Ipswich 1-1 Leicester – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Leicester at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ipswich vs Leicester fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Championship clash, Regular Season - 24 as Ipswich welcome Leicester to Portman Road. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 26 December 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ipswich stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Championship matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Ipswich, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ipswich's form when playing at home: 8W 1D 1L across 10 games at Portman Road this term (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 3.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.80 — Ipswich are significantly better at Portman Road than their overall form suggests.
Leicester — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Championship fixtures this season — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Leicester, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Leicester away from home this season: 8W 1D 1L from 10 away games — 2.50 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Ipswich 1.80 PPG, Leicester 2.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Trading Patterns
Ipswich in-play and half-time data (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Leicester in-play and half-time data (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ipswich 52% versus Leicester 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ipswich 62% | Leicester 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ipswich 1.97 xG and Leicester 2.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ipswich attack 1.469 / defence 1.262 | Leicester attack 1.371 / defence 0.938. League average goals — home 1.426 / away 1.200. Ipswich carry an above-average attack strength of 1.469 — their λ of 1.97 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Leicester have an above-average attack strength of 1.371 — the away xG of 2.08 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 23 Ipswich games / 23 Leicester games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ipswich 38% | Draw 21% | Leicester 42%. Fair-value odds: Ipswich 2.63 | Draw 4.76 | Leicester 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 21% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 77% | BTTS probability 75% | Total xG 4.04. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 77% — a total xG of 4.04 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 75% reflects that both xG figures (1.97 / 2.08) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Leicester at 42% — marginal model lean. The opposing side holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 4.04 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 77% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 4.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 75% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Ipswich 90% | Leicester 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ipswich vs Leicester | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Portman Road • Kick-off: Tuesday 26 Dec 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ipswich 38% | Draw 21% | Leicester 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 77% | BTTS 75% | xG Ipswich 1.97 / Leicester 2.08 • Poisson strength factors: Ipswich attack 1.469 / def 1.262 | Leicester attack 1.371 / def 0.938 | league avg home 1.426 / away 1.200 • Poisson stance: Leicester (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.97
Ipswich xG
Expected Goals
2.08
Leicester xG
75%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
77%
Over 2.5
57%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ipswich vs Leicester kick off?
Ipswich vs Leicester kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 26 December 2023 at Portman Road.
What was the final score in Ipswich vs Leicester?
Ipswich 1 - 1 Leicester.
Where is Ipswich vs Leicester being played?
The match is being played at Portman Road.
What competition is Ipswich vs Leicester part of?
Ipswich vs Leicester is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Ipswich vs Leicester?
Our statistical model gives Ipswich a 38% chance of winning, Leicester a 42% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Leicester the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ipswich vs Leicester?
Our model estimates a 75% probability that both Ipswich and Leicester will score (BTTS).
Will Ipswich vs Leicester have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 77%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ipswich and Leicester?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ipswich and Leicester in?
Ipswich (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-W-D-L. Leicester (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Ipswich's attacking strength (1.47x league average) is weighed against Leicester's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.97. The same calculation in reverse, Leicester's attack versus Ipswich's defence, projects 2.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 23/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 8.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (7.4%), 2-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Leicester Win
38%
2.66
21%
4.86
42%
2.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
7.4%
Away win
Most likely
2 – 2
7.3%
Draw
1 – 1
7.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.97
Ipswich xG
Total xG
4.04
2.08
Leicester xG
2.66
38%
Home win
4.86
21%
Draw
2.39
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
77%
Over 2.5
1.30
23%
Under 2.5
4.35
57%
Over 3.5
1.75
43%
Under 3.5
2.33
38%
Over 4.5
2.63
62%
Under 4.5
1.61
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
75%
BTTS Yes
1.33
25%
BTTS No
4.03
Clean Sheet
13%
7.98
14%
7.13
Win to Nil
5%
21.23
6%
17.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.8 | 3.6 | 3.8 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 3.5 | 7.2 | 7.4 | 5.2 | 2.7 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 7.0 | 7.3 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 1.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 4.6 | 4.8 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ipswich vs Leicester?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.1%.
How many goals are Ipswich and Leicester expected to score?
The model projects 1.97 expected goals for Ipswich and 2.08 for Leicester, a combined total of 4.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Ipswich vs Leicester?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Ipswich come into this having played 61 games, going 38W 16D 7L for 2.13 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-D-L. The sample for Ipswich is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Leicester sit at 1.51 PPG from 61 outings (28W 8D 25L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Leicester is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ipswich carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.62 PPG clear of Leicester — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Ipswich's home form reads 23W 5D 2L across 30 games on their own ground, a 2.47 PPG return.
Away from home, Leicester have taken 1.43 points per game from 30 outings (13W 4D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ipswich come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Ipswich are averaging 2.16 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; Leicester are on 1.61 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Defensively: Ipswich have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 61 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ipswich
Blended
Leicester
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ipswich and Leicester in coming into this match?
Ipswich have gone 38W 16D 7L in their last 61 games (2.13 PPG), while Leicester have gone 28W 8D 25L in their last 61 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ipswich at home or Leicester away?
Ipswich's home record (2.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ipswich at home: 2.47 PPG; Leicester away: 1.43 PPG.
Have Ipswich or Leicester been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ipswich have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Leicester in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ipswich and Leicester runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2023. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Championship, Premier League all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Ipswich's record when hosting Leicester specifically: 0W 3D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Ipswich
4
Draws
2
Leicester
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ipswich and Leicester?
From 6 meetings on record, Ipswich have won 0, Leicester have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Ipswich and Leicester last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Ipswich 1-1 Leicester.
Who has won more matches between Ipswich and Leicester?
Leicester have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ipswich are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time.
Leicester are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ipswich 53%, Leicester 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 77% for Ipswich and 63% for Leicester. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 53% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ipswich keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ipswich home games / Leicester away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ipswich play Leicester?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Ipswich's games and 67% of Leicester's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ipswich vs Leicester usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 77% of Ipswich's matches and 63% of Leicester's.
Do Ipswich and Leicester tend to score early?
Ipswich have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Leicester in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ipswich and Leicester share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Portman Road, Regular Season - 24, as Ipswich and Leicester drew 1-1 in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ipswich 1.97 xG and Leicester 2.08 xG, a combined 4.04. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Ipswich fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Leicester landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ipswich attack 1.47 / defence 1.26 against Leicester attack 1.37 / defence 0.94, drawn from 23/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ipswich 38% | Draw 21% | Leicester 42%, with Leicester to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 77%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 57% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 75% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ipswich 62%, Leicester 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ipswich's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Leicester's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Ipswich arrived the stronger side — 2.13 PPG against 1.51. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Ipswich (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.80 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.