Leeds 2-0 QPR – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Leeds at 61% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Leeds vs QPR encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Championship clash, Regular Season - 15 as Leeds welcome QPR to Elland Road. Kick-off is set for Saturday 9 November 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Leeds stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Championship matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Leeds, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Leeds's home record at Elland Road: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Championship appearances (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Elland Road. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
QPR — All Games: 0W 5D 5L from 10 Championship fixtures this season — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L D D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for QPR, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Championship this season, QPR have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.30 exceeds their overall 0.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Leeds are in the better shape of the two on current Championship data — 1.30 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 0.50). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Leeds, 1 for QPR and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Apr 2024, ended 0–4 with QPR winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Leeds trading profile (60 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
QPR trading profile (60 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 61% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Leeds 38% versus QPR 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Leeds 50% | QPR 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Leeds 1.69 xG and QPR 0.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Leeds attack 1.298 / defence 0.809 | QPR attack 0.844 / defence 0.975. League average goals — home 1.333 / away 0.997. Leeds carry an above-average attack strength of 1.298 — their λ of 1.69 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 60 Leeds games / 60 QPR games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Leeds 61% | Draw 26% | QPR 14%. Fair-value odds: Leeds 1.64 | Draw 3.85 | QPR 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Leeds (61%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Leeds at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.37 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates corroborate: Leeds 30% | QPR 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Leeds vs QPR | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Elland Road • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Nov 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Leeds 61% | Draw 26% | QPR 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 41% | xG Leeds 1.69 / QPR 0.68 • Poisson strength factors: Leeds attack 1.298 / def 0.809 | QPR attack 0.844 / def 0.975 | league avg home 1.333 / away 0.997 • Poisson stance: Leeds (61%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
Leeds xG
Expected Goals
0.68
QPR xG
41%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Leeds vs QPR kick off?
Leeds vs QPR kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 9 November 2024 at Elland Road.
What was the final score in Leeds vs QPR?
Leeds 2 - 0 QPR.
Where is Leeds vs QPR being played?
The match is being played at Elland Road.
What competition is Leeds vs QPR part of?
Leeds vs QPR is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Leeds vs QPR?
Our statistical model gives Leeds a 61% chance of winning, QPR a 14% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Leeds the favourite.
Will both teams score in Leeds vs QPR?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Leeds and QPR will score (BTTS).
Will Leeds vs QPR have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Leeds and QPR?
Record (2 meetings): Leeds 1W | Draws 0 | QPR 1W.
What form are Leeds and QPR in?
Leeds (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-D-W-L. QPR (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-D-D-L.
What do the betting odds say about Leeds vs QPR?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Leeds's attacking strength (1.30x league average) is weighed against QPR's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.69. The same calculation in reverse, QPR's attack versus Leeds's defence, projects 0.68 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 14.4%. Close behind: 2-0 (13.3%), 1-1 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Leeds Win
61%
1.65
26%
3.86
14%
7.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.3%
Home win
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
Leeds xG
Total xG
2.37
0.68
QPR xG
1.65
61%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
7.36
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.42
59%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
51%
1.98
19%
5.40
Win to Nil
31%
3.26
3%
39.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 6.4 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.8 | 10.8 | 3.7 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.3 | 9.1 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.5 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Leeds vs QPR?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Leeds and QPR expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Leeds and 0.68 for QPR, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Leeds vs QPR?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Leeds's recent record stands at 35W 13D 12L from 60 games, a 1.97 PPG return, with W-W-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for Leeds is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
QPR, meanwhile, have gone 16W 18D 26L across 60 games — 1.10 PPG, with L-D-D-D-L in their last five. The sample for QPR is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Leeds by 0.87 — a real, if not enormous, edge over QPR heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Leeds have managed 22W 3D 4L from 29 games — 2.38 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.97 PPG overall — Leeds are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
QPR's away record stands at 9W 8D 12L across 29 trips, a 1.21 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Leeds come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Leeds are averaging 1.73 goals scored and 0.82 conceded per game recently; QPR are on 0.98 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Defensively: Leeds have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Leeds
Blended
QPR
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Leeds and QPR in coming into this match?
Leeds have gone 35W 13D 12L in their last 60 games (1.97 PPG), while QPR have gone 16W 18D 26L in their last 60 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Leeds at home or QPR away?
Leeds's home record (2.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Leeds at home: 2.38 PPG; QPR away: 1.21 PPG.
Have Leeds or QPR been keeping clean sheets recently?
Leeds have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their recent games, QPR in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Leeds and QPR runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Apr 2024, when QPR won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Leeds's record when hosting QPR specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Leeds
1
Draws
1
QPR
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Leeds and QPR?
From 4 meetings on record, Leeds have won 2, QPR have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Leeds and QPR last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2025, when QPR 2-2 Leeds.
Who has won more matches between Leeds and QPR?
Leeds have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Leeds are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
QPR see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Leeds 41%, QPR 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Leeds) and 38% (QPR).
On the defensive side: Leeds keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; QPR in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Leeds home games / QPR away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Leeds play QPR?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Leeds's recent matches and 41% of QPR's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Leeds vs QPR usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Leeds's recent games and 38% of QPR's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Leeds and QPR tend to score early?
Leeds have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, QPR in 55% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Leeds cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over QPR.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Leeds beat QPR 2-0 at Elland Road, Regular Season - 15, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Leeds 1.69 xG and QPR 0.68 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Leeds attack 1.30 / defence 0.81 against QPR attack 0.84 / defence 0.97, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Leeds 61% | Draw 26% | QPR 14%, with Leeds to win its most likely call at 61%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Leeds 50%, QPR 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Leeds's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and duly kept one.
QPR's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Leeds arrived the stronger side — 1.97 PPG against 1.10. Form held, and they took the win. QPR (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.