Leicester 0-2 Charlton – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Leicester at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Leicester vs Charlton fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Championship clash, Regular Season - 30 as Leicester welcome Charlton to King Power Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 31 January 2026 at 12:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Championship games this season, Leicester have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L W L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Leicester's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at King Power Stadium this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Charlton stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Championship matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D D W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Charlton's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Leicester) versus 0.90 (Charlton). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Leicester have won 1, Charlton 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 23 Aug 2025, ended 1–0 with Leicester winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Leicester trading profile (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Charlton trading profile (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Leicester 61% versus Charlton 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Leicester 63% | Charlton 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Leicester 1.75 xG and Charlton 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Leicester attack 1.005 / defence 1.193 | Charlton attack 0.736 / defence 1.284. League average goals — home 1.360 / away 1.158. Charlton bring a strong defensive rating of 1.284 — this is suppressing Leicester's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 29 Leicester games / 28 Charlton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Leicester 54% | Draw 26% | Charlton 21%. Fair-value odds: Leicester 1.85 | Draw 3.85 | Charlton 4.76. Leicester hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Leicester at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Leicester offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.77 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Leicester 90% | Charlton 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Leicester vs Charlton | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: King Power Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Jan 2026, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Leicester 54% | Draw 26% | Charlton 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 54% | xG Leicester 1.75 / Charlton 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Leicester attack 1.005 / def 1.193 | Charlton attack 0.736 / def 1.284 | league avg home 1.360 / away 1.158 • Poisson stance: Leicester (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Leicester xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Charlton xG
54%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Leicester vs Charlton kick off?
Leicester vs Charlton kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 31 January 2026 at King Power Stadium.
What was the final score in Leicester vs Charlton?
Leicester 0 - 2 Charlton.
Where is Leicester vs Charlton being played?
The match is being played at King Power Stadium.
What competition is Leicester vs Charlton part of?
Leicester vs Charlton is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Leicester vs Charlton?
Our statistical model gives Leicester a 54% chance of winning, Charlton a 21% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Leicester the favourite.
Will both teams score in Leicester vs Charlton?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Leicester and Charlton will score (BTTS).
Will Leicester vs Charlton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Leicester and Charlton?
Record (1 meetings): Leicester 1W | Draws 0 | Charlton 0W.
What form are Leicester and Charlton in?
Leicester (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-L-D-L. Charlton (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Leicester's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Charlton's defensive record (1.28x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.75. The same calculation in reverse, Charlton's attack versus Leicester's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 29/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Leicester Win
54%
1.87
26%
3.87
21%
4.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Leicester xG
Total xG
2.77
1.02
Charlton xG
1.87
54%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
4.85
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
36%
2.76
17%
5.78
Win to Nil
19%
5.17
4%
28.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 6.4 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 11.2 | 5.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.8 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 5.7 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Leicester vs Charlton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Leicester and Charlton expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Leicester and 1.02 for Charlton, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Leicester vs Charlton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Leicester's recent record stands at 16W 15D 36L from 67 games, a 0.94 PPG return, with L-W-L-D-L in the last five.
Charlton, meanwhile, have gone 30W 18D 19L across 67 games — 1.61 PPG, with D-D-W-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Charlton by 0.67 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Leicester heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Leicester have managed 10W 7D 16L from 33 games — 1.12 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Charlton's away record stands at 10W 9D 14L across 33 trips, a 1.18 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.61 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Charlton's season.
The Goals Picture
Leicester are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.84 conceded per game recently; Charlton are on 1.28 scored and 1.07 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Leicester have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Defensively: Charlton in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 67 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Leicester
Current Season
Charlton
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Leicester and Charlton in coming into this match?
Leicester have gone 16W 15D 36L in their last 67 games (0.94 PPG), while Charlton have gone 30W 18D 19L in their last 67 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Leicester at home or Charlton away?
Charlton's away record (1.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Leicester at home: 1.12 PPG; Charlton away: 1.18 PPG.
Have Leicester or Charlton been keeping clean sheets recently?
Leicester have kept a clean sheet in 9% of their recent games, Charlton in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Leicester and Charlton runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Leicester
0
Draws
1
Charlton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Leicester and Charlton?
From 2 meetings on record, Leicester have won 1, Charlton have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Leicester and Charlton last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Leicester 0-2 Charlton.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Leicester are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Charlton see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Leicester 54%, Charlton 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Leicester) and 52% (Charlton).
On the defensive side: Charlton in 33%; Leicester have failed to score in 33% of games; Charlton in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Leicester home games / Charlton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Leicester play Charlton?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Leicester's recent matches and 39% of Charlton's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Leicester vs Charlton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Leicester's recent games and 52% of Charlton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Leicester and Charlton tend to score early?
Leicester have had a goal before half-time in 93% of their recent matches, Charlton in 52% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Charlton cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Leicester.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Charlton beat Leicester 0-2 at King Power Stadium, Regular Season - 30, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Leicester 1.75 xG and Charlton 1.02 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Leicester fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Charlton outscored their 1.02 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Leicester attack 1.00 / defence 1.19 against Charlton attack 0.74 / defence 1.28, drawn from 29/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Leicester 54% | Draw 26% | Charlton 21%, with Leicester to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a Charlton win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Leicester 63%, Charlton 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Leicester's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Charlton's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Charlton arrived the stronger side — 1.61 PPG against 0.94. Form held, and they took the win. Leicester (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.06 scoring average — below par going forward. Charlton (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.