Hull City 1-1 Portsmouth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hull City at 58% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hull City vs Portsmouth encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Hull City welcome Portsmouth to The MKM Stadium in Championship (matchday 13). Kick-off is Saturday 2 November 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Hull City stand at 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L L D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Hull City's form when playing at home: 2W 5D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Across their last 10 games, Portsmouth have recorded 1W 3D 6L — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L D W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Portsmouth's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 0.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Hull City are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.20 vs 0.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
In-Play Data
Hull City trading profile (last 58 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 32%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 46%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Portsmouth trading profile (last 58 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 59% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; of the 22 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hull City 62% versus Portsmouth 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hull City 53% | Portsmouth 59%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Hull City surrender their half-time lead 32% of the time, while Portsmouth have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 36% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that Portsmouth surrender HT leads in 27% of cases while Hull City recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 46% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hull City 2.03 xG and Portsmouth 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hull City attack 0.944 / defence 1.053 | Portsmouth attack 1.046 / defence 1.561. League average goals — home 1.377 / away 0.968. Portsmouth's defence rating of 1.561 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Hull City's projected output up. Data: built from Hull City's last 58 games and Portsmouth's last 12.
Result probabilities: Hull City 58% | Draw 24% | Portsmouth 18%. Fair-value odds: Hull City 1.72 | Draw 4.13 | Portsmouth 5.64. The model has a clear lean to Hull City (58%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hull City are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.09 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Hull City's last 10 home games and Portsmouth's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Hull City 50% (last 10 home games) | Portsmouth 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hull City vs Portsmouth | Competition: Championship, matchday 13 | Venue: The MKM Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 2 November 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hull City 58% | Draw 24% | Portsmouth 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% (Under 40%) | BTTS Yes 59% (No 41%) | xG Hull City 2.03 / Portsmouth 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Hull City attack 0.944 / def 1.053 | Portsmouth attack 1.046 / def 1.561 | league avg home 1.377 / away 0.968 • Poisson stance: Hull City (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.03
Hull City xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Portsmouth xG
59%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Hull City vs Portsmouth FAQs
What time does Hull City vs Portsmouth kick off?
Hull City vs Portsmouth kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 2 November 2024 at The MKM Stadium.
What was the final score in Hull City vs Portsmouth?
Hull City 1 - 1 Portsmouth.
Where is Hull City vs Portsmouth being played?
The match is being played at The MKM Stadium.
What competition is Hull City vs Portsmouth part of?
Hull City vs Portsmouth is a Championship fixture (matchday 13) (England).
Who is favourite to win Hull City vs Portsmouth?
Our statistical model gives Hull City a 58% chance of winning, Portsmouth a 18% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Hull City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hull City vs Portsmouth?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Hull City and Portsmouth will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Hull City vs Portsmouth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Hull City's attack at 0.94x the league average against Portsmouth's defence at 1.56x — combine the two and it projects 2.03 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Portsmouth's attack versus Hull City's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Hull City's last 58 games and Portsmouth's last 12 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hull City Win
58%
1.72
24%
4.13
18%
5.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
2 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.03
Hull City xG
Total xG
3.09
1.07
Portsmouth xG
1.72
58%
Home win
4.13
24%
Draw
5.64
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.71
41%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
34%
2.90
13%
7.61
Win to Nil
20%
5.00
2%
42.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 9.8 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.9 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.3 | 6.7 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Hull City vs Portsmouth Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Hull City vs Portsmouth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Hull City and Portsmouth expected to score?
The model projects 2.03 expected goals for Hull City and 1.07 for Portsmouth, a combined total of 3.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Hull City vs Portsmouth?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 58 outings, Hull City have picked up 1.45 PPG on a 22W 18D 18L record — W-L-L-D-D across the most recent five.
Portsmouth's form line: 29W 18D 11L from 58 games, 1.81 PPG, last five L-D-W-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hull City on 1.45 PPG, Portsmouth on 1.81. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Hull City have posted 1.34 PPG from their last 29 home games (9W 12D 8L).
On the road, Portsmouth have gone 14W 10D 5L from their last 29 away games — 1.79 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Portsmouth come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Hull City are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Portsmouth are on 1.55 scored and 1.14 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hull City have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Defensively: Portsmouth in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 58 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hull City
Blended
Portsmouth
Blended
Hull City (Home) vs Portsmouth (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Hull City
Blended
Portsmouth
Blended
❓ Hull City vs Portsmouth Form FAQs
What form are Hull City and Portsmouth in coming into this match?
Hull City have gone 22W 18D 18L in their last 58 games (1.45 PPG), while Portsmouth have gone 29W 18D 11L in their last 58 (1.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hull City at home or Portsmouth away?
Portsmouth's away record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hull City at home: 1.34 PPG; Portsmouth away: 1.79 PPG.
Have Hull City or Portsmouth been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hull City have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Portsmouth in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from November 2024. All of them came in Championship. The most recent was on 28 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear recent trend here: Hull City have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
Hull City's record when hosting Portsmouth specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Hull City
2
Draws
0
Portsmouth
Recent Meetings
❓ Hull City vs Portsmouth H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Hull City and Portsmouth?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Hull City have won 2, Portsmouth have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Hull City and Portsmouth last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 28 February 2026: Portsmouth 0-1 Hull City.
Who has won more matches between Hull City and Portsmouth?
Hull City have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hull City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 44% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Portsmouth see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hull City 59%, Portsmouth 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Hull City) and 52% (Portsmouth).
On the defensive side: Portsmouth in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hull City home games / Portsmouth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Hull City vs Portsmouth Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Hull City and Portsmouth matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Hull City's recent matches and 48% of Portsmouth's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Hull City and Portsmouth matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Hull City's recent games and 52% of Portsmouth's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hull City and Portsmouth matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 72% of Hull City's recent matches and 59% of Portsmouth's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hull City and Portsmouth share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at The MKM Stadium, Regular Season - 13, as Hull City and Portsmouth drew 1-1 in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hull City 2.03 xG and Portsmouth 1.07 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Hull City fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hull City attack 0.94 / defence 1.05 against Portsmouth attack 1.05 / defence 1.56, drawn from 58/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hull City 58% | Draw 24% | Portsmouth 18%, with Hull City to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hull City 53%, Portsmouth 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hull City's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Portsmouth's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hull City 1.45 PPG, Portsmouth 1.81 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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