 / defence 0.73 against Plymouth attack 0.74 / defence 1.10, drawn from 19/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Leicester 57% | Draw 27% | Plymouth 16%, with Leicester to win its most likely call at 57%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Leicester 58%, Plymouth 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Leicester's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Plymouth's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Plymouth arrived the stronger side — 1.84 PPG against 1.40. Form was overturned, with Leicester winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Leicester (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.29 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line. Plymouth (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.32 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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